LAST SEASON

After missing the playoffs in 2022-23 for the first time in nine years, and just the second time in 15, trouble seemed to be brewing in Washington. They had a core of aging players, and while they had a few solid, younger pieces surrounding them, there wasn’t a lot going for them. Along with only some minor changes to the lineup in the summer, the 2023-24 Capitals didn’t have a lot going for them. Well, except for Alex Ovechkin’s continuous quest for the all-time goals record, which felt inevitable considering his goal-scoring prowess, even at 38…

And then Ovechkin started the season with just eight goals in 43 games. Suddenly the one highlight to the Capitals‘ season no longer felt like an inevitable thing and became a matter of if he could pull it off. But Ovechkin caught fire in the last half of the season, all while the Caps hung around in the playoff race until the final days of the schedule. They managed to sneak in to the eighth seed thanks to a 2-1 win over the Philadelphia Flyers, with the game-winning goal being an empty netter because Flyers coach John Tortorella went all in on a regulation win for the Flyers even though the Detroit Red Wings had already eliminated the Flyers from playoff contention, and then the goal and win clinched the final spot for the Caps and eliminated the Red Wings. It was a confusing and chaotic day; you had to be there.

But, the Capitals were clearly outclassed compared to the rest of the Eastern Conference in the playoffs, going in with the worst goal differential (-37) of any team to qualify since 1991, and the New York Rangers walked all over them on route to a four-game sweep, outscoring the Caps 15-7. But, the Caps showed that they still had some life in them overall, so management took that as a sign to make some moves. They moved out a few pieces and added several, especially on the back end, and now they’ve gone from a one-and-done playoff team to looking like a competitive playoff team. But are the moves enough to make the Caps a legitimate threat for the playoffs, or are they just better suited to get Ovechkin to 894 goals?

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions

Pierre-Luc Dubois, C
Jakob Chychrun, D
Matt Roy, D
Andrew Mangiapane, LW
Logan Thompson, G
Brandon Duhaime, RW
Taylor Raddysh, RW
Jakub Vrana, LW (PTO)

Departures

Darcy Kuemper, G (LA)
Nick Jensen, D (Ott)
Max Pacioretty (Tor PTO)
Matthew Phillips, RW (Col)
Nicolas Aube-Kubel, RW (Buf)
Lucas Johansen, D (Nsh – PTO)
Beck Malenstyn, LW (Buf)

OFFENSE

Remember when the Capitals were a high-flying offensive team? Yeah, these aren’t those Capitals. They finished the season 28th in goals for per game (2.63) & 5v5 shot attempts for per 60 minutes (53.48), and were 26th in 5v5 expected goals per 60 (2.46), and in the case of all three stats, they were the worst among the 16 playoff teams in 2024. The only thing that somewhat resembled a competent scoring threat was their power play, which was still only 18th in the league at 20.6%.

It shouldn’t be a surprise that the lack of scoring carried over to their players’ scoring outputs. Dylan Strome led the way in scoring with only 67 points. Somehow, five teams had a leading scorer with a lower total than that, but four of them were lottery teams (Anaheim Ducks, Chicago Blackhawks, Columbus Blue Jackets and San Jose Sharks), and the other was the Buffalo Sabres. Not a good group to be in.

Beyond that, only Ovechkin (65) and Carlson (52) had more than 35 points on the Caps. To the team’s credit, they did have 14 players put up at least 20 points, but that is an incredible lack of top-end scoring. Oh, and remember when Ovi had his down season for goals? He still led the team in goals, and was their only 30-goal scorer, while Strome (27) and Anthony Mantha (20) had at least 20 goals.

It’s safe to say that they need a bit of an offensive punch this season. However, I wouldn’t exactly say any of the new additions come with a guarantee to provide that. Dubois has hit 60 points thrice, with a career high of just 63. Mangiapane scored 35 goals in 2021-22 but has otherwise never hit the 20-goal mark. Chychrun has a career high of 41 points, but has only hit that mark twice along with another 30-point season. Raddysh had 20 goals and 37 points in 2022-23 but has otherwise never hit 20 points. Vrana ranks fifth in the NHL in 5v5 goals per 60 minutes since entering the league in 2016-17, but has never been able to establish the minutes to translate that rate to actual results (assuming he gets a contract).

