LAST SEASON

No grit. No grind. No greatness. That was the version of the team motto etched on the wall at the Toronto Maple Leafs’ practice facility a year ago, and it perfectly epitomized the highs and lows of their 2024-25 season.

After the Leafs’ latest Game 7 first-round playoff defeat to the Boston Bruins in spring 2024, management pink-slipped Sheldon Keefe in favor of a coach who’d actually won the Big One before: Craig Berube, who’d guided the St. Louis Blues to the Stanley Cup in 2018-19. His no-nonsense persona signified Toronto’s intended culture change. Coupled with additions such as Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson on defense, the moves by GM Brad Treliving did give the Leafs a different sheen. Their underlying metrics suggested they sacrificed some skill to get grittier, but they carried a new swagger as the biggest, heaviest team in the NHL, and the outstanding work they got from goalies Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll masked their newfound defensive deficiencies. They held off the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers to win the Atlantic Division for the first time in franchise history.

The Leafs flew out to a 3-0 series lead on the Ottawa Senators in Round 1 and, after letting the Sens off the mat for two games, found the killer instinct in Game 6 to close them out. The Leafs then beat the defending Stanley Cup champion Panthers in Games 1 and 2 of the second round before taking a 3-1 lead in Game 3. Finally, these Leafs were showing they were different…

…until they weren’t. The Panthers rallied to take Game 3 in overtime, smothered Toronto to win Game 4, then absolutely humiliated the Leafs on home ice in Game 5 and 7 by a combined 12-2 margin. The Leafs were the lone team to push the eventual repeat champs to Game 7 all postseason, but a Game 1 concussion to Stolarz, not to mention superstar Auston Matthews laboring through an injury, tilted the series in Florida’s favor. The lasting image to close Toronto’s season: superstar Mitch Marner, hair dry as a bone, with no goals and one assist in the final four games of the series, yelling at his teammates to “Wake the fuck up” as the Scotiabank Arena faithful rained down boos.

No grit, no grind, no greatness indeed. Wilting in Game 7 proved to be the Core Four’s death knell. Marner joined the Vegas Golden Knights in a June 30 sign and trade. The Leafs commence a new era in which they’ve replaced him in the aggregate and tripled down on their new heavy-hockey philosophy: will they finally have enough grit and grind to achieve greatness in the postseason?

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions

Nicolas Roy, C
Matias Maccelli, RW
Dakota Joshua, LW
Michael Pezzetta, LW
Henry Thrun, D

Departures

Mitch Marner, RW (VGK)
Max Pacioretty, LW (UFA)
Pontus Holmberg, C (TB)
Ryan Reaves, RW (SJ)

OFFENSE

Elite offense was the Leafs’ defining characteristic across nine seasons of the Matthews-Marner era, during which they never finished lower than ninth in goals and ranked among the top teams at generating chances more years than not, particularly when Kyle Dubas was around as GM. They finished seventh in goals per game last season. Their power play was inconsistent but caught fire after the 4 Nations Face-Off break and ranked ninth in the league for the year. The Leafs boasted six 20-goal scorers to boot.

But let’s get to it: removing Marner from the equation changes everything. His 102 points last season were a career high and led the team. Across his nine seasons with the Leafs, only seven other NHLers amassed more points. His ability to make teammates better, at even strength and on the power play, cannot be replaced.

So how will the Leafs remain a high-octane offensive club without him? Since Treliving did not bring in another top-six forward, the responsibility remains with Toronto’s remaining stars. Matthews is still the best pure goal-scorer of his generation, only a season removed from becoming the only player this century to score 69 in a season. An undisclosed ailment sustained in training camp last season affected his play on and off year round, particularly when uncorking his patented wrister from long and medium range. He travelled to Germany mid-season for treatment of the injury, played just 67 games and “only” managed 33 goals and 78 points in that span. Those totals remind us how high Matthews’ floor is even at 75 percent of himself, but with Marner’s scoring removed, the Leafs desperately need peak Matthews back.

