LAST SEASON

Optimism was in short supply for the St. Louis Blues ahead of the 2024-25 season. An ambitious double offer sheet got the Blue Notes a well-needed injection of youth in the form of former Edmonton Oilers Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg, but an otherwise mismatched roster had failed to recapture the dizzying heights of their 2019 Stanley Cup triumph.

After a quick start, the Blues looked more sluggish than ever amid a nasty 4-9-1 slump. Erstwhile head coach Drew Bannister might have weathered the storm had Jim Montgomery not become available on Nov. 19, when the Bruins shockingly showed him the door. Montgomery led the B’s to the best regular finish in NHL history in 2022-23, but only after his coaching career was resurrected as an assistant to Craig Berube for two seasons in St. Louis. For team president Doug Armstrong, bringing ‘Monty’ home five days after he hit the market was no decision at all.

What followed was an in-season turnaround that felt an awful lot like the worst-to-first magic of 2019. It didn’t happen overnight. In fact, Monty’s Blues were still below “hockey .500” when the season broke for the 4 Nations Face-Off. Just two Blues, Colton Parayko and Jordan Binnington, represented their country at that tournament. The rest, it would seem, were busy taking Montgomery’s lessons to heart.

Led by stud center Robert Thomas (league-leading 40 P in final 26 GP) and the veteran top pair of Parayko and Cam Fowler, St. Louis played at a sizzling 129-point pace over its final 26 to charge into the playoffs. The Blues’ postseason heartache (they were just 1.6 seconds from ousting the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets) hasn’t led to a gloomy summer. They’re wondering if that late-season outburst is just the tip of the iceberg. Cynics, meanwhile, are wondering if a heater like that is sustainable.

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions

Nick Bjugstad, C
Logan Mailloux, D
Pius Suter, C
Milan Lucic, LW (PTO)

Departures

Zack Bolduc, RW (MTL)
Ryan Suter, D (UFA)
Radek Faksa, C (DAL)
Nick Leddy, D (SJ)

OFFENSE

Thomas has been the Blues’ steadiest producer since his breakout campaign four years ago. It’s a surprise, then, that despite his second-half tear and career-best scoring pace (81 P in 70 GP), the club wasn’t as solely reliant on the two-way playmaker’s offense as in past seasons. St. Louis boasted five other 45-point scorers, its most since a 109-point finish in 2021-22, and a top-six revelation in Holloway.

Holloway’s combination of acceleration, toughness (165 hits), and production (26 G, 63 P in 77 GP) finally gave Kyrou, the team’s top sniper (36 G), a worthy foil on the rush. Montgomery slotted grizzled captain Brayden Schenn between the speedy wingers with glowing results from December on as St. Louis’s second line blew the opposition away by a game score of 29-13. Unless the 34-year-old Schenn’s production (18 G, 50 P) falls off a cliff, this will be the first unit penciled into the lineup card.

Ironically, Thomas’ top line is a little more opaque as the season approaches. Well-rounded Russian Pavel Buchnevich is a lock to flank Thomas, but Buchnevich’s new $8-million AAV contract will get some sideways glances if his production more resembles that of the last two seasons (25 G, 63 P per 82 GP) than his soaring start in St. Louis (56 G, 143 P in 136 GP). Rookie Jimmy Snuggerud did not look out of place when Montgomery dropped him onto the line’s right wing immediately after Snuggerud’s collegiate career ended. If Snuggerud has some growing pains during a longer look in the show, puckhound Jake Neighbours (25 G per 82 GP since 2023) provides a high-floor safety blanket.

Whether or not Neighbours slides down the lineup, the Blues already look significantly stronger in the bottom six. Pius Suter added 25-goal upside to his cerebral two-way game during his last season in Vancouver before joining St. Louis on a peach of a two-year contract (two years, $4.5 million AAV). Fellow free agent acquisition Nick Bjugstad is a strong bounce-back candidate after offseason back surgery and career-low ice time (12:19) cratered his scoring totals in Utah last season (19 P, down from 45 in 2023-24).

On the blueline, Parayko outshooting Cale Makar (12.8 S%, 16 G in 64 GP) will not become the new norm. The veteran’s offensive breakout was nonetheless encouraging, even if Fowler, who tied Parayko for the team lead in scoring among defenders (36 P) in just 51 games, is a better bet to stay hot.

