Jersey with an X = player has not yet selected 2025-26 number, per New York Islanders

LAST SEASON

While the New York Islanders had made the playoffs in five of their last six seasons, it was very apparent that they were on the decline. After back-to-back appearances in the third round, they had missed the playoffs in 2021-22, and then lost in six and five games to the Carolina Hurricanes in the 2023 and 2024 playoffs. However, with Lou Lamoriello at the helm, there was no way that the Isles were going to start a rebuild. So, they entered the 2024-25 season with the same aging, middling core, minus Cal Clutterbuck and plus Anthony Duclair.

But the universe had other plans. Injuries to key players like Scott Mayfield, Alexander Romanov, Adam Pelech, Duclair and most notably Mathew Barzal (who played just 30 games), battered down an already mediocre Islanders lineup, and they never really found a consistent footing. While never far out of the playoff race, they were never truly in it either.

It took New York all the way until back-to-back losses to the Toronto Maple Leafs at the turn of the new year for them to have a record of two games above or below .500, and unfortunately, it was below. A seven-game winning streak in late January was the closest they got to a playoff spot, but even then, they were still a few points out. They went 4-6-0 from that point to the Trade Deadline, and it was clear that they needed to sell.

But the big question was: would Lamoriello actually sell? There was plenty of doubt surrounding that, but he managed to move the Isles’ big fish in Brock Nelson, netting quite the haul in return. The Islanders went 7-9-5 for the rest of the season, finishing with a 35-35-12 record, 10th-worst in the league. That may have been disappointing for rebuilding proponents at the time, but it worked out perfectly for New York, as they won the draft lottery.

Suddenly, the Isles’ outlook completely changed. Getting the first-overall pick was a perfect start to a rebuild, or at the very least, a retool. Lamoriello’s contract wasn’t renewed, and Mathieu Darche was named general manager in his place to change up the organizational outlook. Additionally, high-scoring blueliner Noah Dobson was dealt at the draft, now that Matthew Schaefer ready to take his place.

But as the 2025-26 season begins, what’s in store for the Islanders? Was this summer a rapid retool as they look to keep this group intact, or are they truly in the first season of a proper rebuild with Schaefer at the forefront?

KEY ADDITIONS & SUBTRACTIONS

Additions

Matthew Schaefer, D
Jonathan Drouin, LW
David Rittich, G
Emil Heineman, LW
Maxim Shabanov, RW
Matthew Highmore, LW

Departures

Noah Dobson, D (Mtl)
Matt Martin, LW (retired)
Scott Perunovich, D (Uta)
Mike Reilly, D (Car)
Hudson Fasching, W (CBJ)
Grant Hutton, D (UFA)

OFFENSE

The Islanders’ offense was non-existent last season, as they were tied for 27th in the league with 2.71 goals for per game, and clicked at an abysmal 12.6% on the power play, which was 31st. They were better with their expected goals (tied for 16th in 5v5 xG for per 60 minutes with 2.59), but the team didn’t have the health or the finishing talent to support that, sitting 21st in 5v5 shooting percentage (8.58%).

Barzal is the face of this Islanders’ offense, but he was also the face of their struggles last season, as he was both injured (missed 52 games) and couldn’t finish (7.69% SH% compared to a 10.53% career rate). His smooth skating and elite playmaking ability (sixth in 5v5 primary assists per 60) stand out on this aging Islanders’ team, and they’ll need him healthy and at his best if they want to contend for the playoffs this season.

Also down the middle is Bo Horvat, who is probably the only other consistent high-end producer remaining on this team. He was the Islanders’ leading scorer last season, although that’s not a compliment, as only the Anaheim Ducks had a leading scorer with fewer points than Horvat’s 57.

Flanking the two centermen in the top six will likely be the newly acquired Jonathan Drouin, the youthful Simon Holmstrom, and veterans Anders Lee and Kyle Palmieri. Drouin had a revival with the Colorado Avalanche (93 points in 122 games), but after spending more than half his time there with Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, Drouin will need to prove he can produce like that away from elite talent. The 23-year-old Holmstrom will look to build off a breakout season last year (20 goals & 45 points), while the 35-year-old Lee will hope that he can build off his most productive season (29 & 54) since he was playing on John Tavares’ wing. And then there’s the consistent Palmieri, who’s hovered at a 0.62 point-per-game clip over the last few seasons.

