LAST SEASON

They’re good, but are they good enough? The Dallas Stars have now lost in the Western Conference Final the last three years in a row, and it’s felt like they’ve gotten further and further away from winning each time. Let’s face it: Dallas barely even put up a fight against the Edmonton Oilers this past spring, being outscored by a laughable 19-4 margin in Games 2-5 after rallying to win the series opener. It was a sad ending to an otherwise impressive year for the Stars, who put up 106 points, pulled off a huge mid-season trade, and vanquished the Colorado Avalanche and Winnipeg Jets to punch their ticket to the WCF once again.

On paper, the Stars have so much going for them. Mikko Rantanen is one of the few players in the league who can will his team to wins, as he did multiple times against his former club in the first round of this year’s playoffs. Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley are two of the best young defenders in the league. Jake Oettinger, Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Wyatt Johnston have proven to be incredible value picks and legitimate difference-makers. But while there’s no reason to worry about an imminent decline just yet, the clock is ticking, especially with Robertson and Harley due for huge raises next summer. If they want to avoid being painted as this generation’s San Jose Sharks — and not just because Joe Pavelski played for both teams — the Stars need to win it all, and they need to do it now.

The Stars don’t look much different heading into 2025-26 than they did last year, but they’ll be relying a little more on internal promotions compared to years’ past after a handful of notable departures. The underlying structure is still intact, led by top-notch centers Hintz, Johnston, and Matt Duchene — the latter of whom accepted a sweetheart four-year deal at a $4.5 million cap hit to stay put. But the defense is still a bit top-heavy, Oettinger can run a little hot and cold, and Robertson’s future in Dallas has been called into question throughout the offseason. The good news: Stars general manager Jim Nill has won the NHL’s GM of the year award for each of the last three seasons, and he’s more than capable of fine-tuning a contending team. If he can push the right buttons, this group could win it all.

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions

Radek Faksa, C
Nathan Bastian, RW
Vladislav Kolyachonok, D

Departures

Mikael Granlund, C (ANA)
Mason Marchment, LW (SEA)
Evgenii Dadonov, RW (NJD)
Cody Ceci, D (LAK)
Matt Dumba, D (PIT)
Matej Blumel, RW (BOS)
Brendan Smith, D (UFA)

OFFENSE

Despite lacking a truly game-breaking player down the middle, the Stars are one of the league’s most potent offensive teams. They averaged 2.73 goals per hour at 5-on-5 last year, ranking fifth in the league, and had six 20-goal scorers (not including Rantanen or Granlund). Their depth was great, too, with eight players who scored 40 points, compared to six for the Florida Panthers and five for both the Avalanche and Oilers. And it’ll be helped more with full seasons from Rantanen and Tyler Seguin (20 games, 21 points).

Even in a year where he started a little slow, Robertson finished with 35 goals and 80 points after a thermonuclear January in which he scored 10 goals and 21 points in 15 games. A line with Hintz between Robertson and Rantanen has the potential to be one of the best we’ve seen in recent years, perhaps similar to when Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau, and Elias Lindholm played together for the Calgary Flames. Robertson is heading into an enormously consequential contract year, too …

It’s also impossible to understate just how important a role Rantanen could play in his first full year in Dallas, especially coming right after one filled with so much turmoil. The big Finn clearly never wanted to leave Colorado, seldom felt comfortable with the Carolina Hurricanes, and took time to kick into gear after he got to Dallas — but once the bright lights started shining in the playoffs, did he ever come around. This is a player who scored 301 points over his last three full seasons with the Avalanche. Even if he didn’t do much in the series against the Oilers, Rantanen is one of the best players in the West and will remain a key asset for the Stars in the foreseeable future.

The loss of Marchment will hurt, especially if 25-year-old sophomore Oskar Back is tasked with replacing his 22 goals next season. Losing Granlund and Dadonov also stings, although neither player was ever all that likely to be retained. It’ll be up to Nill to get creative with acquiring more secondary scoring throughout year by whatever means possible, because if one of the Stars’ forwards goes down — like Seguin did last year — there isn’t a whole lot coming up through their prospect system.

