2023 NHL Trade Deadline Playbook: Calgary Flames

Jan 26, 2023

2023 NHL Trade Deadline Playbook: Calgary Flames

Think you know sports? PointsBet Canada is live in Ontario!

_____

With just over five weeks to go until the NHL’s trade deadline on March 3, we’ve got you covered at Daily Faceoff with one trade-focused story each day leading up to Deadline Day.

Today we’re going to dive deep on the Calgary Flames.

2023 Trade Deadline Countdown: 36 days

CALGARY FLAMES
Current Record: 23-16-9 (9th place in Western Conference)
General Manager: Brad Treliving (9th season)
Head Coach: Darryl Sutter (2nd full season)
Captain: Vacant

Last year: Lost to Edmonton Oilers (4-1) in Western Conference Semifinal.

Current Lineup: Click Here

Goals For: 3.13 (18th)
Goals Against: 2.96 (15th)
Power Play: 19.7% (23rd)
Penalty Kill: 82% (6th)

Key Additions

LW Jonathan Huberdeau – Acquired from Florida on July 22; re-signed 8 years, $84 million
C Nazem Kadri – Signed 7 years, $49 million
RD MacKenzie Weegar – Acquired from Florida on July 22; re-signed 8 years, $50 million

Key Subtractions
LW Johnny Gaudreau – Signed with Columbus, 7 years, $68.25 million
RW Matthew Tkachuk – Traded to Florida on July 22; re-signed 8 years, $76 million
RD Erik Gudbranson – Signed with Columbus, 4 years, $16 million
C Sean Monahan – Traded to Montréal on Aug. 18 with 2025 1st Round Pick
LD Juuso Valimaki – Claimed off waivers by Arizona on Oct. 9

Trainer’s Table
LD Oliver Kylington – Personal reasons, has not played this season.
RW Brett Ritchie – Out since Dec. 31 with wrist injury
RD Chris Tanev – Out day-to-day, expected to return after All-Star break

For the most part, the Flames have been ridiculously healthy this season, missing Ritchie for the month of January. Tanev also missed a string of games in early November. Coach Darryl Sutter said Wednesday the Flames are confident that Tanev’s current injury won’t linger too long. Nonetheless, Kylington’s time away from the team looms large as he’s counted on their salary cap all season long while in the NHL/NHLPA’s Player Assistance program.

Rewind: 2022 Deadline Playbook

It’s usually helpful to take a look back at last year’s approach to the trade deadline to see if any information can be gleaned as to how this one may unfold.

Feb. 14, 2022
To Calgary: Tyler Toffoli
To Montréal: 2022 1st Round Pick (Filip Mesar), Tyler Pitlick, Emil Heineman, 2023 5th Round Pick

March 16, 2022
To Calgary: Calle Jarnkrok
To Seattle: 2022 2nd Round Pick (David Goyette), 2023 3rd Round Pick, 2024 7th Round Pick, 50% retained

March 21, 2022
To Calgary: Ryan Carpenter
To Chicago: 2024 5th Round Pick

It’s safe to say that when he identifies a need, GM Brad Treliving is aggressive in trying to fill it. He jumped the market early last year by acquiring Toffoli well before the March 21 deadline. Toffoli provided Sutter with a player he’s familiar with and his team a scoring boost from below the dots. He then went out and addressed depth concerns by adding Jarnkrok, who was quiet in the playoffs, and a steady fourth line presence in Carpenter, who barely made a ripple in Calgary.

How did we get here?

“You can curl up and play woe-is-me, or dust yourself off and get after it, and that’s what we did.” Everyone remembers the drama-filled summer that drastically reshaped the Flames.

After Johnny Hockey walked and Matthew Tkachuk forced his way to Florida, the Flames didn’t sulk. They acquired Huberdeau and Weegar, signed Kadri and doubled-down on the trade by shelling out $134 million shekels to the former Panthers without them playing a game in the C of Red.

Yet, more than halfway through the season, there have been growing pains. Calgary is clinging to its playoff life, on the outside looking in, behind Minnesota in points percentage.

What’s happened? Perhaps the easiest answer is in net. Jacob Markstrom kicked at a .922 save percentage last year and has been eerily consistent on both sides of the holiday break with .895 and .896 splits. He has missed the ‘big save’ ability this season, and yet for his struggles, Sutter has refused to hand over the crease to Dan Vladar despite superior numbers.

To be fair, the total team defense in front of Calgary’s netminders has also not been quite as stout this season. That’s usually the hallmark of a Darryl Sutter team. According to Natural Stat Trick, each of the Flames’ top three forward lines are all on the negative side of the ledger when it comes to scoring chance differential and high-danger scoring chance differential. Those forwards are generally great at creating chances, especially at even-strength, but they aren’t great this season at slowing down opponents from creating them. Combined with Markstrom’s shaky play and tendency to give up the crushing goal, you can start to see why Calgary has been in trouble.

