LAST SEASON

Since the Winnipeg Jets returned to the NHL ahead of the 2011-12 season, the seventh Canadian NHL franchise has found limited success, having once made it to the Western Conference Final in 2018 and only winning one Stanley Cup Playoff series otherwise. After another lackluster 2022-23 season where the Jets finished in the middle of the Western Conference and were eliminated by the eventual Stanley Cup-winning Vegas Golden Knights in the first round, Winnipeg looked to take a step forward.

The Jets traded disgruntled forward Pierre-Luc Dubois to the Los Angeles Kings for a package that included Gabe Vilardi, Rasmus Kupari, Alex Iafallo and a 2024 second-round pick. They let their former captain Blake Wheeler walk and named Adam Lowry his replacement. And just days before a regular season where fans and pundits alike weren’t sure if Winnipeg would be buyers or sellers, the club announced identical seven-year, $59.5-million contract extensions for franchise cornerstones Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck, signaling they were indeed all-in going into 2023-24.

A decent start in October and November evolved into a stretch of some of the best defensive hockey we’ve seen in the post-2004-05 lockout era, with the Jets going 34 consecutive games allowing three goals or fewer, one game short of the modern era mark set by the Minnesota Wild in 2014-15. Head coach Rick Bowness and his staff created a structure where Winnipeg would suffocate their opponent’s zone entries and keep shots to the perimeter, and if the other team was able to generate a quality scoring chance, they had to try and get past Hellebuyck and his .921 save percentage (SV%).

The Jets would end up going 52-24-6 with 110 points, finishing second in the Central Division and tying their franchise record for the most wins in a single campaign. But the NHL is a cruel league, and Winnipeg’s reward for having the fourth-best regular-season record and one of their greatest seasons in team history was facing the talent-laden Colorado Avalanche in the first round of the playoffs, losing in five games.

The Jets go into the 2024-25 season with a new head coach in Scott Arniel, who served as an associate coach with the team in the last two seasons, and tempered expectations in a Central Division that hosts juggernauts like the Avalanche and Dallas Stars, as well as a revamped Nashville Predators lineup. Can Winnipeg finally break through and pave themselves a path to the Stanley Cup Final? Or will we see hints of regression and a club that struggles to keep its head above water?

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions

Brayden Yager, C
Mason Shaw, C
Jaret Anderson-Dolan, C
Dylan Coghlan, D
Haydn Fleury, D
Eric Comrie, G
Kaapo Kahkonen, G

Departures

Sean Monahan, C (CBJ)
Tyler Toffoli, RW (SJ)
Rutger McGroarty, RW (PIT)
Brenden Dillon, D (NJ)
Nate Schmidt, D (FLA)
Laurent Brossoit, G (CHI)

OFFENSE

Ever since Winnipeg selected Scheifele with the No. 7 overall pick in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft – their first draft pick as Jets 2.0 – he’s been a model of consistency, recording nine consecutive seasons of 60 points or more, including three seasons of 30 goals or more. Kyle Connor isn’t far behind, and is somehow still one of the most underrated players in the game, with six 30-goal seasons in his first eight years in the league, including a team-leading 34 last season.

Defenseman Josh Morrissey proved that his 76-point 2022-23 campaign was no fluke, following up with 69 points last season. He may be a shade less productive than the Cale Makars and Quinn Hughes of the world, but expect Morrissey to continue producing at both even strength and on the power play.

Of course, there’s Nik Ehlers, who is coming off another 20-something goal, 60-something point campaign. The Jets’ 2014 first-round pick enters 2024-25 with one year remaining on his contract, and his name has been tied to trade rumors throughout the offseason. Unless they’re able to replace his production, I can’t envision a scenario where they move on him this season.

The big question for the Jets is how they’ll find goals beyond the names mentioned above. Vilardi missed 35 games due to injury in his first season with Winnipeg but still scored 22 goals and 36 points. If he can stay healthy and continue scoring at a 60-point pace, that will be a massive boost for a Winnipeg team that’s starving for offense. The same goes for Cole Perfetti, whom the club signed to a two-year, $6.5-million contract, securing one of their remaining restricted free agents. He managed to score 19 goals and 38 points, but inconsistent play led to him being healthy scratched toward the end of the season, including in four of the Jets’ five playoff games last spring.