Still, between the four of them, they have one 60+ point season in their careers. That’s not the kind of top six you want if you plan to improve off a dismal performance last season. Anthony Duclair is also a decent scoring option further down the depth chart, but his career high is also only 58 points. At the very least, he, Jean-Gabriel Pageau (42 points last season) and Maxim Shabanov (67 points in 65 games in the KHL) make for an intriguing projected third line. Not necessarily threatening, but intriguing.

The fourth line will also be an interesting combination, but for their defensive ability. Maxim Tsyplakov (-0.122 5v5 regularized adjusted plus-minus expected goals against per 60 minutes) and newcomer Emil Heineman (-0.246) have played some excellent defense in recent years, and Casey Cizikas (-0.069) is still no slouch at 33. Despite his outlandish contract, Pierre Engvall (-0.085) is another solid option for that role.

With Dobson off to the Montreal Canadiens, the door is wide open for rookie Schaefer to quarterback the power play, as his only other competition amongst Islanders’ blueliners is Tony DeAngelo, who held that role last season while Dobson was injured. Beyond them, the only other productive blueliner for New York is depth defenseman Adam Boqvist (0.96 5v5 points/60 in the last three seasons). The rest of the Isles’ defense corps is more proficient in its own end.

DEFENSE

The Islanders’ defensive game hasn’t really recovered since Barry Trotz’s firing three years ago, as it was on the bad side of mediocre in 2024-25 under Patrick Roy. They were 20th in goals against per game (3.13), tied for 20th in 5v5 GA/60 (2.58), and 31st in penalty kill percentage (72.2%).

Whether it’s the changing systems or just life in their 30s, the defensemen that remain from that past elite defensive structure just aren’t what they used to be. Only Pelech remains an elite defensive option, as his -0.243 5v5 RAPM xGA/60 is first among defensemen in the last three seasons. Scott Mayfield’s play (-0.073) is still solid, while Ryan Pulock, once one of the top defensemen in the league, has seen his game fall off a cliff (0.049).

DeAngelo and Romanov will make up the rest of New York’s locks in the top six. DeAngelo’s offensive talents are high-end (31st among defenders in the last three seasons with 1.54 P/60 and 37th with 0.098 5v5 RAPM xGF/60), but his horrid defensive game (0.286 5v5 RAPM xGA/60, fifth worst) and loud off-ice personality are why he’s bounced from team to team over the last several seasons and generally played in sheltered minutes.

Romanov may start off the season in a prime role with the Islanders, as they’ll look to make the most of his surprising eight-year extension. He isn’t a bad defenseman by any means, but he also isn’t really good at any specific skill set, so to lock him up to full term was questionable.

Beyond that group, Schaefer is the frontrunner for the final spot on New York’s blueline, but it’s far from a guarantee, even for a first-overall pick. If not him, Boqvist and Isaiah George may be on deck for that spot. They will at least give the Islanders some versatility, as Boqvist is a puck-mover and producer with a poor defensive game, while George is solid defensively but doesn’t contribute too much offensively.

Up front, the aforementioned fourth line of Cizikas, Heineman and Tsyplakov, along with Engvall, bring a solid defensive game to the table, but the options are bare beyond that. Lee (-0.036 5v5 RAPM xGA/60 in the last three seasons) and Pageau (-0.017) are their most consistent defensive options. Barzal’s two-way game saw significant improvement last season (-1.92), but prior to 2024-25, he has struggled in his own end (0.044).

GOALTENDING

At his best, Ilya Sorokin is one of the best goaltenders in the league, if not the best. From 2020-21 to 2022-23, he ranked second in save percentage (.924) and was first in 5v5 goals saved above expected (54.55). But in the last two seasons, his play has dipped a bit. While his .908 SV% (14th) and 25.54 5v5 GSAx (eighth) are still strong for a consistent starter, the Islanders have needed him at his best in order to make the playoffs in the post-Trotz era. If Sorokin is now just great instead of elite, Long Island will likely be without playoff action again this season.

Semyon Varlamov is usually the other option in the crease for the Isles, but he hasn’t played a game since Nov. 29, 2024 due to a knee injury, and his status for this season is uncertain. New York added David Rittich to give them at least one veteran option for this season, although he struggled in 2024-25 behind the Los Angeles Kings (one of the league’s best defensive systems) with an .887 SV% and a -1.61 5v5 GSAx.

Marcus Hogberg (.883 SV%, -1.27 5v5 GSAx) is another option in the Islanders’ system after getting into 15 games last season, but not exactly a better one. Varlamov is the best option of the three on paper, but who knows what to expect from his game after being injured for almost a year.