At the very least, they didn’t lose a lot of offense outside of Pacioretty and T.J. Oshie (LTIR) this season, and Ovechkin probably will get more than 31 goals next year, so if a couple of these gambles hit, it’s already an improvement on last year. But there aren’t a lot of surefire bets joining this team for a squad that desperately needs some.

DEFENSE

You would think that a team that made the playoffs like the Capitals would make up for their poor offense with elite defense, but no. They finished the season 16th in goals against per game (3.07), 24th in 5v5 shot attempts against per 60 (62.46), were tied for 22nd in 5v5 expected goals against per 60 with 2.7, and were 19th in penalty killing with a 79% success rate. Not nearly as bad as their offense, but not much of an improvement.

A big reason for their defensive inconsistencies last season was that a lot of the older core still getting big minutes just could not hold their own defensively anymore. Tom Wilson (-0.8 defensive goals above replacement), Oshie (-2.6), Kuznetsov (-3), Carlson (-5) and Ovechkin (-8.7) were not good in their own zone, with Ovi’s total being the fifth worst among all players. There were a few other culprits like Joel Edmundson (-1), Hendrix Lapierre (-1.5), Rasmus Sandin (-3), Connor McMichael (-3) and Nick Jensen (-3.4), but a few of them also played their fair share of minutes with that older group.

There were still some bright spots, especially among some returning players. Trevor van Riemsdyk (9.2), Martin Fehervary (6), Alex Alexeyev (5.5), Nic Dowd (4.5), Sonny Milano (3.2), Aliaksei Protas (2.4) and Dylan Strome (1.5) all proved to be more than capable of holding their own in their own zone. However, only Fehervary and Strome finished in the top four of defensemen or top six of forwards in terms of average ice time, so a majority of the Caps’ defensive help came from their depth.

While Washington’s additions are more of a gamble offensively, their back end adds come with a better guarantee for defensive help. Roy (6.1) and Chychrun (2.2) were both excellent defensively last year, and considering that will be in replacement of Jensen and Edmundson who weren’t good in that regard, it actually gives them a strong complement of blueliners alongside van Riemsdyk, Fehervary and Alexeyev. Carlson and Sandin are still defensive drags, but with their surrounding group they can be sheltered.

As for their forward adds, it’s not quite as good of a defensive addition. Duhaime (-0.6), Dubois (-1.1), Mangiapane (-2) and Vrana (-3.9) all had negative defensive GARs last season, and only Duhaime (2.6 overall GAR) and Mangiapane (5.7) made up for it offensively to have a positive difference. Ultimately, the forwards are going to need a bit of work to catch up defensively.

GOALTENDING

If there was one aspect of last year’s Caps team that was a positive, it was the emergence of Charlie Lindgren. The slated starter in Darcy Kuemper struggled all year with an .890% save percentage and a -1.73 goals saved above expected through 33 games, so it gave Lindgren the perfect opportunity to step forward and take the reigns. He certainly didn’t squander his opportunity, as he finished the year with a .911% save% and an 18.58 GSAx, which ranked 10th and 8th among goalies with at least 40 starts. He had just 60 career games before last season, so there is still a bit of uncertainty on whether last year was a flash in the pan, but the Capitals are betting on him to repeat his success in 2024-25.

Should Lindgren falter, Washington has a new 1B in place after acquiring Logan Thompson from the Vegas Golden Knights, and while there is also a bit of uncertainty in his skill level with just 103 games, he also comes with a similar upside at a much younger age. 2022-23 saw him be an early Calder Trophy candidate, and if not for injuries, he likely backstops the Golden Knights to their Cup that season. Last season saw him go toe-to-toe with Adin Hill with a .909% save% and 6.85 GSAx, and actually usurp Hill as the starter for the playoffs (before they ultimately went back to Hill for the final three games). Ultimately, it’s a solid duo in the crease for the Caps with plenty of upside, and with the blueline in front of Lindgren and Thompson, they might be one of the more underrated goalie duos in the league.

