2024–25 NHL team preview: Montreal Canadiens

Sep 6, 2024

2024–25 NHL team preview: Montreal Canadiens

Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

LAST SEASON

After their miraculous 2021 Stanley Cup Final run, the Montreal Canadiens have struggled mightily, missing the playoffs in three consecutive seasons and failing to post more than 31 wins in a year.

Expectations were low for Le Bleu, Blanc et Rouge (excuse my Eastern Ontario “Frenglish”) in 2023-24, and the team finished 30-36-16 with 76 points, last in the Atlantic Division, second-last in the Eastern Conference and fifth-worst in the entire NHL. If you didn’t follow the team too closely, you might be shocked to learn the club was only slightly below average for the first half of the regular season, with a 20-21-8 record heading into February, giving opponents quality competition on any given night. They weren’t a playoff lineup, but fans seemed pleasantly surprised.

Reality set in in February after they traded forward Sean Monahan to the Winnipeg Jets, when the Canadiens went 3-7-1, losing those eight games by a combined score of 36-20. Montreal struggled to produce offense, and their bad defensive metrics and goaltending not quite superhuman enough to bail them out led to another futile campaign with another high lottery pick.

Now just weeks before the start of the 2024-25 regular season, many of the same questions that have plagued the Canadiens follow them into a new year: where will the offense come from? Who will get the majority of the starts in goal? Can Juraj Slafkovsky take another big step in his development? Will any of the team’s prospects solidify their spots in the lineup? And finally, will any team take on Brendan Gallagher’s contract?

Let’s take a look.

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions

Patrik Laine, RW
Alex Barre-Boulet, F
Connor Hughes, G

Departures

Jordan Harris, D (CBJ)
Tanner Pearson, LW (VGK)
Johnathan Kovacevic, D (NJ)
Chris Wideman, D (Retired)
Mitchell Stephens, C (SEA)
Colin White, C (SJ)
Philippe Maillet, C (Switzerland)
Lias Andersson, C (Switzerland)
Filip Cederqvist, F (Sweden)
Jesse Ylonen, RW (TB)
Mattias Norlinder, D (Sweden)

OFFENSE

The team as a whole struggled to produce offense last season, finishing 26th in goals and 27th on the power play with a measly 17.5 percent. Trading away Monahan had a hand in that, as the 2013 No. 6 overall pick ended up having a successful bounceback season, scoring 13 goals and 35 points for the Canadiens before being moved to the Jets. To put into context how difficult it was for the Habs to score, Monahan, despite only playing 49 games with them, still finished fifth on the team in points.

Nick Suzuki took another step forward in 2023-24, finishing with 33 goals and 44 assists for 77 points, career highs across the board. Cole Caufield also had a strong offensive campaign with 28 goals and 37 assists for 65 points, although his goal rate took a step back from the previous season, where he scored 26 in just 46 games.

The real question is how Slafkovsky, the likely left winger on Montreal’s top line, does in his third full season in the league. The 2022 first-overall pick had fans scratching their heads after his rookie campaign, scoring just four times in 39 games, then starting the 2023-24 season about as poorly as he could, with just two goals in his first 31 games. The term “bust” was trending on social media every night Slafkovsky couldn’t score, and some started wondering if there was anything you could hang your hat on. But something clicked in the second half of the season, with the Slovakian winger recording 18 goals and 24 assists for 42 points in the final 51 games, looking more confident when fighting for pucks in corners and finding a comfortable spot on the power play taking one timers. This may not be scientific or analytical, but it looked like Slafkovsky was having fun, like he enjoyed the game. If he can carry that attitude and replicate that production next season, that top line of him, Suzuki and Caufield might be one of the most dangerous in the Atlantic Division.

The other player we haven’t mentioned is Patrik Laine, whom the team acquired in a trade last month with the Columbus Blue Jackets. There was a case to be made that when Laine was with the Jets between 2016 and 2019, he was one of the purest goal scorers in the league, possessing an effortless wrist shot that had eyes and found the back of the net again, and again, and again.