The Flames also have room for improvement. Reason for hope is that they have the league’s fourth-worst shooting percentage in all situations. They’re currently shooting 8.83 percent from the floor, well below the league average of 10 percent. Their lack of luck, as it were, helps explain why they’re only 16th in the league in offense despite a new-look, high-powered attack. Certain players in particular have struggled, with Andrew Mangiapane on pace for 17 goals after a 35-goal campaign last year. He’s been picked up by someone like Mikael Backlund, who is having a great year at age 33.

Add it all up and it’s been a frustrating start to the season, why Calgary is breathing hard to stay in the race one year after running away with the Pacific Division.

The question now is: What do they do about it?

Deadline Posture: Buyers

The Flames didn’t make all of that noise last summer to meekly stand pat at this year’s trade deadline. With the right moves, a boost in shooting percentage and better play from Markstrom, the Flames might actually be better positioned to go on a playoff run this spring than they were last year.

Calgary has the cap space to make just about any trade work. With a little over $4 million in projected space, even most of the high cap hit players in the league can be had with the help of a 50 percent salary retention, which mostly eliminates the need for a third-party broker and can keep the acquisition cost down. That number can grow depending on Kylington’s status.

Here’s the thing: With extensions kicking in for Huberdeau, Weegar and Vladar, they likely can’t afford to be taking on players with term on their contracts. That means they are more than likely going to be shopping in the rental market, preferably for a winger who can put the puck in the net at a high rate.

Top Objectives

For as perplexing as their season has been, the Flames’ needs are pretty clear. They don’t need a center. And they aren’t trading for goaltending. That leaves a few holes:

Primary Objective: Top six scoring winger with speed

In a perfect world, the Flames are able to find a winger who can skate well, consistently score and be on an expiring contract. They need someone dynamic and with a little swagger who can pack a punch in their top six, depositing feeds from Huberdeau, Elias Lindholm or Kadri.

Secondary Objective: Get clarity on (or replace) Oliver Kylington

Kylington’s story has flown under the radar, with everyone fully respecting his privacy as he remains home in Sweden in the NHL/NHLPA’s Player Assistance Program for personal reasons. Kylington has continued to train and skate, but not at a high level. His $2.5 million hit has also remained on the Flames’ books in-full. Their preference is to get him back to Calgary, get him skating and bring back a guy who was a big part of their top four last season. If that isn’t in the cards, there is a mechanism to be able to spend Kylington’s money as a non-roster player, but it will likely mean he won’t be able to rejoin the team later if he decides. Even if they’re able to spend Kylington’s money, Calgary will be hard pressed to find that same kind of value on the market at that price, not to mention the acquisition cost. Either way, they need clarity ASAP.

Potential Targets

Option A. Vladimir Tarasenko

When healthy, Tarasenko is one of the most consistent snipers over the last eight years. Last season was probably the best and most complete of his career, coming off of a third shoulder surgery to finally fix the problem. Tarasenko was just recently activated after suffering a hand injury but has been near a point-per-game this season on a struggling Blues team. The Flames can afford his cap hit with little help. Tarasenko is ready to move, having never rescinded his trade request from 2021, but holds all the cards with a full ‘no-trade.’ He was a critical cog in St. Louis’ 2019 run to the Stanley Cup with 11 goals in 26 playoff games.

Option B. James van Riemsdyk

He certainly isn’t a burner, but ‘JvR’ is one of the most reliable goal scorers available at the deadline. Death, taxes and a 23-to-25 goal season. You can set your watch to it. Van Riemsdyk is confident and comfortable in his own game, hungry to win and an ultra-prepared pro who takes good care of himself. His acquisition cost will also likely be reasonable given his $7 million cap hit. He’s one way for the Flames to add without breaking the bank on future assets.

Option C. Ivan Barbashev

Like Tarasenko, Barbashev is another Blue on the block. He is a pending UFA, which works for Calgary, and he might be one worthy of taking a shot on to see if he can find the level he hit last season. It was only a year ago that Barbashev crushed out a career-best 26 goals and 60 points. He is 27 and has a cap hit ($2.25 million) that would leave room for Calgary to also add on the back end. But the biggest question mark surrounding Barbashev is his compete level from night to night.

Option D. Max Domi

What’s clear is Domi plays his best hockey when he’s at center. He’s having one of the better seasons of his career, flirting with the pace of his 28-goal campaign from 2018-19. But he’s also played a lot of wing in his career and provides nice versatility if the Flames run into injury issues down the middle. Domi isn’t going to cost a ton and he also brings an edge to his game, never afraid to be a catalyst. He’s played the bulk of the season on a line with Patrick Kane and Andreas Athanasiou, two other wingers potentially on the move, including Athanasiou who has speed to burn.

Trade Chips

Projected $4 million in cap space, could grow to $6.5 million if Kylington does not return.
2023 1st and 2nd Round Picks
LD Jeremie Poirier: Impressive rookie pro season with 24 points in 37 games with the AHL Wranglers. It looks like Calgary’s blueline is full for the next number of years, so Poirier might be boxed out numbers-wise.
LD Yan Kuznetsov: For similar reasons, the far more defensively minded Kuznetsov could make sense as an option to move.
F Emilio Pettersen: The 22-year-old Norwegian is on track to double last year’s production.