DEFENSE

The story of the Stars’ defensive group is best told in two parts. We’ll begin with their collection of left-handed defenders, which ranks among the very best in the National Hockey League. Heiskanen, who often plays on the right side as a matter of circumstance, has long been regarded as Dallas’ cornerstone at the defense position, but Harley is truly starting to give him a run for his money after scoring 31 goals and 97 points over the last two seasons combined. Between those two and Finnish veteran Esa Lindell, the Stars have a truly fantastic contingent of lefties on the blueline — and just for good measure, their top defensive prospect, Lian Bischel, also shoots left.

But, as you may have guessed, the Stars’ main problem on defense has to do with the other side. When your best right-handed defender is Ilya Lyubushkin, you’re in trouble, and the Stars got into far more than their fair share of jams last year because of subpar performances from their defensive group. They surrendered more scoring chances per hour of game time at 5-on-5 than any other playoff team except the Montreal Canadiens, which says a whole lot. They gave up a ton of shots — even more than teams like Pittsburgh and Nashville — and relied far more upon their goaltenders than you’d expect or hope for from a thrice-minted conference finalist. (Even their fifth-ranked PK had much more to do with Oettinger and Casey DeSmith as opposed to their largely middling shot suppression).

It’s pretty easy to draw a thick line separating Heiskanen and Harley from the rest of the Stars’ defensive group, including a beleaguered, overexposed Lindell. Simply put, Dallas fared so, so much worse whenever they trotted out the likes of Lyubushkin, Matt Dumba, Brendan Smith, and, heaven forbid, Cody Ceci. For as many accolades as Nill has collected since taking over in Dallas, it’s unfathomable that he landed on Ceci as the one and only reinforcement for that Stars defensive group in March — and it cost them dearly, with No. 44 posting the worst underlying results on the team across the board after the trade and into the playoffs.

The Stars have to find a way to add another defenseman who can provide positive impacts at both ends on a consistent basis. It’s their single most glaring organizational need, even just for the relief and freedom it’d give Heiskanen and Lindell. Without another two-way rearguard who can handle a fair portion of the toughest assignments, the Stars might never break through. They were onto something when they rented Chris Tanev from the Flames in 2024, and it might be worth going back to that well if Rasmus Andersson can be had for a reasonable price.

GOALTENDING

Considering how porous the Stars were in their own end last year — and how much save percentages have fallen across the league — it’s a minor miracle that Jake Oettinger managed a .909 save percentage to go along with his 36-18-4 record and two shutouts last year. The 26-year-old puckstopper has had some of the highest highs of any goaltender in the league during his young career, including that one ridiculous playoff series against Calgary three years ago, but has yet to find the consistency required to rise to the level of the truly elite. Even so, it’s important to remember that a .909 save percentage has gone from being dead-average to genuinely strong in today’s NHL landscape.

The Stars ended up with the eighth-best team save percentage at 5-on-5 in the entire league, a very respectable .918. While Oettinger certainly played a big part in that, it’s also safe to say the Stars would’ve had a more difficult time locking down home-ice advantage in the Central without backup Casey DeSmith, who posted a .915 in 27 games — including a .849 high-danger save percentage at evens that ranked among the NHL’s best, in stark contrast with Oettinger’s league-leading 69 goals surrendered on high-danger chances. Sure, a decent part of that has to do with DeSmith playing more against opponents that generally aren’t as good at generating those grade-A looks, but he still allowed just 44 goals at 5-on-5 compared to 59.5 expected.

Oettinger and DeSmith are locked in as the Stars’ tandem for at least the next two years. Assuming that Oettinger keeps making incremental improvements as he gains experience, the Stars should be suitably equipped at the position for the foreseeable future.

COACHING

What’s old is new again in Dallas as Glen Gulutzan returns for his second tour of duty as Stars head coach. It was a move that had to be made after Pete DeBoer threw Oettinger under the bus after pulling him early in the Stars’ series-deciding loss to the Oilers in the West Final. DeBoer lasted barely a week after that, although his controversial decision (and comments) might’ve just been the straw that broke the camel’s back after the team failed to break out of the Final Four in all three of his seasons at the helm.

Gulutzan, who prevailed over the Stars each of the last two seasons as an assistant coach in Edmonton, previously served as head coach in Dallas from 2011 to 2013. A relatively fresh-faced newcomer in the NHL coaching scene back then, Gulutzan guided the Stars to back-to-back seasons just outside the playoff picture before being replaced by a more tested veteran in Lindy Ruff.

