What a difference a year can make.

Just ask Brad Marchand. In February, he was captain of a struggling Boston Bruins team. Largely detested. Often suspended. Marchand’s relevance was fading fast. What came next, however, was a career-defining stretch. First, he took a leadership role in Canada’s thrilling 4 Nations Face-Off victory. Next, a shocking trade to the Florida Panthers led to a resurgence. Ten goals in a dazzling postseason performance, a second Stanley Cup ring, and a six-year contract extension soon followed. From outcast to Hall of Fame lock.

Hall of Fame résumés are typically earned methodically over 15 or 20 years. Yet, whether it’s a signature season, capturing elusive team success, or adding a punctuation mark to a brilliant career, one year can meaningfully move a case forward.

With the fresh canvas of a new season ahead, we’re counting down 10 future candidates with a lot on the line in 2025-26. Who could be this year’s Marchand by boosting their path to hockey immortality?

PPS Background

Before we begin the countdown, let’s revisit a key figure that will help guide the debates. It’s been three years since PPS, my comprehensive Hall of Fame metric, went mainstream. In short, a player’s PPS score captures six factors: Career (output), Pace (efficiency), Peak (best seven seasons), plus bonuses for playoff career, international play, and award shares. Every NHL player is put on a level playing field by adjusting for scoring environment, schedule length, and roster size.

PPS sets a standard by position based on the number of Hall of Fame inductees. Here are the PPS post-expansion standards and tiers through the 2024-25 season:

PPS Tier	Forwards	Defensemen	Goaltenders
Inner Circle	319	339	371
Qualified	232	271	308
Borderline Above	217	256	293
STANDARD	217	256	293
Borderline Below	207	246	283
Hall of Very Good	192	231	268

Let’s take a Hall of Fame candidate like Anze Kopitar. With a PPS score of 244, Kopitar is comfortably in the Qualified tier above. An easy call, from a statistical perspective. PPS acts as a strong starting point, limiting subjectivity and reputational bias. But it’s not the Hall of Stats — a player’s off-ice impact and non-NHL career warrant consideration beyond the numbers.

That’s where things get murky… every candidate’s fate is determined in secret by an 18-person Selection Committee. There is no transparency on the nominees or the voting totals. Whatever the Committee privately decides is important could be the deciding factor. It’s why public narratives also matter in Hall of Fame cases — any moment, milestone, or win could influence a Committee member’s decision.

Now, on to the list…

10. Brent Burns, Colorado Avalanche

Age: 40
PPS Score: 273 (+17 vs. Standard)
PPS Tier: Qualified

Why 2025-26 is Important: Entering his 22nd NHL season, Burns is easily qualified for the Hall of Fame. Despite playing in a low-scoring era, he’s 12th all-time in points (910) and ninth in goals (261) by a defenseman. He has a Norris Trophy. He’ll soon be just the eighth defenseman to play 1,500 games. He’s a fun, one-of-a-kind hockey lifer whose bearded, gap-toothed Hall plaque would be sought out by fans. Then why is Burns on the list? In public Hall of Fame polling I conducted on X in June 2025, he received only 21% approval. So, it may take a while for the Selection Committee to reconcile how dominant and enduring Burns’ career has been. What might help? Thirty-eight points moves him into the top 10 at his position. Nine goals ties Bobby Orr for seventh among blueliners. Or how about a walk-off first Stanley Cup at 41? Chills…

9. Claude Giroux, Ottawa Senators

Age: 37
PPS Score: 214 (-4 vs. Standard)
PPS Tier: Borderline Below

Why 2025-26 is Important: Giroux faces an uphill battle to induction. Only 1 in 10 poll respondents voted Yes beside his name. Peak ‘G’ was a force, though, finishing fourth, third, and fourth in Hart voting over a seven-year stretch. For the decade from 2010-11 to 2019-20, Giroux earned the most assists in the NHL — more than Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane, and well, everyone. But Giroux’s Hall case has a few gaps: he’ll retire short of 400 goals (he’s at 365 after a 15-goal year); he got into just one game during Canada’s international best-on-best trifecta of 2010, 2014, and 2017; and despite a few heroic playoff efforts, he remains sans Stanley. Giroux is highly respected — a relentless, gritty underdog who carved an elite career. Could one last run with the pesky Sens both perfectly encapsulate the man and prop up his Hall case?

