<p>When the NHL’s calendar flips to April, spring is in the air.</p>



<p>Meaningful games blossom after a long regular season. A fresh slate emerges for the playoff teams. The annual promise of six months of tee times renews for the Buffalo Sabres and Detroit Red Wings. And yes, the temperature starts to rise.</p>



<p>But some players don’t handle the heat very well.</p>



<p>Last week, <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/era-adjusted-playoff-stats-a-new-post-season-tool-to-compare-generations" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">era adjusted playoff stats</a> were launched. We can now objectively compare players to one another in the post-season. But it’s equally intriguing to be able to compare a player to a more familiar face — the one in the mirror. Regular Season Nathan MacKinnon versus Post-Season Nathan MacKinnon, for example.</p>



<p>We’re able to seamlessly contrast season and playoff performances on the same scale in a way not previously possible. With this new tool in our belts, we’re counting down <strong>the NHL players whose output takes the biggest hit when the stakes are highest</strong>.</p><div class="injected-ad injected-video" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="0" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="157"></div>



<p><em>Note: All regular season and playoff statistics are through June 2023</em>.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-forwards">Forwards 📉</h2>



<p>Before we identify the biggest playoff underperformers, we need to set a critical threshold. We’re not interested in Ryan Reaves scoring at a 13-point regular season pace down to a six-point playoff pace. For forwards, we’re filtering to a career regular season minimum of 0.7 era adjusted points-per-game — consistently legitimate scoring threats. So, it’s important to recognize that to be on these lists, you’re already a high-performing NHL player.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Active</h3>



<p><em>Minimum 45 career playoff games</em></p>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>10. Brayden Schenn (-19%)<br>9. Vladimir Tarasenko (-19%)<br>8. Blake Wheeler (-19%)</strong></h4>



<p>We begin with two prominent faces from the Blues’ upstart 2019 season, which culminated in the Stanley Cup. A single ring tends to paint a player as a lifelong winner, but the numbers suggest both Schenn and Tarasenko lean right place, right time in otherwise mediocre post-season careers. Wheeler, meanwhile, put up 21 points in his only notable run (2018), but has just 24 points in 48 playoff games outside that solo Jets’ conference final appearance.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="1" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="162"></div>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>7. Aleksander Barkov (-20%)<br>6. Auston Matthews (-21%)</strong></h4>



<p>Contrary to popular belief, this list isn’t comprised of every member of the Toronto Maple Leafs since 1967, Sheldon Keefe, Carlton the Bear, and various failed drafts of the Shanaplan. Matthews does crack the list, however. It’s interesting that he and Barkov, each Selke finalists and perhaps the two most complete forwards of this generation, are included. Matthews’ <a href="https://adjustedhockey.com/adjusted-stats-2/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">adjusted 82-game pace</a> drops from 52/41/93 to 38/36/74 — still a 38-goal scorer in the playoffs but not the all-world threat we’ve come to expect. Both Matthews (50 career playoff games entering 2024) and Barkov (47) still have the right to plead innocent, citing small samples and ample runway to rewrite their post-season legacies.</p>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>5. Mats Zuccarello (-21%)<br>4. J.T. Miller (-24%)</strong></h4>



<p>Next are two late bloomers that are each highly underappreciated regular season scorers. Zuccarello (18 goals in 96 career playoff games) and Miller (nine in 78) have struggled mightily in the playoffs, though. Miller is inching toward reversing the label, contributing positively since he arrived in Vancouver.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="2" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="159"></div>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>3. Steven Stamkos (-27%)</strong></h4>



<p>Yes, that’s right. Two-time Cup-winning captain Steven Stamkos sees the third-biggest drop in production in the playoffs. Regular Season Stamkos scores at an adjusted pace of 45/46/91. His alter ego, Post-Season Stamkos, falls to 31/35/66. In the Lightning’s four Final appearances, Stamkos finished tied for third in team scoring three times (2015, 2021, 2022) and played just one game in 2020. He’s never driven Tampa’s playoff bus.</p>



<p>As someone who <a href="https://x.com/AdjustedHockey/status/1785310314075975945" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">routinely praises</a> Stammer’s fantastic career, what does this tell us? Playoff success is heavily influenced by teammates. While Stamkos has never been <em>bad</em> in the playoffs, he’s been a shadow of himself. On a per-game basis, he’s been Playoff Auston Matthews (Lite).</p>



<p>It shows why labeling anyone with a ring or memorable moment as some kind of universal champion is lazy. <em>Teams</em> win titles and assuming their best players were exceptional along the way is simply untrue.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="3" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="147"></div>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="block-77296d1e-b477-4326-8f3c-b037720c1233"><strong>2. Artemi Panarin (-29%)</strong></h4>



<p>While Panarin is working on a playoff redemption story in 2024, history tells us he’s not been the same dominant force come springtime. He drops from an adjusted 95-point scorer to a 68-point scorer — passable but down 29% from the season.</p>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading" id="block-77296d1e-b477-4326-8f3c-b037720c1233"><strong>1. Tyler Seguin (-40%)</strong></h4>