Since then, Gulutzan has had plenty of opportunities to hone his craft at the NHL level, serving as a head coach in Calgary and an assistant with the Oilers and Vancouver Canucks. He’s had his share of ups and downs in all those spots, but enjoyed plenty of success running the power play in Edmonton — although, given the Oilers’ wide array of offensive weapons, it’s more than fair to question exactly how much he specifically had to do with that. But given that firing Gulutzan was one of Nill’s first acts as Stars general manager back in 2013, it says a lot about Gulutzan’s growth that he’s been given another shot in Dallas, and by the very same GM, no less.

ROOKIES

Bichsel techincally doesn’t qualify as a rookie after skating in 38 games with the Stars during the 2024-25 regular season, but he’s pretty much the closest thing they have to one at this point. He’s a towering lefty from Switzerland whom the Stars selected 18th overall back in 2022, and while he doesn’t directly address their issues on the right side, he looked pretty competent in spot duty last year and was trusted to play third-pairing minutes in each of the team’s 18 playoff games. Bichsel should already have that No. 3 LD spot pretty much locked up.

There isn’t a whole lot in the Stars’ system — read Steven Ellis’ list of their top 10 prospects for more information — but keep an eye out for wingers Ayrton Martino and Antonio Stranges, two highly skilled and productive mid-round picks who could be called into action if the injury bug bites. It’s unlikely either player is truly ready for NHL duty but they both play with enough energy and pizzazz to make an impression if needed.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. What’s next for Jason Robertson? The man they call ‘Robo’ has been one of the league’s most efficient goal scorers for years, but with the Stars committing huge term and dollars to Rantanen earlier this year, can they afford to pay another star winger — and should they? Considering how much they gave up to land Rantanen, not to mention the rental price they paid for Granlund and Ceci, Dallas might stand to benefit from flipping Robertson for futures or pieces they can use elsewhere. By the same token, Robertson has scored 394 points in 374 games with the Stars. That’s not a player who can be easily replaced.

2. Is Mavrik Bourque trade bait? The Stars have had to sacrifice a decent chunk of their veteran forward depth to retain the likes of Rantanen, Hintz, Johnston, Heiskanen, and Oettinger. That’s an expensive core, and it’ll be a challenge for the Stars to remain under the cap this season and beyond. Bourque is one of their few cost-controlled pieces for the 2025-26 campaign, making a paltry $950,000, and he could take a big step forward this year after managing 25 points in 73 games last season. But if he stays closer to his current level, it’s easy to imagine the Stars looking to swap him for a more established piece — after all, they set that precedent last year with Logan Stankoven. It truly could go either way with Bourque, the Stars’ 2020 first-round pick.

3. Can Jamie Benn still contribute? The longest-tenured Star has been an invaluable presence since his first day in Dallas. But he’s coming off a relatively lukewarm campaign by his standards, with 49 points in 80 games during the regular season and just three in 18 playoff contests. Benn re-upped with the Stars one a bonus-laden one-year deal for 2025-26, which will extend his Dallas career to 17 seasons. We’ve seen him turn back the clock before, going from 46 points in 2021-22 to 78 the following year. The Stars could really use that kind of resurgence from their captain once again.

PREDICTION

As it stands, the Stars are a really good team. Most fanbases would love to see their team make the Conference Finals even once in a decade, let alone three times in a row. It has to sting to lose all three, but you’d think it’d also act as one heck of a motivator for that group.

The only real questions with this team, as presently constructed, lie down the middle and on the right side. Are Hintz, Johnston, and Duchene truly good enough to go up against the elite of the elite? Those three are terrific players, but none of them is close to Connor McDavid (or even Jack Eichel). And can Nill finally get that two-way defender who can hold his own alongside Harley or Heiskanen? To use the Oilers as an example, they didn’t truly take off as a contender until they landed Mattias Ekholm from the Predators. A righthanded version of him is the exact type of player the Stars need on their blueline right now.

Are the Stars a playoff team? No doubt about it. Are they a contender? You bet. But until they prove they can address those glaring issues, we’ll say they make it back to the West Final … and fall just short again.

Advanced stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and MoneyPuck

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