Matthews claims he’s 100 percent healthy coming back to start the year. Time will tell if that’s true. He’ll continue to drive the first line, flanked by emerging young power forward Matthew Knies, who went off for 29 goals last season. His size and breakaway speed make him a unicorn player, and he was a real difference maker for Toronto in the playoffs last season. Who will join those two in Marner’s place on line 1? Veteran Max Domi is the safe veteran option given he found chemistry with Matthews late in the 2023-24 season, but Matias Maccelli, acquired from the Utah Mammoth this summer, is a logical candidate for the opportunity as well. While he flopped in his third full NHL season, he popped as a playmaker in his first two; among 477 forwards who played at least 500 minutes at 5-on-5 from 2022-23 through 2023-24, Maccelli sat 43^rd in primary assists per 60, placing him in the 91^st percentile. Of course, Marner was first and Domi eighth over that span. Maccelli and Domi have both seen work on the top line during camp, so consider their spots interchangeable in our projected lineup.

William Nylander and John Tavares will be relied upon as much as ever to generate offense from the second line. Nylander is one of the NHL’s most consistent forwards, posting 80 or more points in four consecutive seasons and 40 or more goals in three consecutive seasons, missing one total game in the past four years. Nylander can be counted on to remain elite in his age-29 season, but what will Tavares do at 35? His 38 goals last season were his second most in a Leaf uniform, and he was a dominant net-front scorer after the 4 Nations break in particular, but he’s at an age where decline can strike at any point. Bobby McMann is the most likely option to play with Tavares and Nylander, having done so in spurts last year, using his size and speed to bag 20 goals.

Depth scoring shouldn’t be a huge problem for Toronto; Dakota Joshua and Nicolas Roy join a bottom six that will include Nick Robertson and Scott Laughton, the latter of whom should fare better now that he’s settled back into his home NHL market after pressing when the Leafs acquired him last winter.

A key question entering the offseason: who would replace Marner on the top power-play unit? The Leafs used five forwards last year, but blueliner Morgan Rielly, hoping for a resurgent season, gets his spot back. Maybe a bigger role in the Leafs’ attack can spark a resurgence after he averaged his fewest points per game since 2016-17 last year.

DEFENSE

Our eyes tell us the Leafs haven’t been this difficult to play against in many years. They live and breathe Berube hockey, big and physical; they rank among the league leaders in hits; they finished top-10 in goals against; and adding the 6-foot-3, 206-pound Joshua to the mix makes them even more intimidating. The truth: while Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe proved to legitimately be one of the league’s best shutdown pairs, the Leafs as a whole played subpar defensive hockey, propped up by their exemplary goaltending. Among the 16 playoff-qualifying teams, only the Montreal Canadiens and Dallas Stars allowed more 5-on-5 scoring chances than the Leafs. Their inability to clear their zone sunk them against the Panthers, who would hem them in for minutes at a time throughout their series and infamously opened Game 7 with, depending on the report, the first 25 shot attempts of the contest.

The Leafs return the same well-rounded, physical defensive duos that they rolled with in the postseason last year: McCabe and Tanev, Rielly and Brandon Carlo and Simon Benoit and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. This is a big, strong, fairly mobile D-corps, but if the Leafs don’t get the same number of saves as they got last year, will their lack of an elite puck mover expose them again? With Rielly exiting his prime, Toronto lacks a road-runner to skate the puck out of trouble and help with breakouts.

Third-line center Roy was a nice get in the Marner trade; Roy is an above-average defensive forward who will likely play some shutdown minutes against opponents’ top forwards. But not enough people talk about the defensive impact of Marner’s exit. He’s an elite two-way forward, a Selke Trophy finalist, a penalty killer, and he has more takeaways than any other NHL player over the past five seasons. Marner’s absence will impact Toronto at both ends of the ice.

GOALTENDING

Aside from the Winnipeg Jets, who had Connor Hellebuyck, the Leafs arguably got the best goaltending of any team last season. For the second year in a row, Stolarz graded out first in the NHL in goals saved above expected per 60. Joseph Woll was seventh, meaning the Leafs got All-Star-caliber play no matter who manned their crease. Stolarz’ massive frame and cool efficiency made him the right pick to start in the playoffs, and he mostly looked like a difference maker before he was knocked out of the postseason on a controversial collision with Florida’s Sam Bennett. The athletic Woll can look unbeatable when he’s on but isn’t as calm in the net and can battle his consistency; he was shaky at times in the Florida series, and it did feel like the Leafs were a better team with Stolarz in goal.

