LAST SEASON

The Nashville Predators were the talk of the summer in 2024 after committing $108.5 million to Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault and Brady Skjei. While some bought the hype a bit too much and expected them to take the next step from mediocrity for the first time since 2018, the more realistic expectations was that they would at least maintain their current form.

But, the Preds couldn’t even manage that. They lost their first five games, seven of their first 10 games, 13 of their first 18 games, and eventually 22 of their first 29 games, and were already out of the playoff hunt by early December. Even as they regained some form and strung some wins together, every four or five-game winning streak was closely followed by a four or five-game losing streak. When it was all said and done, the Predators were 30-44-8 on the season, and had the third-worst record in the league, only better than the perpetual basement dwellers that are the Chicago Blackhawks and the San Jose Sharks.

Now the Predators find themselves in one of the worst spots in the league. The average age of their NHL players locked up beyond the next season is 31.71, with those seven players taking up 53.72% of their salary cap this season. Last season helped them improve their prospect pool in a big way, but this is still a team committed to an older core that has already established that they aren’t playoff caliber.

This summer, there wasn’t quite as big of a shakeup. General manager Barry Trotz did still commit $22 million to Nicolas Hague after a trade with the Vegas Golden Knights that sent Colton Sissons and Jeremy Lauzon the other way, and then also acquired Erik Haula from the New Jersey Devils and signed Nick Perbix, but the same core is still intact. Does this Predators core have any life left in them, or is last year the start of a long and painful period at the bottom of the standings until the waste clears out.

KEY ADDITIONS AND DEPARTURES

Additions

Nick Perbix, D
Nicolas Hague, D
Erik Haula, C
Dylan Gambrell, C (PTO)

Departures

Colton Sissons, C (VGK)
Jeremy Lauzon, D (VGK)
Marc Del Gaizo, D (MTL)
Kieffer Bellows, LW (UFA)
Jakub Vrana, W (UFA)

OFFENSE

The Predators’ offense was a major disappointment in 2024-25, sitting 31st in goals for per game (2.59). They did see improvement both on the power play (18th in power play percentage at 21.9%) and in their chance generation (19th in 5v5 expected goals for per 60 minutes with 2.49), but considering all of the money they had spent in the summer for two players with a reputation for scoring goals, they shouldn’t have struggled at putting the puck in the net nearly as much as they did.

But when Stamkos has his worst output (53 points in 82 games) in a healthy season since his rookie season, and Marchessault has his worst (56 in 78) since getting bottom-six minutes with the Tampa Bay Lightning, this is the result you should expect. Not surprisingly, this group was last in the league in shooting percentage at 8.86%.

Marchessault and Stamkos weren’t the only disappointments on the team. Ryan O’Reilly dropped from 69 to 53 points, Roman Josi from 85 to 38 (albeit in 53 games, but even in 82 games, he had just 58 points), and Skjei from 47 to 33. Even Filip Forsberg, who far outscored the rest of the team with 76 points, saw his total drop from 94 last season. This is the offensive core of the team, and if they continue to see their outputs step back, I wouldn’t anticipate a lot of improvement from this group. The potential is there, but it’s not much at their respective ages.

If that group can’t step their game up, there really isn’t much of a support network beyond them. The most productive players beyond those six players on the Preds’ roster consist of Michael Bunting and Luke Evangelista. Bunting certainly has the forechecking style that Nashville loves, but he excels next to elite talent as seen from his days with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Evangelista hasn’t topped 40 points in his three NHL seasons, but is actually third among their forwards in 5v5 primary points per 60 over the past three seasons (1.49), and could become a great secondary option in an elevated role. Alas, he doesn’t have a contract right now, so that should tell us exactly what Nashville sees in him.

Zachary L’Heureux provides the Predators with another decent option that can at least drive play offensively (0.05 5v5 regularized-adjusted plus-minus xGF/60 in 2024-25), but it’s actually his production that is the weakest part of his offensive game at this point. But at 22, there’s still some room for improvement though.