COACHING

This season will be Roy’s third behind the bench with the Islanders after replacing Lane Lambert mid-season in 2023-24, but it’s tough to get a read on how hot his seat is right now. Darche elected to keep Roy after taking over the team, but does that mean that Roy has a long leash? He’s been mediocre so far during his tenure with a 55-47-17 record and a 50.6 5v5 xG%, but certainly not bad enough to be fired. It feels like a bigger factor for how long he sticks around will be whether New York is expecting to be bad over the next few seasons, and if they like Roy being the teacher during a rebuild.

More importantly, the Isles have changed up their assistant coaches for the season after the horrendous special teams performance last season. While Benoit Desrosiers will stick around, John MacLean and Tommy Albelin will not be back to oversee the power play and penalty kill, with Ray Bennett and Bob Boughner taking their places. It will hopefully be a fresh perspective for both special teams units, but New York still needs strong personnel if they want to see significant improvement.

ROOKIES

Between the Nelson & Dobson trades and winning the draft lottery, the Islanders have overhauled their prospect system overnight with Schaefer, Cal Ritchie, Viktor Eklund and Kashawn Aitcheson, as well as Cole Eiserman from the 2024 Draft. That said, don’t expect them all to make the NHL right away. Schaefer and Ritchie will likely be the only ones with a strong chance of cracking the roster out of camp.

Schaefer’s talent and pedigree will be the driving forces for him making the team, but after a broken collarbone kept him to only 19 games last season between the OHL and the World Juniors, it may be better for his development to give him another year in junior, unless he blows the Isles away. A nine-game stint to start the season is a likely option though. Ritchie managed to do the same last season on a much stronger Avalanche squad, so it’s pretty easy to see him making this Islanders’ team out of camp as well.

Beyond that, there aren’t a lot of players who are ready right this instant. Perhaps some sneak in due to injuries or any trades (should the Islanders be a seller this year). Maybe Eiserman and Danny Nelson get a trial when their college seasons wrap up (if New York is out of the playoff race). But, the likely players to have a big impact on the year will be Schaefer and Ritchie.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. Will the Islanders commit to a rebuild with Lamoriello finally gone? A retool or a proper rebuild made sense to just about everyone for the past few years, except for the octogenarian running the Islanders. But with Nelson & Dobson already dealt and a fresh face taking over as GM in Darche, we may begin to see this aging core stripped apart. That said, they also could have moved on from Palmieri this summer, but they instead signed him for two more years. Lee, Pageau, DeAngelo and Rittich are the lone pending unrestricted free agents this season, with Palmieri, Drouin, Cizikas and Tsyplakov up the following year, so there’s plenty of trade candidates. Only time will tell what the game plan is in Long Island.

2. What can we expect from Schaefer? The Islander’s recent first-overall pick was the team’s first since selecting Tavares in 2009, so fans are naturally excited to see what they’ll get out of him this season. But 2025 was one of the weaker drafts in years, and Schaefer is coming off his collarbone injury. He has the talent to blow the doors off right out of the gate, but fans of the blue and orange shouldn’t be disappointed if he doesn’t play in the NHL this season. They only need to look back four years to find the last time that happened with Owen Power and the Buffalo Sabres, and he’s turned out just fine there.

3. How healthy will Barzal be this season? With Nelson and Dobson gone, the crux of the Islanders’ offense solely rests on the shoulders of Barzal and Horvat until their prospect pool develops. That much was clear last season with Barzal missing so much time, so any hopes of New York getting more goals this season depends on how healthy Barzal is. He’s ready to return, but his comments at the Media Tour last week don’t inspire confidence that he’s fully healthy either.

PREDICTION

Is there a conceivable world where the Islanders make the playoffs? Sure. After all, we’ve seen in 2022-23 and 2023-24 that all they need is an elite season from Sorokin, and they’re in the conversation. But their mediocre defense will take a slight step back with Dobson gone (at least while Schaefer gets acclimated to the NHL), and their offense hasn’t exactly improved either, outside of (hopefully) more games from Barzal this year. Even just a great performance from Sorokin won’t get the job done with this group.

Ultimately, it feels like the Islanders’ best-case scenario is flirting with playoff contention but ultimately stuttering down the stretch and missing, while their worst case scenario will see them fail to be in the conversation at all. Unless Sorokin is flawless, or Schaefer is just that good right out of the gate, be bearish on this team.

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