Either way, Toronto’s puck-stopping is a strength going into 2025-26 – as long as both goalies are present. Stolarz has battled injuries throughout his career and endured multiple absences last season, while Woll has struggled to stay healthy in the past as well and has taken a leave of absence during training camp to deal with a family matter. Dennis Hildeby is next in line if needed; he’s been above average in the AHL but below average in the NHL, pretty much exactly what you’d expect from a No. 3 goalie.

COACHING

The Leafs couldn’t escape the second round of the playoffs, but a Game 7 loss in Round 2 still represented their deepest postseason run since 2001-02, and Berube’s presence mattered. As a former longtime player, he commands his troops’ respect. He also lets pressure and criticism roll off his back; his relatively unflappable personality suits him well to the Toronto media market. The Leafs do play a simpler, more north-south style under him than they did under Keefe, which helps in some ways and hurts in others. One way to describe the difference: Keefe’s Leafs could trail 4-1 and come back with a flurry of goals. Berube’s Leafs hold leads extremely well but can’t flick a switch and play firewagon hockey if needed. With Marner gone, the team’s identity should shift even more toward the rugged Berube/Treliving mindset.

ROOKIES

A team like Toronto, squarely in its Stanley Cup contention window, typically doesn’t have many rookies to break in because (a) a deep veteran group leaves few spots available and (b) a team with an NHL-best nine-year playoff streak has traded away plenty of first-round picks and is thus low on high-end prospects. The only rookie skater with a true shot to make Toronto is, naturally, Easton Cowan. He has been one of the OHL’s most dominant all-around players for the past couple seasons, and his hardnosed style helps his chances of making the team because he can play on multiple types of lines. He wasn’t deemed mature enough to make the jump a year ago, but he has impressed in 2025-26 training camp and preseason games, his dogged determination singled out by Berube, and feels much closer to NHL ready now. Should Cowan make the Leafs, he could become an extremely important player in a hurry given the upside he brings at an entry-level AAV. Blueliner Ben Danford has a Tanev-like skill set and has impressed in the preseason, too, but likely needs another year to develop if not two. Hildeby is also a rookie, having appeared in just six NHL games last year, and is a virtual lock to see action with the big club at again in 2025-26.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. When will the Leafs add another top-six forward? Treliving has been forthcoming about his desire to replace Marner with a true scoring-line winger but, whether it was simple inability to get a trade done or because the Leafs were capped out, nothing materialized in the summer. It’s still likely the Leafs fish for a forward at the Trade Deadline. That could mean pursuing popular offseason names like the Pittsburgh Penguins’ Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell, but who knows which other marquee forwards will shake lose depending on how the standings play out?

2. Will Auston Matthews ever be fully healthy again? Matthews says he feels good. But he was cagey at the end of last season about revealing what his injury was, citing a risk of being targeted by opponents. That protectiveness implied concern that the problem could recur. Will he have to deal with flareups of a potentially chronic condition this season?

3. Will the Leafs finally have the right playoff intangibles? Marner is gone, but none of Toronto’s remaining core members, from Matthews to Nylander to Tavares to Knies to Rielly, has played beyond the second round. The Leafs looked at times like a team that found the mental toughness to break through last season, but the Game 7 humiliation versus Florida erased any goodwill Toronto built up. Can the altered dressing room chemistry finally produce a mix of players who can play hockey deep into June?

PREDICTION

It’s understandable why the Marner era had to end from either side’s perspective. Neither could keep trying the same thing. The Leafs were justified to change the mixture in hopes of finally icing a group with the grit and grind to achieve greatness in the playoffs. But let’s be very clear: Marner may have struggled in clutch situations, but he was crucially responsible for getting Toronto to the playoffs. This team is far worse without him, maybe five to seven wins worse. A division title feels far less likely this season and, in the hyper-competitive Atlantic Division, the Leafs could even sink into Wildcard territory. Their long-term contention window has shrunk.

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