Schedule (ET)

TBD

The Skinny

For a while, it looked like the Capitals were destined to win the Presidents’ Trophy as the top team in the regular season. But quickly, the focus shifted to getting Alex Ovechkin the all-time NHL goals record by any means necessary. The team actually struggled down the stretch, but given that they clinched a playoff spot on March 20, they had a month to just try things out and see what worked.

That’s a luxury very few teams get on any given year, and that’s because they were downright dominant for so much of the season. After missing the playoffs two years ago and getting swept last season, it was easy to write this team off. Maybe it was Ovechkin’s pursuit of greatness that made them step up another level this year. But regardless, the results don’t lie – the Capitals mean business.

The Canadiens, meanwhile, has had to play must-win hockey for the entire second half of the season. Since Jan. 1, the team registered 54 points – good for 11th in the NHL. The Canadiens could have clinched a playoff spot with four games to go, but three straight losses meant they needed to beat the Carolina Hurricanes on Wednesday to keep things under control. They ultimately did, but you have to wonder if the magic was starting to wear off at the absolute wrong time.

Montreal hasn’t been in the playoffs since nearly winning the whole thing in 2021. Since then, they’ve picked first overall in 2022 and fifth overall in 2023 and 2024. That young core is starting to come together, with both Juraj Slafkovsky and Ivan Demidov expected to play big roles in the first round. The team is still far from perfect and there’s still work for GM Kent Hughes to do to make them a truly competitive team, long-term. But the youth is here, thriving, and ready to get to work.

Head to Head

Washington: 2-0-1
Montreal: 1-2

The two teams met three times this year, with the most recent date coming Jan. 10. That was the lone Canadiens win of the series, a 3-2 overtime affair in what was a solid game. The Caps won the other two meetings, outscoring the Habs 12-8 in that span. Both Aliaksei Protas and Tom Wilson had four points each, while Alex Ovechkin scored on each of his two shots he took in his two games after missing the game in January. Cole Caufield, meanwhile, had five points in three outings, with Nick Suzuki being the only other player with more than one as Montreal’s top line was the only one to make much noise.

The two teams have met just once in the playoffs, back in 2010. It was a wild series, with the underdog Canadiens geting an absolutely outstanding performance from Jaroslav Halak to shock the hockey world. The Canadiens were trailing 3-1 in the series at one point before Halak held down the fort and allowed just three goals in the final three games. The Habs then went on to shock the Pittsburgh Penguins in the second round before ultimately falling to the Philadelphia Flyers in the Eastern Conference final.

Top Five Scorers

Washington

Dylan Strome, 81 points
Alex Ovechkin, 72 points
Aliaksei Protas, 66 points
Pierre-Luc Dubois, 65 points
Tom Wilson, 64 points

Montreal

Nick Suzuki, 89 points
Cole Caufield, 70 points
Lane Hutson, 66 points
Juraj Slafkovsky, 51 points
Brendan Gallagher, 38 points

X-Factor

Can Ovi still play like Superman? Ovechkin has defied Father Time to play at a 92-point pace over a full 82-game season. Had he stayed healthy, that would have been the most productive season by a 39-year-old in league history. Even after breaking the all-time goals record against the New York Islanders on April 6, he has remained active with points in every game since. He has sat out a bit to get rested for the playoffs, where he’ll look to be significantly more impactful than he was a year ago when he failed to get on the scoresheet over four games. Star players never need motivation to perform.

But how much more does Ovechkin have in the tank after breaking the elusive record? The Capitals haven’t had to play meaningful hockey for a while now. Is he rested enough to keep that peak Ovi form alive? Can he and the rest of the team shift their focus to winning after the drive for 895?

This team runs much deeper than No. 8. But if the Caps are going to come ahead, he’s going to have to play like he did down the stretch to overtake the Great One.

Offense

When you have literally the best goal-scorer in the world on your team, it’s hard not to feel confident in the team’s offense. Washington scored the second-most goals in the NHL this season, trailing only the Tampa Bay Lightning. Ovi led the way with 43, but Wilson, Protas, Strome and McMichael all set career-highs in goals, and seven players had at least 20. That includes defenseman Jakob Chychrun, who is coming off his best regular season to date. Overall, the team moved up 26 spots from last year when they finished 28th in scoring, with their goaltending being the biggest reason why they managed to slip into 2024 postseason.

It’s hard not to feel giddy when you’ve got so many players having personal-best seasons. Dylan Strome was once a highly touted prospect who never seemed to break out like his 2015 NHL Draft counterparts. At 28, the No. 1 center was the biggest catalyst for Ovechkin’s goal-scoring success. Protas, a 24-year-old out of Belarus, saw his production skyrocket from six goals and 29 points a year ago to 30 goals and more than 60 points. His emergence as a legitimate scoring threat was one of the biggest surprises of the season.