DEFENSE

It’s a shame Fowler, 33, and Parayko, 32, didn’t find each other a few years earlier. The duo’s chemistry after Fowler’s trade from Anaheim in December was one of the main reasons the Blues turned their season around. Where Nick Leddy had struggled to turn his smooth skating into chances when paired with Parayko in previous years, Fowler’s ability both to find stretch passes and join the rush as a shooting threat was critical to St. Louis’s dangerous transition game.

On the other side of the equation, Parayko’s elite recovery speed, shot blocking, and puck retrievals gave Fowler both more time on the puck and less defensive responsibility than he had while logging huge minutes for the listless Ducks. Fowler and Parayko only played together 34 times after the trade due to the latter’s knee scope in March, but they posted the third-best on-ice goal share of any pair to skate at least 480 minutes at even-strength (63.27%). Strong accompanying metrics and an equally impressive postseason showing (combined +6, 56.16 expected-goal share) should make Montgomery’s decision to run it back on the top pair that much easier.

Fowler’s success at the top of the lineup and Holloway’s emergence in the forward group both overshadowed Broberg, who nonetheless looked exceptionally mature in the top-four minutes (20:30 ATOI) that always eluded him in Edmonton. Even if Broberg’s glistening +26 rating benefited the fifth-highest on-ice SV% in the NHL (min. 1,000 minutes), his comfort on the puck (8 G, 29 P in 68 GP) and speed without it made him a two-way standout in his first real NHL opportunity.

The Blues went shopping for another toolsy, first-round defenseman this offseason in Logan Mailloux. Armstrong sent fan favorite winger Zack Bolduc to Montreal for Mailloux, who will start the season beneath Parayko and Justin Faulk on the right side. As eager as St. Louis fans will be to “win” the trade (and as fed up as they are with Faulk’s turnovers), Montgomery will likely ease Mailloux into action with sheltered minutes behind two players that combine for more than 1,700 games of NHL experience.

Despite posting the sixth-best defensive record after their coaching change, that experience wasn’t apparent for St. Louis on the PK (74.2%, fifth-worst). Montgomery will be especially motivated to fix the Blues’ leaky kill and struggles at 6-on-5 after the Winnipeg debacle.

GOALTENDING

Jordan Binnington’s performance at the 4 Nations was a microcosm of his career. He wasn’t perfect, even if his brief stint as Canada’s national whipping boy was misguided. When the chips were down, though, Binnington outdueled the best goalie in the world, American Connor Hellebuyck, and stoned Team USA studs Brady Tkachuk and Auston Matthews in overtime of the gold-medal game. That’s Binnington for you, a goalie whose intense temperament leads both to lapses in concentration and stretches of game-stealing brilliance.

Though ‘Binner’ let some inconsistency creep back into his game last year after an unusually locked-in regular season in 2023-24 (2.84 GAA, .913 SV%), the good once again outweighed the bad as the veteran posted the second-best quality start % (.574) since his historic rookie season. Binnington’s skating and puckhandling were well suited to Montgomery’s focus on spending less time pinned back in the zone.

Backup Joel Hofer is a more prototypical modern goalie, utilizing a 6-foot-5 frame and solid positioning to create as many easy stops as possible. Making big-league money ($3.4 million AAV through 2027) for the first time after proving himself a reliable option (2.65 GAA, .909 SV% %, .618 QS%) over the past two seasons, the 25-year-old is a candidate to build on his career-high 31-game workload if Binnington gets eased back into action after the Olympics.

COACHING

The “new coach bump” is often accompanied by deceiving results. No team wins 19 of 26, for instance, without a few bounces (more on those later) and a lot of adrenaline. Still, it’s not as though there were no gaps in Montgomery’s lucky streak; he had to deploy the since-waived Leddy on his off side for a crucial stretch while Parayko was out and lost Holloway to a torn oblique just in time for the postseason.

Monty is a players’ coach who pushes all the right buttons in the locker room, which includes several holdovers from his last stint in town. That much was clear in his club’s energy levels after the coaching switch. The timing of the Blues’ late-season push, right after Montgomery had a few weeks to work on the roster uninterrupted by games or travel, should have fans and players alike excited for a full offseason with the former Jack Adams Award winner at the wheel.

Longtime NHL grinder Steve Ott is St. Louis’s associate head coach and resident faceoff expert, which will be significant for Suter (46 career FO%) in particular. Fellow assistants Mike Weber, another former pro who runs the PK, and 667-game winner Claude Julien will join Montgomery and Ott behind the bench.

