LAST SEASON

It’s never anything less than dramatic in Toronto, and the Maple Leafs rode a wave of significant change into last season. They’d ended a 19-year playoff series win drought the previous spring by defeating the Tampa Bay Lightning but were brushed aside so easily by the Florida Panthers in Round 2 that it erased a lot of the goodwill. Kyle Dubas vacated his GM role in a messy divorce. Brad Treliving replaced him and immediately went to work reshaping the team’s identity, adding “snot” in the form of Ryan Reaves, Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, Simon Benoit and more. After the Leafs had been bullied out of the playoffs by the league’s toughest team, the idea was to craft a roster built to win in May and June, not the regular season.

The Leafs were indeed tougher – much tougher. They finished near the top of the league in hits and penalty minutes per game. They didn’t give away any offense, as superstar Auston Matthews delivered a franchise-record 69 goals and William Nylander exploded for 98 points in his contract year. But they did give away quite a bit of defensive mobility. They went from a stingy team in the last few years of Dubas to a middling one in their own end, and the result was a nine-point drop in the standings from 111 to 102, good for third in the Atlantic Division.

Of course, the fan base didn’t care. What mattered was the playoffs. Would the new-look Leafs deliver? They certainly didn’t look intimidated by the Big, Bad Boston Bruins, pushing them to overtime of Game 7. But the same old Leafs resurfaced, panicking on a dump-in and letting David Pastrnak waltz in for the series winner after Ilya Samsonov and Morgan Rielly’s “I got it, no you got it” sequence. Make that seven first-round exits in eight years of the Matthews/Mitch Marner era.

The Leafs entered the 2024 offseason wounded and hungry for major renovations. That did include a coaching change, with Stanley Cup winner Craig Berube replacing Sheldon Keefe. But while a Marner trade was anticipated, it did not materialize. The Leafs are running it back yet again with their forward group but made some significant changes on the back end, signing Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson.

So: if the Leafs improve defensively and find their courage with Berube motivating them, do they finally break through with a deep playoff run? Time to do this dance again.

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions

Chris Tanev, D
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D
Anthony Stolarz, G
Jani Hakanpaa, D
Max Pacioretty, LW (PTO)
Steven Lorentz, C (PTO)
Jon Gillies, G (PTO)

Departures

Tyler Bertuzzi, LW (Chi)
Ilya Samsonov, G (VGK)
Joel Edmundson, D (LA)
Ilya Lyubushkin, D (Dal)
T.J. Brodie, D (Chi)
Mark Giordano, G (UFA)
John Klingberg, D (UFA)
Noah Gregor, LW (Ott)
Martin Jones, G (UFA)

OFFENSE

The Leafs return almost every forward from last year’s group aside from first-line left winger Tyler Bertuzzi and checker Noah Gregor. The team’s scoring nucleus mostly ain’t broke. The Leafs finished second in goals last season and have never finished lower than ninth since Matthews and Marner debuted in 2016-17. They have become increasingly top heavy as their top stars earn bigger pieces of the salary-cap pie, however, with 21-goal scorer Bertuzzi ending up as the latest casualty.

Treliving has expressed optimism that the team can internally replace Bertuzzi’s contributions this year. They need to, considering Matthews, Marner, Nylander and John Tavares accounted for 55 percent of the team’s goals last season. Will Matthew Knies fill the void? He looked like an absolute dawg in the playoffs and is expected to open the year on the first line alongside Matthews and Marner. The Leafs are also hoping they can better distribute their scoring by moving Nylander from the right wing to the second-line center position, with Tavares, still effective but in decline, winning some easier matchups in a third-line role. The Leafs have toyed with this type of deployment before but usually end up reverting to stacking their stars together. It will be interesting to see how long Berube sticks with the experiment.