8. Roman Josi, Nashville Predators

Age: 35
PPS Score: 268 (+12 vs. Standard)
PPS Tier: Borderline Above

Why 2025-26 is Important: Josi has quietly fashioned a Hall-worthy career. A Norris Trophy, including five top-five finishes. A 96-point season. Switzerland’s first NHL superstar. He polled at 35% in June — the highest of anyone on today’s list. If that seems low, fans are famously more exclusive than the Selection Committee, leaning Small Hall when it’s always been a Big Hall. In PPS, Josi (268) is ahead of recent first-ballot contemporaries Duncan Keith (258) and Shea Weber (257). Yes, Josi’s that good. But he was diagnosed with postural tachycardia syndrome (POTS) in June, creating some doubt that his next three contracted years will be played at a high level. With good health, Josi will pass 1,000 games, 200 goals, and 800 points in 2025-26. Despite his qualifications, it’s critical to his career stat line that he recovers on a Preds’ team searching for its soul. At 35, that’s no guarantee.

7. Mikko Rantanen, Dallas Stars

Age: 28
PPS Score: 229 (+11 vs. Standard)
PPS Tier: Borderline Above

Why 2025-26 is Important: It may surprise you that Rantanen needs a big year. Through his age-28 season, he has 294 goals, 705 points, a Stanley Cup, 123 playoff points, and a PPS (229) higher than Corey Perry’s (226). But there were issues under the hood of Rantanen’s 2024-25 season. Most notably, he scored at a 60-point pace after exiting his familiar confines of Colorado. Chalk it up to a chaotic season, maybe. But Rantanen also broke the single-season empty-net point record (16) and tied the empty-net goal record (9) last year. Without those empty calories? An alarming 23-goal, 72-point year. In 20 games in Dallas, Rantanen took only 1.85 shots on goal per game — a 45% drop from his previous full season. A down year by a future Hall of Famer? Signs of decline? A less favorable setting for the next eight years? All of the above?

6. Alex Pietrangelo, Vegas Golden Knights

Age: 35
PPS Score: 255 (-1 vs. Standard)
PPS Tier: Borderline Below

Why 2025-26 is Important: Pietrangelo is an intriguing case. PPS has him 0.6 below the standard, effectively the poster boy of the Hall of Fame borderline. On one hand, he was the #1 defenseman for two different Cup-winning franchises and an important figure for Canada’s 2014 Olympic and 2017 World Cup titles. On the other hand, his 637 career points don’t slap, and peaking at fourth in Norris voting doesn’t scream Hall of Famer. When it was announced Pietrangelo had bilateral femur reconstruction surgery and may never play again, it felt like a career cut short. Not so fast. Last week’s news that he hopes to return — possibly this season — leaves room for an encore. Successfully rehabbing and squeezing out one or two playoff runs on a dangerous Knights’ team could push his candidacy over the line.

5. John Tavares, Toronto Maple Leafs

Age: 35
PPS Score: 245 (+28 vs. Standard)
PPS Tier: Qualified

Why 2025-26 is Important: In January, I waxed poetic on J.T.’s strong Hall of Fame case. He’s since finished a 38-goal season and signed a four-year extension. But there’s this: Tavares polled at 13% in June. That’s an eye-opening level of Hall of Fame disapproval for a player nearing 500 goals, especially one who played his 20s in low-scoring times. But it tells us that Tavares’ Hall of Fame spot is far from secure. Will he need 600 goals or a credible postseason résumé to silence any doubts? Will he have to wait a long time like comparable forwards Jeremy Roenick, Pierre Turgeon, and Daniel Alfredsson? At 35, popping out a few more 30-goal years and playing a prominent role beyond the second round (yes, it exists, Leafs fans) could be the cherry on top of the low-fat, no-sprinkles vanilla sundae that is Tavares’ exceptional career.