But he struggled to evolve beyond being a 30-ish goal guy and his development felt stunted in Winnipeg. They traded him to Columbus, and the same scouting report followed him: constantly injured, low motor, can’t live up to his potential. Last January, he entered the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, only to be cleared near the end of July, and it was clear he and the club would pursue a trade for a fresh start. Only 26 years old, there’s no doubt he carries plenty of talent, but it’s unclear if we’ve already seen the best of what he can do.

DEFENSE

The Canadiens’ defensive core struggled last season, with no one posting an even-strength Corsi of 50 percent and a lot of nights where the team was giving up four, five, six or more goals a night. Actually, they had 22 games in 2023-24 where they gave up at least five goals in a contest. That is outrageous. Montreal fans don’t need me telling them it was fairly common to see one of Mike Matheson and David Savard get walked in their own end or letting an opposing forward get open in front of the net on any given night.

But going into 2024-25, there’s a lot to like about the Habs’ blueline. Kaiden Guhle, fresh off signing a six-year, $33.3 million contract extension in the offseason, will have a chance to continue developing into a top-pair defenseman. Matheson, for all his defensive struggles, is an offensive machine and will likely anchor the Canadiens’ power play again. Justin Barron, a first-round pick for the Colorado Avalanche in 2020, will have a chance to earn more minutes and take a bigger role, and prospects Lane Hutson and Logan Mailloux will each have a shot at making the club out of training camp (more on them later).

One player to keep an eye on is fan favourite Arber Xhekaj, who earned a spot in the league with his fists and signed a two-year extension in July. I’m always fascinated by modern tough guys in the NHL and what type of things they can do other than drop the gloves and protect teammates. Playing mostly third-pair minutes, Xhekaj held his own defensively and gave the Canadiens both size and a reliable first pass. We’ll see if he continues to improve in 2024-25.

GOALTENDING

Jake Allen played the role of wily veteran for most of the season, splitting starts with Sam Montembeault before being traded to the New Jersey Devils at the deadline. Sam Montembeault, to his credit, played relatively well in front of a mediocre blueline, posting a 16-15-9 record with a .903 save percentage (SV%) and 3.14 goals-against average (GAA). The underlying numbers suggest he was better than that; among 65 goalies with 20 or more appearances, he sat 22nd in 5-on-5 goals saved above expected per 60.

It was Montembeault’s third consecutive season of playing somewhere between 38 and 41 games, and that workload should increase next season as he enters the year with the starting job. Will the extra games and clear No. 1 status be a benefit to him, or could he begin to struggle as the season progresses?

Meanwhile, Cayden Primeau, who has spent the majority of his career with the club’s AHL team, the Laval Rocket, will be Montembeault’s backup. Through four AHL seasons, Primeau has posted a near .910 SV% and a GAA under three, and in 23 NHL appearances last year, he posted a very respectable .910 SV% and 2.99 GAA, including two shutouts.

While Montembeault will likely get the majority of starts, Primeau has a chance to carve out a reputation for himself as a legitimate NHL goaltender, and don’t sleep on the fact he’ll be a pending restricted free agent with something to prove.

COACHING

For a coach who has finished last in the division in all three of his NHL seasons, there’s something refreshing about Martin St. Louis. The Hall of Fame player joined the Canadiens midway through the 2021-22 season with no coaching experience beyond his son’s Triple-A team. However, despite the lack of results, it does feel like he’s breathed new life into a Canadiens club that’s in the midst of a rebuild, and players do seem to respond to him.

There’s a quote St. Louis gave to Montreal Gazette columnist Stu Cowan after training camp last season that’s always stuck with me, and I think will be a theme for this season:

“I’m a big believer – especially with young guys – I look at their ceiling,” he said. “I don’t care about the floor. I really don’t when they’re young. Show me your ceiling – we’ll fix the floor.”