Overall, 5-on-5 offense won’t be a problem for Toronto. But can the Leafs’ power play stop its trend of imploding in the postseason? It converted at a mind-boggling 4.8 percent against Boston last spring. Marc Savard has joined the club as an assistant coach; he worked under Berube with the 2019-20 St. Louis Blues and helped them to the NHL’s third-best power play. New addition Ekman-Larsson also gives Toronto another blueline quarterback option if things get stale with Rielly.

DEFENSE

Molded by Treliving, the Leafs were harder to play against last season in that they caused more physical pain to their opponents. But they were easier to play against in that they were a bigger, slower team, easier to elude. At 5-on-5, they sat middle of the pack in expected goals against per 60 but landed in the bottom half of the league in preventing high-danger chances at 5-on-5. They also killed just 76.5 percent of their penalties, their worst rate in 14 years, and because they were a less disciplined team than in the past, averaging their most penalty minutes in nine years, they allowed their most power-play goals in a season in 10 years.

As Treliving told us during the Leafs’ training camp media availability last week, he doesn’t worry about putting pucks in the other team’s net, but he does worry about keeping pucks out of Toronto’s net, and that’s why he made the blueline an offseason focus. Gone are the burly net clearers Joel Edmundson and Ilya Lyubushkin. In come shutdown artist Chris Tanev and fresh Stanley Cup champion Ekman-Larsson. Tanev is arguably the exact player the Leafs have needed for half a decade. He’s long and rangy, he’s a right shot, he’s mobile for his role, he smothers the other teams’ top players, and he does so in a disciplined, modern style that keeps him out of the box. Tanev has only even exceeded 25 PIM once in his 14 seasons. He grades out in the 100^th percentile as an even-strength defender over the past three seasons. During the 2024 playoffs, the score at 5-on-5 was 9-5 for the Dallas Stars with Tanev on the ice against Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon and Jack Eichel. Tanev is 34 and should show signs of decline during his six-year deal, but he should help Toronto significantly in the short term.

OEL’s calling card at this stage of his career is more defense by offense. He can move the puck but isn’t going to make life difficult for opposing attackers. Toronto also added bruiser Jani Hakanpaa, though he’s still working his way back from a knee injury and his timeline to start the season is murky at best.

Tanev will pair with Rielly, who has the offensive chops of a top-pair defenseman but has been miscast for years as someone tasked with playing big minutes and handling difficult defensive assignments. Even if Rielly has improved in that regard, it was never his strength, so Tanev is a dream partner.

Berube would be wise to keep the second pair of Simon Benoit and McCabe together, even though they have somewhat redundant skillsets as a physical duo. Toronto generated more than 53 percent of the 5-on-5 scoring chances when they were on the ice together last year. Ekman-Larsson could pair with his fellow Swede, the underachieving but nevertheless talented Timothy Lilegren. But for now, it appears Ekman-Larsson will get a look with McCabe on the second pair.

The Leafs should continue to get a defensive lift when their superstar forwards are on the ice; Matthews and Marner finished as Selke Trophy finalists in 2023-24 and 2022-23, respectively. Matthews sat second in the league in takeaways last season, Marner was 30^th despite missing 13 games, and Nylander was 13^th.

The Leafs do need to buck their trend of “lumbering fourth line that gets caved in.” Connor Dewar will help in that regard once he’s healthy, but Ryan Reaves will continue to be a liability despite the emotional lift he provides the team. The Leafs were outscored 22-10 with him on the ice at 5-on-5 last season.

GOALTENDING

What you think about Toronto’s goaltending in 2024-25 really comes down to perception. For the optimists: Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz bring about as much upside as any tandem in the league. Woll carries a .912 save percentage across 36 career regular season appearances and was a world beater in the playoffs last season, almost singlehandedly dragging Toronto to a comeback series win, posting a .964 SV% in three appearances and two starts. He has the mental makeup and athleticism to be a star-caliber No. 1 goalie in the NHL. As for Stolarz: among goalies who played at least 20 games, no one saved more goals above expected per 60 minutes than him in 2023-24. He graded out as the best goalie in the NHL relative to his playing time. At the very least, he’s an intriguing 1B.