Similarly, McMichael’s breakout season was critical to getting the team to where it landed. He spent the entire 2021-22 season in the NHL but was AHL-bound in 2022-23. With just OK numbers at best, many wondered if the former London Knights star had what it took to be a valuable NHL contributor. He registered 18 goals and 33 points a year ago but absolutely smashed those numbers with 56 points this season. The McMichael whom scouts raved about all those years ago finally looks to have blossomed into a top-six scoring threat, and the Caps are better for it.

Pierre-Luc Dubois’s resurgence also had a considerable impact. He looked like a completely different player this season, going from 40 points a year ago to more than 60 this year. Dubois’ career has been full of ups and downs, but he took the opportunity in Washington in stride after an offseason trade and put up the best numbers of his eight-year NHL career. Wilson, meanwhile, erased doubts about his expensive contract by registering about 30 more points than he did a year ago for his best output to date.

What happens when you get career years from Suzuki, Caufield, and Slafkovsky? A core that means business. Montreal has bet high on their young talent for a few years now, and the results have finally started to show. Suzuki scored 30 goals and just missed out on 90 points. Caufield scored 37 goals to lead the team. Slafkovsky turned a poor start into an explosive second half, giving him 51 points on the season.

And it goes deeper. Brendan Gallagher and Patrik Laine both broke the 20-goal barrier, while Josh Anderson and Alex Newhook had a quiet 15 each. Montreal has also gotten some excellent hockey from their fourth line of Jake Evans, Emil Heineman and Joel Armia. Heineman missed some time due to injury, but has been one of Montreal’s biggest bright spots in the bottom six.

The real wild card here, though, is Demidov. The Russian rookie had a two-point debut against Chicago and has already stolen the hearts of the Habs faithful. Can the Canadiens get a Caufield-2021-like performance out of Demidov – someone who comes in fresh and makes his mark on the scoresheet? He might even be Montreal’s most important forward in this series.

The Capitals have the better offense, no doubt about it. But Montreal has youthful energy, looking to prove itself. It could get wild.

Defense

The Capitals have been closer to a mid-pack team regarding 5-on-5 goals against, which can be a slight cause for concern. The margin between 10th and 16th is small, but they find themselves around teams like Vancouver, Detroit, and the New York Islanders (Colorado and Vegas are close, as well). They mostly seem to beat teams with pure offense and high-level goaltending, but that’s not to say the team’s blueline is anything to scoff at.

John Carlson isn’t the player he once was, and maybe not a perfect No. 1. But he’s still playing decently in his own zone, and any negatives get outweighed by his puck-moving abilities. Chychrun, meanwhile, is a play-driver from the point, giving the Caps a serious 1-2 punch with Carlson. Chychrun has just nine games of playoff experience, so this is still pretty fresh for him, but he’s playing some wide-open hockey right now and you have to think he’ll continue to be relied on heavily.

Matt Roy is the team’s top shutdown defenseman and will continue to play a ton of minutes. Rasmus Sandin has also looked great for the Caps this year, the best season of his NHL career. His analytics have been near the top among all Capitals blueliners this year and it’ll be interesting to see how he performs under pressure.

As a unit, the team has a bit of everything. Skill? Check. Shutdown capabilities? You betcha. Size? The team has three blueliners standing 6-foot-3 or taller. Is it a championship-level blueline? Vegas or Colorado might have other ideas, but it’s been effective so far this season.

Montreal’s blueline is built around Hutson, the top candidate to win the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year. He might still be a work in progress in his own zone, but his pure dominance with the puck outweighs most of the negatives. Hutson is one of the most exciting players in the NHL, and he has shown that nothing seems to faze him. Look for Hutson to play close to 30 minutes a night while leading the team’s power play.

Kaiden Guhle ended the regular season off with a two-goal night against Carolina – arguably the best game he has ever played in the NHL. He’s a good skater who can be used in so many different situations, and he’s not afraid to play physical hockey.

On the veteran side, Mike Matheson hasn’t played to the high-end level we saw in recent years, but he’s still a minute-muncher who can slow things down and be valuable. Alexandre Carrier has been great since his acquisition from Nashville prior to the winter break and will continue to be relied on. In more of a shutdown role, the Canadiens kept David Savard at the NHL Trade Deadline instead of swapping him for picks. As a shot-blocker, he’s still valuable, and the Habs will want his energy against Washington (just like Roman Hamrlik against the Caps in 2010).

The Canadiens can be a bit messy in their own zone. They’ve got a mix of young guns and older vets, and it doesn’t always work out. But Montreal has shown they can outscore their D-zone issues – and if Hutson shines, it might not matter too much. But for now, we’re giving Washington the edge here again.