Winnipeg had to trade for Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli last season to try and find offense beyond the very top. If the likes of Vilardi and Perfetti can get it going, along with other forwards like Lowry, Vladislav Namestnikov, Nino Niederreiter and Mason Appleton, it would go a long way for the team’s success beyond mid-April.

DEFENSE

As mentioned earlier, the Jets’ defensive game was among the toughest in hockey, giving up an average of just 2.41 goals per game, the second-best mark in the NHL. Morrissey is a legit No. 1 defenseman in this league, and his defense can be overlooked with all the offensive talent he possesses.

The Jets signed Dylan DeMelo (Shoutout to Jim Sandlak’s 1993 London Jr. Knights squad!) to a four-year extension in the offseason, and he’ll continue to be a reliable defensive partner for Morrissey. Dylan Samberg is entering his third full season in the NHL and looked comfortable in a second- and third-pair role last season. With the departure of Brenden Dillon and Nate Schmidt, expect his ice time to increase.

Two injuries that popped up through training camp were that of Ville Heinola (ankle) and Logan Stanley (knee). While Stanley is still listed in the projected season-long lineup at the top of this story, he and Heinola are expected to miss at least a month, leaving room for battles among newly acquired Haydn Fleury and Dylan Coghlan, each of which joined Winnipeg with hopes of a fresh start.

Don’t forget Colin Miller, acquired by the Jets at the Trade Deadline but only playing a handful of regular-season games and one playoff contest. Elias Salomonsson, Winnipeg’s 2022 second-round pick, hasn’t looked out of place at all during the preseason. He may not make the club, but keep an eye on him for down the road.

GOALTENDING

I mean, what else is there to say? Hellebuyck is one of hockey’s best goaltenders, winning the Veznia Trophy twice – including last season – and has been relied upon heavily since becoming the team’s full-time starter in 2016-17, leading the league in appearances four times since then. In 2023-24, he posted a 37-19-4 record with a .921 SV% and 2.39 goals-against-average (GAA), which is fairly close to an average season for the 31-year-old.

According to Hockey Reference, Hellebuyck’s goals saved above average (goals prevented based on save percentage and shots faced compared to league-average goaltending) was 31.8, the best in the league. In a just world, those who vote on the Hart Trophy would give Hellebuyck more love, because all Winnipeg’s success goes through him.

However, his playoff performances have left much to be desired, especially in the last two springs when his save percentage dropped to a measly .875, giving up more than three goals in eight of his last 10 games. In fact, during their first-round loss to the Avalanche last April, Hellebuyck gave up at least four goals in all five games. You can’t place all the blame on him, but it’s clear that when the pressure ramps up, he needs to be better.

His backup in 2023-24 was Laurent Brossoit, who was arguably hockey’s best No. 2 netminder, posting a 15-5-2 record with a .927 SV% and 2.00 GAA. After signing with the Chicago Blackhawks in the offseason, Winnipeg signed both Eric Comrie and Kaapo Kahkonen to compete for the No. 2 role.

COACHING

With Arniel replacing Bowness behind the bench, it will be interesting to see what kind of structural changes the Jets go through. Having spent the last two seasons with Winnipeg as an associate coach, the 62-year-old Arniel is familiar with this lineup and may have a few ideas when it comes to getting the most out of it.

Arniel only experience as an NHL head coach between the 2010-11 and 2011-12 season with the Columbus Blue Jackets, failing to make the playoffs in his first season and being let go midway through his second. As head coach of the AHL’s Manitoba Moose, he took them to a Calder Cup Final in 2009.