On the back end, there aren’t any better options. Nick Perbix has some solid scoring rates (0.67 5v5 primary points per 60), but has never topped 24 points. Otherwise, the Preds’ blueliners don’t have a highly productive resume up to this point.

But it all comes back to this: Nashville needs to see improvement from its top dogs. They’re the ones being paid to produce, and they didn’t last year. If they still can’t this season, expect a similar result, and there should be a lot more concern for the future of this group.

DEFENSE

The Predators’ defensive play was quite similar to the offensive side of the puck last season. Their ability to simply keep the puck out of the net was an issue, as they ranked 27th in goals against per game (3.34), but both their special teams (7th ranked penalty kill percentage at 81.5%) and their chance suppression (tied for 17th in 5v5 expected goals against per 60 with 2.54) indicated that things weren’t as bad as they seemed to be. But it still wasn’t perfect, and they hope that it can improve this season.

While Nashville did lose a bit of that chance suppression ability on the back end by moving on from Lauzon (-0.032 5v5 RAPM xGA/60 in the past three seasons), Perbix (-0.005) and Hague (0) are good but not great options as a replacement. At the very least, Perbix has experience in a top-four role with Tampa Bay, while Hague generally played in a sheltered role on the bottom pair. Why they didn’t just keep Lauzon is a mystery, but it seems that Trotz and co. were betting on Hague taking a step forward.

However, Perbix and Hague’s barely above-average defensive play will be put under the microscope with their partners in the top four, because Josi (0.021 5v5 RAPM xGA/60) and Skjei (0.044) aren’t very good in that department. Both are better known for their offensive game and puck-moving ability and have thrived best with a shutdown defenseman stapled to them.

Josi has at least had stretches in his career with a solid defensive game, but he took a significant step back last season (0.045 5v5 RAPM xGA/60), and comes with questions about what his game will look like after his postural tachycardia syndrome diagnosis. At the very least, he’s expected to be healthy to start the season.

Adam Wilsby (-0.216 5v5 RAPM xGA/60 last season) and Nick Blankenburg (-0.043 5v5 RAPM xGA/60 in the past three seasons) are projected to make up Nashville’s bottom pair, and yet they may actually be their best defensive options aside from Perbix. Both have very limited resumes at just 23 and 115 career games, so it’s easier said than done to elevate their roles and play them against tougher competition. But it still may be a better option than the ones that we know will struggle. Wilsby in particular is an interesting option, as his RAPM xGA/60 was 11th among defenders last season, ahead of names like Ryan McDonagh and Jaccob Slavin.

At the very least, the Predators have plenty of quality defensive forwards up front to make up for it. It doesn’t come in the form of their big guns in Forsberg (0.058 5v5 RAPM xGA/60 in the past three seasons), Stamkos (0.06) and Marchessault (0.012), but O’Reilly (-0.036) is a Selke winner, Haula (-0.071) and Cole Smith (-0.116) have proven to be a strong defenders throughout their careers, and they have several younger options like Evangelista (-0.035) and L’Heureux (-0.071) that have promising underlying numbers so far in their careers.

Yes, that’s correct. The Predators have a forward group that can’t score but defends well, and a blueline that can’t defend but excels at moving the puck and generating offense. That probably sums up the current state of this team to a tee.

GOALTENDING

One of the Predators’ biggest problems with keeping the puck out of their net was that their goalies underperformed, as they had the fourth-worst team save percentage at .884. The burden mostly falls on Juuse Saros, who started the fifth-most games last season but had just an .896 SV% and a -13.53 5v5 goals saved above expected, the latter stat being the third-worst among any goalie last season. He wasn’t just the victim of a poor Nashville team in front of him; he was one of the driving factors for their poor play.

Just two years ago, Saros was considered a top-five goaltender in the league. But now 30 years old and coming off of poor performances last season and in 2023-24 (.906 SV%, 1.42 5v5 GSAx), that status is in doubt. That comes just in time for his eight-year extension at a $7.74 million AAV to kick in. Nashville will really have to hope he bounces back; otherwise, extending Saros and dealing Yaroslav Askarov may just be their biggest blunder in the past year.