ROOKIES

Snuggerud’s decision to play a third collegiate season with the Minnesota Golden Gophers created some fear that the 2022 first-round pick would never sign in St. Louis. Instead, the long wait meant he hit the scene at 21 as a fully formed prospect with an NHL-level shot. After bulking up to 197 pounds over the offseason, Snuggerud looks even more ready to battle in the corners. That compete level will be important for a prospect who might never skate at an elite level. Snuggerud nonetheless looked comfortable in 14 combined playoff and regular-season games (3 G, 8 P), mostly opposite Buchnevich on the top line (16:17 ATOI).

Dalibor Dvorsky is also a big kid at 6-foot-1 and 201 pounds and could have an even higher ceiling as a natural center with exceptional passing vision. Dvorsky acquitted himself well for the AHL Springfield Thunderbirds as a 19-year-old (21 G, 45 P in 61 GP) and even earned a two-game cameo in the show. The organization’s top brass would still like to see the Slovak become more assertive, and the Blues’ improved options at center may mean Dvorsky will spend most of his time in Springfield once again this year as he continues to grow into his game. Otto Stenberg went 13 picks after Dvorsky in 2023, but is a bit further away from cracking an NHL lineup that may not even have room for more seasoned wingers like Mathieu Joseph and Alexandre Texier.

On the back end, the rookie to watch is Mailloux, already St. Louis’s best defensive prospect according to Daily Faceoff scouting guru Steven Ellis. Mailloux skates like the wind and can wire the puck (he already has three goals in just eight NHL appearances), but he looked a bit lost defensively for Montreal last season (-5 in 7 GP). He won’t likely break camp with a veteran defense partner, either; hard-hitting lefty Tyler Tucker has only appeared in 90 games himself.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. Was the Blues’ puck luck a red flag? The Blues were the second-best 5-on-5 team in the NHL during Monty’s 60 games in charge, outscoring the opposition 137-94. Their attention to detail in that phase of the game would have been excellent (112.51 expected goals against, fourth-fewest) even without stellar goaltending (.926 SV%, second-best). The team’s league-leading PDO (S% + SV%) during Montgomery’s tenure should scare the coaching staff on offense. Despite finishing fourth in goals and third in shooting (10.65%), St. Louis ranked in the bottom six of expected goals and high-danger chances at 5-on-5. A return to form from Buchnevich, a strong debut by Snuggerud and continued efficient scoring by Neighbours and Suter will all be critical for avoiding a scoring drop-off.

2. What’s the ceiling for a “retool?” Armstrong traded Ryan O’Reilly, Ivan Barbashev, and Vladimir Tarasenko during their walk years in 2023 but otherwise was adamant that the Blues’ roster could still work out. Armstrong may have been right all along. ‘Army has wriggled out from under more than $14 million in problem contracts (Saad, Krug), and the offer sheets coupled with deft drafting have given St. Louis’s future outlook a shot in the arm. When Armstrong hands the GM ball off to Alex Steen in about eight months, Steen will inherit an intriguing mix of veterans, primed contributors, and young talent. Not bad for a team that looked dead in the water two summers ago, but do the Blues have enough high-end talent beyond Thomas to win another Cup?

3. How much game does Brayden Schenn have left? Schenn’s standing in the organization and the city are worth a good chunk of his $6.5-million AAV contract, and his playmaking was a big help for Holloway and Kyrou during his seventh 30-assist season. It’s good that Schenn can still pick a pass, because his days as a power-play demon looked numbered. He notched just two goals on the man advantage, his fewest ever in a full season, and 18 goals overall, his worst pace since his sophomore season in Philadelphia. Schenn’s rough postseason (2 G, 3 P, -5) without Holloway raises questions about how he’ll age over the next three seasons; the hope is that he and Suter can hold down the middle-six center spots until Dvorsky is ready.

PREDICTION

The Blues needed a remarkable 12-game win streak to make it to the postseason and looked better over the final 26 games than they had since at least 2022. Skeptics think it was all, to paraphrase Trainspotting, a blip on an otherwise downward trajectory. That assumes regression from at least Thomas, Fowler, and Parayko, all of whom played 70 games or fewer for St. Louis last season. It also assumes stagnation for Holloway, Broberg, Neighbours, and others.

There are more points to be had in the Central Division than most think: the Avalanche are star-studded but injury-prone, the Jets are a near-perfect regression candidate, and the Stars lost most of their depth during the offseason. After a full offseason with Montgomery and with leftover momentum to burn from last year, the Blues are the best bet to upset a top three that’s been unchanged for two years.

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