Goaltending

Logan Thompson was about to sign autographs at the Sphere in Vegas when he found out the Golden Knights had traded him to Washington. He wanted an opportunity to earn more starts, and with Darcy Kuemper out of the picture, it was definitely possible. But like he dealt with in Vegas with Adin Hill, Thompson found himself having to deal with another 1A/1B situation – this time, Charlie Lindgren, a key reason why the Caps made the postseason last year.

For a while, it was a near-even split as both goalies showed they could be difference-makers. But as the season wore on, Thompson established himself as a Vezina Trophy candidate. His 23.59 goals saved above expected at 5-on-5 placed him fourth in the NHL. He lost just six regulation games and 12 total to boast one of the best winning percentages in the league. Thompson had shown promising signs in Vegas in the past, but he has, bar none, played the best hockey of his career in Washington.

Lindgren had a decent season, but wasn’t as good as he was a year ago. His save percentage fell below .900 for the second time in three years. He’s still capable of getting wins, but he’s not stealing games like he did in 2023-24. In spurts, Lindgren is still more than capable of getting the job done – he proved that on more than one occasion a year ago. Maybe he’s just a backup at best, but he’s one heck of a Plan B if things go south.

Samuel Montembeault is no slouch, though. In fact, he’s been close to Thompson in most notable stat categories. Montembeault’s had some rough stretches and would probably like to burn the tape from April. He might not get many Vezina Trophy votes, but his 13.9 GSAx at 5-on-5 is good for 13th in the NHL, and his 29.32 at all strengths is fourth. If you don’t watch Habs games, you might undervalue just how good Montembeault has been throughout most of the season.

His backup, Jakub Dobes, has been an impressive rookie, too. He has a 4.64 GSAx which puts him near the high-end of backups in the NHL this year. He only played 16 games, so it’s not a huge sample size, but he started off hot and established himself as a legitimate backup over Cayden Primeau.

If either team has a slight edge in net, it’s Washington. Thompson has opened so many eyes this year and proved his play in Vegas was no fluke. But Montembeault can easily go toe-to-toe with him. Don’t expect goaltending to be an issue in this series.

Injuries

The Capitals missed a few key players down the stretch: Protas, Carlson, Chychrun, and Thompson. For the most part, though, it was more about keeping them rested than anything notable, and they should be back in time for the series, with Thompson perhaps being the most iffy for Game 1. The Caps have avoided compounding injuries for the most part, rarely icing a roster that isn’t as close to full strength as possible.

The Canadiens are fully healthy, beyond NHL/AHL tweener Rafael Harvey-Pinard’s upper-body injury and Kirby Dach’s season-ending knee ailment. Heineman recently returned after missing five games due to an upper-body issue, which left a big hole in Montreal’s bottom six. With him back, the Canadiens are as close to full strength as we’ve seen them.

Intangibles

One team wins based on pure skill. Last summer, they added Dubois, Chychrun, Andrew Mangiapane, Taylor Raddysh, Roy and Thompson without losing many big names in return. With Spencer Carbery no longer a rookie coach, the Caps had higher expectations this season – even if most still didn’t give them much love. So when the wins started to pile in, and so many players were performing much better than expected, the hockey world took notice. The Capitals were in the top 10 in the standings for the entire season and never looked back.

This season always felt like a rallying effort to help Ovechkin break the goal-scoring record and get him one more Cup before he retires. He’s 39, with just one more year left on his deal. At some point, old age will catch up to him, especially if he challenges for the all-time hits record next season, too. Is this the last year in the Ovi era – the most important in team history – where they’ll have a legitimate chance to win the Stanley Cup? General manager Chris Patrick believed enough in this group to not make any major moves at the deadline. Let’s see if that pays off.

But for the Canadiens, most didn’t see this team getting this far. It was natural to expect them to at least contend for a playoff spot. But compared to, say, the New York Rangers, a first-round berth seemed extremely unlikely until the second half of the season. Heck, they were second last in December! This is a team that’s truly determined to prove people wrong.

Series Prediction

The Capitals are riding the high of a record-breaking season, and they’d love nothing more than to cap it off with their second Stanley Cup. The core is as good as it was in 2018, the goaltending (for the most part) has been excellent, and there are plenty of reasons to buy high. But Montreal has played must-win hockey for months now, and while it wasn’t an easy road, you have to think they’re riding a “Why Not Us?” mantra. Neither team has put in inspiring performances recently, either. But when you compare this to the battle in 2010, both teams have similar auras around them – and therefore, don’t be surprised if we see a similar result. In the end, though, the Caps have the advantage in just about every category, so it’s hard to truly bet against them.

Capitals in seven games.

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