<p>Seguin owns the #1 spot on the list by a significant margin, his output dropping a cringey 40% in the playoffs. Again, this is adjusted to playoff scoring climate, so it’s not a function of tighter games. Despite a Cup ring and 14 career rounds won, Seguin’s adjusted playoff line is: 20 goals, 39 assists, 59 points in 114 games. That’s 0.52 points per game. While he started young and battled serious injury, there’s really been no stretch where Seguin’s been a post-season performer. In Dallas’ 2020 run, he had just two goals in 26 games despite averaging 18+ minutes.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="4" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="142"></div>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-16.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="719" height="483" src="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-16.png" alt="" class="wp-image-154602" srcset="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-16.png 719w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-16-300x202.png 300w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-16-150x101.png 150w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-16-600x403.png 600w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-16-696x468.png 696w" sizes="(max-width: 719px) 100vw, 719px"></a></figure></div>


<p></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Since Expansion</h3>



<p><em>Minimum 60 career playoff games</em></p>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-17.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="697" height="715" src="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-17.png" alt="" class="wp-image-154603" srcset="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-17.png 697w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-17-292x300.png 292w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-17-150x154.png 150w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-17-300x308.png 300w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-17-600x615.png 600w" sizes="(max-width: 697px) 100vw, 697px"></a></figure></div>


<p></p>



<p>We’ll touch briefly on the post-expansion underachiever list. <strong>Teemu Selanne</strong> stands out as the only Hall of Famer, but some additional context is needed. Just 21 of Selanne’s 130 career playoff caps came in his 20s, so his post-season career is largely as an elder statesman rather than in his prime.</p>



<p>Some of the names are fascinating as they directly oppose the player’s reputation. <strong>Robert Reichel</strong> famously scored the only shootout goal in the 1998 Nagano Olympics vs. Canada on the way to gold… he’s #3. <strong>John LeClair</strong> scored two overtime goals in Montreal’s 1993 title run and <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/should-six-outstanding-seasons-get-a-player-into-the-hockey-hall-of-fame-featuring-john-leclair" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">starred on U.S.A.’s</a> 1996 World Cup winner… he’s #7. <strong>Keith Primeau</strong> scored the winner in the fifth overtime of the longest game in modern NHL history… he’s #11. Triple Gold club members <strong>Pavel Datsyuk</strong>, <strong>Alexander Mogilny</strong>, and <strong>Eric Staal</strong>?… #14, #17, and #24. Wild GM and two-time Cup winner <strong>Bill Guerin</strong> was as respected a veteran presence as you could find… he’s #25.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="5" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="168"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-defensemen">Defensemen 📉</h2>



<p><em>Minimum 0.4 era adjusted points per game in regular season career</em></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Active</h3>



<p><em>Minimum 45 career playoff games</em></p>



<p>We won’t count down the bottom 10 defensemen as, quite frankly, scoring by defensemen lacks the sizzle associated with forwards. But there’s plenty to highlight.</p>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-18.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="701" height="473" src="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-18.png" alt="" class="wp-image-154604" srcset="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-18.png 701w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-18-300x202.png 300w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-18-150x101.png 150w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-18-600x405.png 600w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-18-696x470.png 696w" sizes="(max-width: 701px) 100vw, 701px"></a></figure></div>


<p></p>



<p>Public Enemy #1 <strong>Jacob Trouba</strong> sees the most significant drop in production come playoff time (-52%!) among active defenders. That’s a shame. Runner-up is two-time Cup champ <strong>Mikhail Sergachev</strong>, who put up just 23 points in 71 games across Tampa’s three Cup Finals appearances. The only Norris winner to grace the list is <strong>Roman Josi</strong>, having anchored middling Nashville playoff teams outside of 2016-18.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Since Expansion</h3>



<p><em>Minimum 60 career playoff games</em></p>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-19.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="705" height="618" src="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-19.png" alt="" class="wp-image-154605" srcset="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-19.png 705w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-19-300x263.png 300w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-19-150x131.png 150w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-19-600x526.png 600w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-19-696x610.png 696w" sizes="(max-width: 705px) 100vw, 705px"></a></figure></div>


<p></p>



<p>The post-expansion defensemen list leans toward offense-first types largely bound to mediocre teams. <strong>Phil Housley </strong>(#20) is the lone Hall of Famer, having gotten out of the first round just twice in 21 seasons. Tough beat, Phil. Perennial star <strong>Shea Weber</strong> (#12) — coming to a <a href="https://www.hhof.com/induction/induction2024/InductionEligible.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">2024 Hall of Fame ballot</a> near you — also stands out. Roughly one-third of Weber’s post-season career, however, came in Montreal on his last legs, harming his per-game output.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="6" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="187"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Closing Thoughts</h2>



<p>Simply having fewer playoff points doesn’t always tell the full picture. We’re excluding defensive play, the mix of goals versus assists, the leverage of player contributions, and many immeasurable factors.</p>



<p>But our deep dive into playoff underachievers is revealing. The biggest takeaway? Playoff reputations are merely that… reputations. Peeling back underlying post-season production tells us that Cup winners and clutch athletes may not even be solid playoff performers. In fact, a number of decorated, “big-game” players are among the top post-season underperformers in the last five-plus decades of NHL hockey.</p>



<p>While players often come by their reputations honestly, sometimes they don’t. Next time, be sure to skip the public narrative and take a closer look under the hood.</p>



<p><strong>Coming soon:</strong> Playoff Over-Performers… get your guesses ready.</p>



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<p><em>Follow&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/AdjustedHockey" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@AdjustedHockey</a>&nbsp;on X; Data from&nbsp;<a href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Hockey-Reference.com</a></em>,&nbsp;<a href="http://www.nhl.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">NHL.com</a></p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="7" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="132"></div>



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