As the NHL calendar shifts to September and training camp gets closer to starting, it means the offseason is coming to an end and most of the roster movement is out of the way (more on that in a minute).

That means it’s time to officially kick off this season’s salary cap rankings at Daily Faceoff, in which we take a look at all the different aspects of managing and excelling in the salary cap era and rank teams based on how well they do. That’s all done through a somewhat complex process and system, which I have outlined in a summary of its own for your convenience.

We’ve already examined the teams ranked 32nd to 25th & 24th to 17th, so this week we will take a look at the teams that ranked 16th to 9th, a mix of younger teams that hope to be on the rise to playoff contention, along with a lot of the faux Stanley Cup contenders that are held back by cap problems. It’s not exactly an interstate highway of transitional teams like 24 to 17, but this tier is still made up of many teams that aren’t quite where they want to be yet.

I mentioned in the past two weeks that I would be updating this list as news happens this year, considering the current state of restricted free agents. This week would have seen the first update after Seth Jarvis’ contract and even the Leon Draisaitl extension, but in the wake of Johnny Gaudreau’s tragic passing, I’ve decided to abandon that plan. As much as these lists are decided by stats and numbers, it just felt very inhumane to me to punish or reward the Columbus Blue Jackets’ positioning because of Gaudreau’s death. So much like past years, this list has been locked as of the release of the first part, even if it doesn’t quite paint the full picture with some key players’ contracts up in the air.

16. Vancouver Canucks (2023: 11th)

Good Contract Percentage: t-13th (2023: 8th)
Quality Cheap Deals: t-7th (2023: 16th)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: t-5th (2023: 7th)
Dead Cap Space: 20th (2023: 16th)
Quality of Core: t-24th (2023: 14th)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: t-19th (2023: 17th)

Remember the days of Jim Benning anchoring the Canucks to terrible deals? Those days are long in the past, as while the Canucks still aren’t a top tier team at cap efficiency, they are far better than what they used to be. Their dead cap space suffers as a result of Benning’s mistakes, as it’s particularly driven down by the buyout of Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s contract, but at this point a lot of the cap picture is of Patrik Allvin’s doing as he begins his fourth season at the helm of the Canucks.

Allvin hasn’t been perfect, as he’s been a bit inconsistent with handing out term to players like Filip Hronek and Dakota Joshua, and the Canucks roster still has its fair share of holes, making the amount they’ve spent not quite justifiable. But Allvin has still made significant strides from Benning’s tenure. Allvin is much more efficient at handing out quality contracts like Jake DeBrusk’s and Danton Heinen’s, surrounding the core with cheap depth like Daniel Sprong, and being diligent with the usage of NTC/NMCs, although admittedly some of that is still due to some key players being too young for those clauses. Vancouver is far from perfect, but it’s starting to look like they’re building towards being a consistent contender, partly due to smart decisions with their salary cap, or at least smarter than the old boss’ decisions.

15. Buffalo Sabres (2023: 12th)

Good Contract Percentage: 23rd (2023: 26th)
Quality Cheap Deals: t-11th (2023: 25th)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: t-2nd (2023: 1st)
Dead Cap Space: 13th (2023: 1st)
Quality of Core: t-26th (2023: 20th)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: 13th (2023: 12th)

The Sabres have seen a steady decline over the three years I’ve done these rankings, going from 9th to 12th to 15th, but still manage to stay in this third quarter of the list. However, you have to wonder about whether that’s a sign of consistency or if we’re seeing a team that was once this up-and-coming contender slowing down again and not making the decisions that need to be made to finally make the playoffs for the first time since 2011. There are some highlights, like their cheap quality deals and a lack of NTC/NMCs, but everything else is not pretty or has some question marks.

Where the Sabres really struggle is with their good contract percentage and the quality of their core. While they have some good contracts on their books, my model punishes them for giving out money to replacement-level players like Sam Lafferty, Jordan Greenway and Connor Clifton, and also is not quite sold on the big-money contracts handed out to younger players like Dylan Cozens, Owen Power and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (although there is still plenty of time for them to grow into those deals). Buffalo also took on some more dead cap space this season due to the Jeff Skinner buyout, a move that was quite puzzling considering that, while overpriced, he was still a great player, and they didn’t exactly replace that production with the money they saved, or even use that money in general. That’s also why, despite a roster that my model thinks is bottom-10 in the league, they have a good cap space to skill differential, as they have almost $10 million in cap space. The vision for the Sabres seemed a lot more clear two years ago, and now it looks more concerning for their future than anything. That’s not a situation that you want to be in 13 years into a playoff drought.