OK, now for the pessimistic perspective: Woll cannot stay healthy, whether it’s the high ankle sprain that cost him three months last season or the back injury that knocked him out before Game 7 against Boston. He and Stolarz have career highs of 23 and 24 starts, respectively. So the Leafs are gambling on unpredictable play here. For the record: I believe they made the right call. Chasing a big name like Linus Ullmark and Jacob Markstrom would’ve cost them assets and money instead of just money, and goaltending is random as hell anyway.

As Berube told me last week, both netminders, not just Woll, will blow through their career highs for starts, meaning we’re looking at a 1A/1B setup rather than a true starter and backup.

COACHING

Berube, a former NHL enforcer with more than 1,000 games to his name, falls into the tier of ‘motivational players’ coach,’ a la Rod Brind’Amour. Berube is hardnosed and will bring accountability to Toronto’s room, but he also inspires players to go to war for him and connects with them on a personal level. He took the 2018-19 Blues from dead last in the NHL on Jan. 3 to winning the Stanley Cup.

That said: Berube’s coaching results have been middling aside from his one tremendous accomplishment. Across his eight NHL seasons, he’s reached Round 2 of the postseason twice and Round 3 once. The Leafs aren’t bringing him in because he’s a mastermind with a long history of success. They want Berube’s intangibles, his ability to relate to his players and get their hearts pumping, to help the Leafs overcome their mental hurdle in the postseason. It will be particularly interesting to see what Marner can achieve under Berube. Will Marner finally stop shrinking in clutch moments?

ROOKIES

It wasn’t looking like the Leafs would dress a rookie on opening night. But with Dewar still working his way back from shoulder surgery, there’s an opening for Easton Cowan, Toronto’s top prospect, who Treliving said was “pushing” for a job last week (not to be confused with pressing; pushing as in playing well). Cowan was considered a reach when Toronto nabbed him at the end of the first round at the 2023 Draft but exploded for 96 points in 54 game with OHL London last season, taking home the Red Tilson Trophy as league MVP. Cowan brings a feisty two-way game, which should accelerate his path to the pros since his style can translate to a bottom-six role.

Cowan isn’t a lock yet, of course. He has competition from fellow rookie Nikita Grebenkin, who has impressed in camp. And it’s possible veteran Max Pacioretty, who is on a PTO, beats them out and wins a starting gig.

Of course, in a perfect world, Pacioretty and a rookie forward would crack the opening lineup and nudge Reaves out.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. Is this Mitch Marner’s final season in Toronto? Maybe Marner pulls a Nylander and plays so well in his contract year that the Leafs lock him up mid-season. Or maybe Marner plays out the year as an “own rental” and tests the market, looking to earn upwards of $12 million a year. He has insisted being a Leaf remains a dream come true. But if he cracks under pressure again, would a separation be mutually beneficial?

2. Which depth scorer(s) will fill Tyler Bertuzzi’s void? Nick Robertson has 20-goal talent, at least, but always struggled to consistently crack Keefe’s lineup. If Toronto doesn’t retroactively honor Robertson’s trade request, might Berube unlock his potential? The Leafs missed Bobby McMann in the playoffs last season after he broke out for 15 goals. That total came in just 56 games and with a sustainable shooting percentage. Is there room for more?

3. Last stand for the Shanaplan? Toronto’s president enters the final season of his contract, and while he’s ushered in an era of consistent regular-season success and league-wide relevance, it’s tough to envision him returning if the Leafs don’t win at least a playoff round or two.

PREDICTION

Let’s say the annual refrain together now: “Wake us in April.” The Leafs churn out 100-point seasons in their sleep and still possess sufficient offensive weaponry that a playoff berth and top-three Atlantic Division seed feel like shoo-ins. They will not be judged on what they accomplish between now and April. Do they finally have the right mix to make a deep run? The gut feeling here is yes, they can at least return to the second round, given they addressed their key areas of need on defense and behind the bench.

_____

POST SPONSORED BY bet365