Speaking of moves the Preds regret, their backup option wasn’t much of an improvement last season. Justus Annunen had an .888 SV% and a -4.79 5v5 GSAx in 23 games after they acquired him from the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for Scott Wedgewood, and considering Wedgewood’s performance on the year (.908 SV%, 5.42 5v5 GSAx), they could probably have used that for some more stability behind Saros. At least Annunen comes with some upside at only 24.

COACHING

If there’s one benefit to having a former head coach as a general manager, it’s that he understands that tough stretches shouldn’t always fall on the coach. That probably saved Andrew Brunette’s job with the Predators, as the slow start in 2024-25 had many wondering if he was on the hot seat. Considering that they still had solid underlying numbers on the year, it’s hard to pin last year’s performance on Brunette.

However, as Brunette enters his third season behind the bench, the seat will get a little bit warmer if the Preds can’t at least get back in the playoff conversation. This situation is more on Trotz than it is on Brunette, but as understanding as the former head coach can be, it’s hard to see him getting fired first considering both his legacy and his higher standing in the organization.

ROOKIES

Right now, Daily Faceoff projects Matthew Wood to be their lone rookie that starts the season with the Predators. He had a solid six-game stint with the team after finishing his season with the University of Minnesota, but he could maybe use a little bit more seasoning in the AHL before being a mainstay in Nashville’s lineup.

There are plenty of other options that could potentially crack the NHL at some point this season, most notably David Edstrom up front and Tanner Molendyk on the back end. Like Wood, both could still use some time in the AHL, but if they have a strong enough start and injuries plague the Predators, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them get some games in at some point during the season.

The biggest question may be how much their recent fifth-overall pick in Brady Martin impresses in training camp. He certainly has the frame and work ethic to hold his own in the NHL. But is the rest of his game up to speed? It’s certainly possible, but he may still benefit from another season in the OHL.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. What becomes of this overpriced core? Nashville spent a ton of money last summer to bring in Stamkos, Marchessault and Skjei, and failed miserably last season. But the underlying numbers indicated that this team may actually be closer to a playoff team than their record indicated. This season may be the true indication of the future of this franchise, as we’ll see if they can hover around mediocrity as usual, or if this core has aged past their prime and a rebuild is needed.

2. Is Josi still a Norris-calibre defenseman? Josi has been one of the league’s best defensemen for the better part of 10 years now, but last season saw two changes. First, he had one of his weakest seasons in years. Second, he was diagnosed with POTS. Suddenly, that elite play that he’s so consistently achieved may be too high to expect from him, especially at 35. If he struggles further, the team doesn’t really have a replacement in the system.

3. How long is Trotz’s leash? The Predators had just one general manager in the history of their franchise before David Poile retired and announced Trotz (who spent the franchise’s first 15 seasons as head coach) as his replacement. Nashville has never been one to be trigger-happy with firing coaches and general managers, but it really feels like Trotz has the anti-Midas touch as a GM: everything he does is at best questionable and at worst bad. The Predators have always seemed to be content with mediocrity, but if Trotz keeps sinking the team, will they be quick to let him go? Or will his legacy with the franchise keep him around longer than he should be?

PREDICTION

Nashville’s 2024-25 season was a nightmare, worst-case scenario going into the year, and yet it happened with such ease that it’s hard to see them ever getting close to the best-case scenario. But there are enough variables in play that they could at least improve upon third-last in the league.

When your supposed six best offensive weapons all take steps back and your supposed elite goaltender had his worst season as a full-time starter, regression should be expected. But when a majority of those players are in their 30s, who’s to say that isn’t the new norm?

If the Predators are able to continue to generate or suppress chances at the level they did last year, they shouldn’t be nearly as bad. But even then, it’s hard to look at last season and say they have a strong chance of contending for the playoffs. Maybe they hang around early in the season, but they’ll likely slip as the season goes along. Not enough to finish as low as they did last season, but enough that they’ll comfortably miss.

All advanced stats come courtesy of Evolving Hockey.

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