14. Winnipeg Jets (2023: 17th)

Good Contract Percentage: t-13th (2023: 15th)
Quality Cheap Deals: t-18th (2023: 30th)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: t-14th (2023: 14th)
Dead Cap Space: 28th (2023: 21st)
Quality of Core: t-5th (2023: 14th)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: t-4th (2023: 8th)

I feel like how the Jets turned out in my cap rankings isn’t too far off from the actual on-ice product. They’re good at a couple things, bad at a couple other things, but mostly mediocre, all adding up to a middling result that leaves them barely inside the top half. While the buyouts to Blake Wheeler and Nate Schmidt weigh down their dead cap space, and a strong core and more than $6 million in cap space balances out that scale, a lot of the Jets’ cap picture is very much undistinguished.

Winnipeg’s good contract percentage is a strong example of that, as a 57.89% success rate sees them floating just above that middle point, and when you consider that a couple of those bad contracts belong to two star players in Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor, that number doesn’t feel quite as strong. That said, the model loves Connor Hellebuyck’s new contract, and seeing Josh Morrissey go from being in the conversation for the worst contract in the league to actually being worth his deal is nice to see. The Jets also have a mediocre pool of quality cheap depth to pull from, and aren’t exactly strict with handing out NTC/NMCs either. It just feels very on brand for a Winnipeg team that has, at points, looked like a power house, but ultimately balances towards being middle of the pack without any true promise of a stronger future.

13. New York Rangers (2023: 8th)

Good Contract Percentage: 10th (2023: 7th)
Quality Cheap Deals: 1st (2023: 1st)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: t-20th (2023: 20th)
Dead Cap Space: 10th (2023: 13th)
Quality of Core: t-8th (2023: 14th)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: 30th (2023: 17th)

After a 2022-23 campaign that, playoffs aside, saw the New York Rangers take another step towards being a consistent contender with a more dominating on-ice presence, last season saw them regress into the same paper tiger form that relied too much on their power play and goaltending, much like 2021-22. I guess it works, considering that those were the two seasons that saw them make the Eastern Conference Final. However, that step back does hurt them in a few spots in my rankings, most notably with the cap space to skill differential because my model doesn’t rate this roster as highly as it probably should.

Case in point, the Rangers only have three “bad” contracts among their forward group, and two of them belong to their two best forwards: Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad. The lack of two-way play from both players has hindered them in my model for years, and it’s no different this year. That said, it continues to love Vincent Trocheck and Chris Kreider, and considering that Adam Fox ended up ranked as the best defenseman, it’s impossible for him to have a bad contract. The Rangers also have a surplus of quality cheap depth, highlighted by Matt Rempe, who graded out as a second-line level player in everything except goal-scoring and, to no one’s surprise, discipline. A core of Zibanejad, Trocheck and Fox also rates quite well, and New York is also seeing their dead cap space slowly improve as all of their buyouts have now cleared out (except for Brad Richards’ compliance buyout), leaving them with only around $500,000 in performance bonuses.

12. Boston Bruins (2023: 5th)

Good Contract Percentage: 18th (2023: 3rd)
Quality Cheap Deals: t-11th (2023: 9th)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: t-20th (2023: 20th)
Dead Cap Space: 12th (2023: 25th)
Quality of Core: t-8th (2023: 2nd)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: t-10th (2023: 10th)

The Bruins were certainly one of the noisier teams this offseason, handing out a seven-year, $7.75 million AAV deal to Elias Lindholm and a five-year, $5 million AAV deal to Nikita Zadorov while also moving on from Linus Ullmark and taking on Joonas Korpisalo’s contract. My model only rates one of those contracts as bad, and the biggest surprise is that it’s Lindholm’s, although Korpisalo would certainly join him if there was no salary retained on his deal. Jeremy Swayman’s contract status doesn’t exactly give us the best picture, and probably gives the Bruins more credit than they deserve with their cap space to skill differential, but we’ll work with what we have.

The Bruins don’t exactly have a lot going really well for them here, with just their quality of core ranking in the top 10 (excluding the cap space to skill differential that has $8.5 million with Swayman’s name on it). Their quality of core should probably be lower considering it contains all of Lindholm, Zadorov and Korpisalo, but it also includes three of their best players in David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm, all considered to be elite. On the opposite end, Boston doesn’t really have anything going poorly for them either, with their biggest concern being a few too many NTC/NMCs. If anything, where the Bruins rank here lines up well with where they find themselves on the ice: not the best, but for some reason, they just won’t die either.