COACHING

It’s hard to get a full read on how well Spencer Carbery did in his first season as head coach of the Capitals. On one hand, they finished the year with a -37 goal differential, a middling defense and struggling offense, along with having the worst 5v5 expected goals for percentage among all playoff teams at just 47.59%. But on the other hand, he was not given a high-end roster to work with, and those middling to bad results could be more on then-GM Brian MacLellan than on Carbery. At the end of the day, a team that didn’t look like a playoff team made the playoffs under his watch, and he probably played a strong role in that happening.

With Carbery now in his second season with the Caps, and a slightly better roster in front of him, it will be interesting to see if he can repeat that success and bring them back into the playoffs. The biggest test to his coaching prowess might be how well the offense does this year, and how much he can get out of their new additions. A lot of them come with uncertainty, but also the potential to do really well, so if Carbery puts them in the right roles, it could be significantly better. But again, if it fails, it might be more on management than the coaching at this stage of the Ovechkin era in Washington.

ROOKIES

Despite spending recent years in a perpetual state of mediocrity, the Caps have still managed to draft and develop young talent quite well. It’s not exactly a star-studded pool of prospects, but they’ve at least managed to get players who have managed to make an impact in a middle of the lineup or depth role, like Connor McMichael, Hendrix Lapierre, Aliaksei Protas, Martin Fehervary and Alexander Alexeyev. It’s allowed Washington to somewhat reboot their competitive window to at least contend for the playoffs again, although they lack the high-upside talent to compete for a Cup.

The one exception is Ryan Leonard, their 2023 first-round pick, who has the talent to be a future top scorer for the team when Ovechkin eventually retires. However, he’ll be returning to Boston College this season, so that leaves the Caps to strictly depth scoring options among their rookies. Ivan Miroshnichenko got into 21 games last season and will likely play some more this season, and Vincent Iorio played six and could get into more action, but other than that, a lot of the Capitals’ top rookies will likely return to the CHL or the NCAA this year, and maybe get some games after their seasons end there. Ultimately, I wouldn’t hold my breath on any rookie being a significant difference maker for this franchise, outside of the possibility of happening to be the player that sets up Ovechkin’s record-breaking goal.

Burning Questions

1. Will Alex Ovechkin break Wayne Gretzky’s goal record this season? It’s very rare that a team’s main goal going into a season isn’t winning the Stanley Cup, but this year’s Caps might be an exception. Ovechkin sits just 41 goals behind Gretzky for the all-time goal scoring record, which is a mark that he’s hit in all but four 82-game seasons. The only concern is that one of those was last year, when he had just 31, although that did come with some brutal luck in the first half of the season. After Jan. 27, Ovechkin had 23 goals in 36 games, which was fifth in the league in that span and a 52-goal pace over 82 games. He might not be that good, but he won’t be as bad as 31 either, which might land him right in the middle to manage to just beat Gretzky’s record this season.

2. Will Pierre-Luc Dubois finally live up to his potential in Washington? To quote Tobias Funke from Arrested Development: “These people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might, but… but it might work for us.” That has to be the thought process in teams acquiring Dubois at this point, because so far he’s consistently disappointed wherever he goes. He certainly has the potential, but he’s also never eclipsed more than 63 points in a season in his eight-year career. The Caps took a gamble on acquiring him and his albatross contract to offload Darcy Kuemper’s deal, so maybe the Caps can unlock something that other teams haven’t been able to, but three other teams have thought that so far.

3. Are the Capitals back to being a consistent playoff team? The past couple of seasons have been looking really ugly in Washington. That older core of Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie and John Carlson that won the Cup in 2018 had been hit hard by age, leaving the team in state of mediocrity. But Washington did a good job of adding some younger players into the lineup and have now made a few big adds in free agency to really improve the team. Now, they look like a strong bet to make the playoffs, but we won’t know for a couple of seasons if this is just a one-and-done situation or if they’ve reopened their playoff window.

PREDICTION

Should I predict if Ovechkin hits the goal record this season as well? At this point, that seems to be just as, if not more important than making the playoffs. Fine, I’ll do it. I’ll say we see a slight return to form from Ovechkin this year and he finds himself in the 40-goal range, and ultimately gets the 41st to tie the record and the 42nd to break it late in the season, possibly in the final games of the year. My bolder prediction there is that one of those two historic goals winds up being a key goal in the game that clinches the Capitals a playoff spot.

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