I think that’s such a great mindset for young players, especially when they’re really just raw pieces of cookie dough that aren’t even close to being taken out of the oven, let alone shaped into cookies. For the last few years, wins and losses haven’t mattered to the Habs: just focus on the process. It’s been a treat to see guys like Suzuki and Caufield develop, and we have another season to find out how big a step the rest of the prospect pool takes.

ROOKIES

I mentioned them earlier, but the two rookies I’ll be keeping the closest eye on are Mailloux and Hutson. I saw plenty of Mailloux in person with the GOJHL’s London Nationals and OHL’s London Knights, and it’s clear the 2021 first-round pick is absurdly talented with the puck. Last season with the Rocket, he scored 14 goals and 33 assists for 47 points, ridiculous numbers for a 20-year-old defender in the AHL. There’s no doubt he’s got the hands for an NHL offensive defenseman, but it’s his play in his own end that will need to tighten up if he wants a full-time job.

Same applies for Hutson, a second-round pick who spent the last two seasons at Boston University. His 2022-23 season was one of the greatest single years for a freshman blueliner in NCAA history, recording 48 points and leading the entire Hockey East conference in scoring, regardless of position. Like with Mailloux, there’s a case to be made that Hutson’s already got the talent to be in the league, but unlike the 6-foot-3 Mailloux, the 5-foot-10 Hutson may need time to develop before he can confidently go up against the best players in the world on a consistent basis. That said, when both players debuted in the NHL late last season, Hutson was entrusted with more than 22 minutes of ice time per game, so he enters camp with the edge on Mailloux to make the team.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. Can Patrik Laine find his game? Whenever a player with lots of talent who fails to get results is traded, there’s always questions of whether a change of scenery can turn things around. Laine already went through this when he was dealt from Winnipeg to Columbus, and injuries combined with a lack of team chemistry left those questions unanswered. The way I see it, Laine has two years remaining on his deal, and the rebuilding Canadiens don’t mind having his $8.7 million annual average value on their salary cap.

There are three ways this could go: He’s terrible and Montreal either buries him on the fourth line or trades him for pennies on the dollar to another team; he finds some success and the Canadiens eat a chunk of his salary in a trade similar to the Monahan deal that netted them a first-round pick; or we see the 30-to-40 goal scorer we saw in the first two years of his career, a dynamic sniper who thrives in his new surroundings and wants to be part of their return to the playoffs.

It’s up to Laine to shape their choice.

2. Is Martin St. Louis ‘The Guy’? As I mentioned earlier, St. Louis has done a lot of good things with this club and I expect they’ll take at least some kind of step forward in 2024-25. However, go through the history of rebuilding squads, and during the transition from a non-playoff team to a playoff one, there’s usually a change behind the bench. Sometimes, it’s not even an indictment of the coach, but a moment where they’ve gotten as much out of the group as they can, and it’s time for a fresh voice.

Montreal exercised a two-year option for St. Louis that extends into 2026-27, but if they’re unable to start making a run at the post-season, he may end up being “the guy before The Guy.”

3. Can the Habs improve their power play? You show me an NHL playoff team, I’ll show you someone who usually finishes in the top half of the league with the man advantage. They’ve been near the bottom of the league the last three seasons, but in the second half of 2023-24, they started capitalizing around the same time Slafkovsky started ramping up his production. If they’re able to get him clicking, taking one timers from the dot, Habs fans might actually start to get excited when the power play unit rolls onto the ice.

PREDICTION

It may not say Debbie Downer on my driver’s license, but it would be a stretch to say the Canadiens will be a playoff team in 2024-25. What I will say, is that they’re going to be much, much more exciting to watch, and we could see them play meaningful hockey in March and April. The Atlantic Division is hell to parse through – just ask the Detroit Red Wings – and I don’t think they’ll be better than Detroit or the four Atlantic teams that made the playoffs last season. But could they string together some wins and play an all-round better game?

I’ve got three words for you: Vive Les Habitants!

_____