11. Toronto Maple Leafs (2023: 20th)

Good Contract Percentage: 12th (2023: 13th)
Quality Cheap Deals: t-18th (2023: 25th)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: t-24th (2023: 31st)
Dead Cap Space: t-1st (2023: 1st)
Quality of Core: 15th (2023: 10th)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: t-8th (2023: 24th)

For the longest time, the Toronto Maple Leafs were the model of consistency with my cap rankings, even before I did them for Daily Faceoff. Despite the often criticized contracts given to their core four of Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner and William Nylander, Kyle Dubas had always found a way to navigate around them to create teams that were both cap-efficient and elite. Last year, the Leafs took one of the biggest drops in their first summer under Brad Treliving, and while his decisions haven’t been nearly as efficient as Dubas’, Treliving has since moved the team back into the top half of the list, and just outside the top 10.

What’s really made the difference for Toronto this season is how much more the model seems to like their team, or at least in relation to how much they’re spending on the team. The model considers the Leafs to be a top-five team, while only spending like a top-10 team, which doesn’t seem like a big gap but it’s much bigger compared to those of others. They still have no dead cap space holding them back, rank around the same in terms of good contract percentage despite a lot of moving parts coming and going this year, and while list of players they have locked up to term is a bit inconsistent in quality, it’s still much better than those of many other teams. Their only real concerns are the fact that Treliving still isn’t quite as good as Dubas was at securing quality cheap contracts (although he did improve), and that Toronto still hands out NTC/NMCs like candy. And in case you were wondering, the model likes the new Matthews contract and doesn’t like the new Nylander contract.

10. Utah Hockey Club (2023: 15th)

Good Contract Percentage: 16th (2023: 25th)
Quality Cheap Deals: t-3rd (2023: 19th)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: t-9th (2023: 1st)
Dead Cap Space: 19th (2023: 18th)
Quality of Core: t-20th (2023: 21st)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: t-6th (2023: 13th)

With the once-Arizona Coyotes moving on to a new city, it now means that for the first time in a long time for this franchise, they could spend money. As we’ve seen so far in these rankings, that can also lead to disaster if used poorly, but Utah managed to avoid that. Mikhail Sergachev’s contract isn’t a great one, nor is Sean Durzi’s new contract, but other blueline additions like John Marino and Ian Cole were favored very well by my model, both on the ice and the books. They also still have plenty of money to play with should they find themselves contending for a playoff spot at the trade deadline and want to make even more splashes.

This coincides very well with Utah seeing their recent draft picks begin to blossom, highlighted by the likes of Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther and Josh Doan, giving them one of the best pools of cheap depth to pull from. Utah is also more diligent with their NTC/NMCs, and looking at whom they’ve given them to, Alex Kerfoot is probably the only player that doesn’t need one. Along with that, their dead cap space is about a year away from looking much cleaner as Zack Kassian and Patrik Nemeth’s buyouts wrap up, and even a core of Sergachev, Durzi and Clayton Keller isn’t one to complain about, as much as my model doesn’t exactly love it. Dare I say it, this team looks like it’s finally ready to take the next step, especially now that they have an owner who actually wants to spend some money.

9. Dallas Stars (2023: 3rd)

Good Contract Percentage: 7th (2023: 6th)
Quality Cheap Deals: t-28th (2023: 6th)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: t-9th (2023: 17th)
Dead Cap Space: 22nd (2023: 11th)
Quality of Core: 1st (2023: 3rd)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: t-4th (2023: 16th)

The Stars were arguably the deepest team in the NHL last season, and a large reason for that was because of how well they managed the salary cap and got players to sign bargain contracts, which landed them third on my list last season. This year, they fall just outside of the top quarter of the league, as even though they still have a similarly deep team, it isn’t at quite the same level. A big reason for that is because of how they allocated their money for their blueline. Not only did they use up dead cap space to finally get out from under Ryan Suter’s contract, they then used the cap space on Matt Dumba, Ilya Lyubushkin and Brendan Smith, three contracts that the model does not like. They also don’t have nearly as many quality cheap deals as they did last year, partially because of Thomas Harley graduating to a new contract (when he signs it), and it’s Harley and Joe Pavelski’s performance bonuses that add even more dead cap space to the picture.

However, it’s far from all bad. My model considers the Stars to be a top-five team while not even spending enough money to be a playoff team (although that’s still subject to change with Harley’s contract), they have fewer NMC/NTCs, and their good contract percentage is just as efficient as it was last year. Where Dallas really excels is with their quality of core, as they do not have a single player locked up for at least four years who isn’t considered elite. Admittedly, that core is just Roope Hintz and Miro Heiskanen, and that’s also largely thanks to Tyler Seguin no longer qualifying for this category, but it shows that they are at least smart enough to not throw around term anymore unless it’s to a top-end player. Even with Harley’s contract status up in the air, he is also considered to be elite by my model, so his new contract will make no impact on their quality of core.

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