Congratulations, Anaheim Ducks. You were the worst team in the NHL in 2022-23.
The reward? The best odds at landing the latest hockey phenom, Connor Bedard. The team has The Ducks have a 25.5 percent chance of landing the first pick, with Columbus (13.5) and Chicago (11.5) rounding out the top three. If draft simulators can tell you anything, it’s that you’re definitely not guaranteed anything once the lottery balls start bouncing.
The lottery will take place May 8, with the top 11 teams having a chance to land the first overall pick. Other non-playoff teams can win the lottery, but can’t advance more than 10 spots.
So, sorry, Calgary, you’re not landing Bedard. In fact, it’s Bedard’s hometown Vancouver Canucks with the lowest odds of landing the first overall pick at 3.0 percent after a late season surge pushed them farther up the NHL standings – and well out of the Bedard race.
These days, teams can only win the lottery twice in a five-year span. The team with the best odds won it the past two years, with Montreal taking Juraj Slafkovsky in 2022 and Buffalo selecting Owen Power the year prior. The New York Rangers won the lottery with the 14th-best odds in 2020 and took Alexis Lafreniere. Of the teams with the top three odds, Chicago (2007) is the only team to have selected first overall in the salary cap era.
To learn more about what makes Bedard the best prospect since Connor McDavid, click here.
Fall Hard for Bedard
NHL Draft Lottery Odds
| Rank | Team | Record | Pts % | Lottery Odds |
| 1. | Anaheim Ducks | 23-47-12 | .354 | 25.5% |
| 2. | Columbus Blue Jackets | 25-48-9 | .360 | 13.5% |
| 3. | Chicago Blackhawks | 26-49-7 | .360 | 11.5% |
| 4. | San Jose Sharks | 22-44-16 | .366 | 9.5% |
| 5. | Montreal Canadiens | 31-45-6 | .415 | 8.5% |
| 6. | Arizona Coyotes | 28-40-14 | .427 | 7.5% |
| 7. | Philadelphia Flyers | 31-38-13 | .457 | 6.5% |
| 8. | Washington Capitals | 35-37-10 | .488 | 6.0% |
| 9. | Detroit Red Wings | 35-37-10 | .488 | 5.0% |
| 10. | St. Louis Blues | 37-38-7 | .494 | 3.5% |
| 11. | Vancouver Canucks | 37-37-7 | .500 | 3.0% |
As a result of Draft Lottery rule changes made effective in 2021, a team may only move up a maximum of 10 spots from their finishing position. That means only the bottom 11 teams have a shot at the No. 1 overall pick. Therefore, instead of the published odds which indicate the 32nd place team has an 18.5 percent chance – which was accurate when all 16 non-playoff teams had a crack at the No. 1 pick – the additional percentages from those five clubs are effectively applied to the 32nd place finisher.