Beyond that, he’s spent 14 seasons as an assistant or associate with the Jets, Washington Capitals, New York Rangers and Buffalo Sabres. During his time as an assistant with the Rangers under Alain Vigneault and the Capitals under Peter Laviolette, Arniel began to take an interest in analytics and how to use numbers and information in his coaching evaluations. He told the Winnipeg Sun last summer that it’s all an effort to get ahead of the curve.

How Arniel differentiates himself from Bowness will be a key factor to this team’s success in 2024-25. While Bowness had plenty of regular-season success, he failed to translate that to the postseason. Jets fans are now hoping Arniel can learn from those mistakes.

ROOKIES

If I were to write this preview before Aug. 22, I would tell you that Rutger McGroarty, Winnipeg’s No. 14 overall pick in 2022 who just spent the last two seasons dominating at the University of Michigan, would have a decent shot of making the club. But the 20-year-old saw more opportunity elsewhere and requested a trade, winding up with the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for 2023 No. 14 overall pick Brayden Yager. The Jets’ newest acquisition is still a year or two away from making the club and was sent back down to the WHL’s Moose Jaw Warriors last week.

Brad Lambert, the club’s other first-round pick in 2022, performed very well in his first full pro season, scoring 21 goals and 34 assists for 55 points in 64 regular-season AHL games with the Moose last year. He finished second among AHL rookies and should continue to improve on that number in 2024-25. He may not make the team to start the season, but an injury or two may lead to him seeing a few games with the big club.

Another former first-round pick to keep an eye on is Chaz Lucius, whom the Jets selected No. 18 overall in 2021. Injuries have derailed his junior career and the start of his professional career, leaving him unable to play more than 26 games in a season in the last five years. In just 17 games last season, the center scored twice and added 11 assists, but an ankle injury sidelined him for the rest of the year. If he can stay healthy, there’s no doubt he could be a highly productive professional player – but that’s a giant if.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. Will the Jets move on from Nikolaj Ehlers? I mentioned earlier that rumors have swirled around Ehlers’ status with the Jets for quite some time, and they will continue to as he plays out the final year of his contract. Could the club re-sign him soon after this story is published and this whole burning question means nothing? Who knows! The Jets signed both Hellebuyck and Scheifele just two days before their first regular-season game last year, so put nothing past GM Kevin Cheveldayoff. But unless a team makes them an offer they can’t refuse, or the Jets stumble into mediocrity and become sellers before the Trade Deadline, why would they move off of one of the most prolific point producers in franchise history?

2. Will the Jets sell more tickets this season? This may shock you, but the Jets had the second-worst attendance in hockey last season, averaging just 13,490 fans per game, with only the Arizona Coyotes and their 4,600-capacity arena finishing behind them. Everyone was happy to see hockey back in Winnipeg when the Atlanta Thrashers moved up north, but considering how jarring it was to see home games with chunks of empty seats for a Canadian team with playoff expectations, it leaves a bad taste in the league’s mouth. Whether it’s a massive trade or postseason success, the Jets need to get the attention of their fans. If they don’t, they’ll start to get the attention of the league, and not the good kind.

3. Can the Jets follow through in the playoffs? If you’ve followed the Jets since their 2018 run to the Western Conference Final, you’ll know that before every season, at least a few pundits choose them as their “sexy pick” to win the Stanley Cup. On the surface, it makes sense, considering they have a Norris Trophy-caliber defender in Morrissey, an all-world netminder in Hellebuyck and play the exact style of hockey that teams who win the Stanley Cup play. But with just one playoff series win since 2018, the Jets are entering that 2005-2017 San Jose Sharks era where every year, we asked ourselves, “Is this the year?” Maybe the truth is that, just like with the Sharks, it’ll never come.

PREDICTION

With the additions the Predators made in the offseason, as well as perennial powerhouses in the Avalanche and Stars, there’s a case to be made the Jets may end up finishing fourth in the Central Division this season and be forced to fight for a Wildcard spot. But as any hockey observer will tell you, half the battle is just getting into the big dance and seeing what happens. If Arniel can find a way to squeeze more offense out of this group and Hellebuyck can be punctual in the postseason, there’s no reason why this club can’t make it to the second round and beyond.

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