4. Mitch Marner, Vegas Golden Knights

Age: 28
PPS Score: 210 (-8 vs. Standard)
PPS Tier: Borderline Below

Why 2025-26 is Important: Marner’s debut in Vegas will be one of the season’s most compelling storylines. Players at the peak of their powers just don’t switch teams often in the NHL. Right now, Marner is a good bet for the Hall of Fame. He’s scored at a 92-point pace over his nine-year career. He might have 1,000 points before he turns 31. Throw in two first-team all-star nods at right wing, finishing as a Selke finalist, plus two key plays in the 4 Nations Face-Off and Marner’s case should be cooking. But the playoffs remain the elephant in the room. His Houdini act in nearly every big postseason game has affected his reputation. By teaming up with Jack Eichel in a fresh start — and a key role forthcoming for Canada at the 2026 Olympics — this could be the year Marner slays some demons and accelerates his Hall case.

3. Jamie Benn, Dallas Stars

Age: 36
PPS Score: 217 (-0.2 vs. Standard)
PPS Tier: Borderline Below

Why 2025-26 is Important: Very few people think Jamie Benn belongs in the Hall of Fame: 3%, to be exact. It’s a long shot. But it shouldn’t be. Benn dominated the NHL when offense was way down — his 87-point Art Ross Trophy is the lowest winning total in an 82-game schedule. But that’s not his fault. Every Ross winner has been or will be in the Hall. Benn’s borderline PPS of 217 is higher than 12 post-expansion forward inductees, including Henrik Sedin, Cam Neely, Darryl Sittler, and Lanny McDonald. We just can’t see it because of the scoring climate during Benn’s peak. The news of the Stars’ captain’s collapsed lung is a setback to begin the year. But Benn’s next goal will be his 400th. His 44th point (he had 49 last year) would be #1,000. Modest numbers, without context. But maybe, just maybe, Benn has his iconic ‘Lanny moment’ — the respected, physically-ravaged warrior in a depth role raising the Cup and sailing into the sunset.

2. Jack Eichel, Vegas Golden Knights

Age: 28
PPS Score: 193 (-24 vs. Standard)
PPS Tier: Hall of Very Good

Why 2025-26 is Important: Eichel delivered his best NHL season in 2024-25 — a career-high 94 points and fifth-place finish in Hart voting. Between six years languishing in Buffalo and a sea of injuries, Eichel’s résumé is light for a high-end talent after 10 seasons: no individual hardware; two 30-goal seasons; only three 70-point years. For context, Rantanen leads Eichel by 55 goals, 97 points, four 30-goal seasons, plus another 80 playoff points. Both stars turn 29 later this month. With a shiny new toy in Marner, Eichel needs to repeat his monster year while he’s still on the right side of 30. An Olympic gold medal would pair well next to his 2023 Stanley Cup ring too. There’s little room for poor health or anything less than exceptional play for Eichel in the next few seasons. The Hall’s clock is ticking.

1. Matthew Tkachuk, Florida Panthers

Age: 27
PPS Score: 212 (-5 vs. Standard)
PPS Tier: Borderline Below

Why 2025-26 is Important: At 27, Tkachuk is the youngest player on this list. His first nine years include two 100-point seasons, two second-team All-Star nods, two Stanley Cups, and 84 playoff points. Tkachuk is within shouting distance of the PPS forward standard already (212 vs. 217). So, why the urgency? If we’re being honest, his punishing style isn’t primed for a long career at full health. Last year, his body finally betrayed him. Tkachuk could barely play in the 4 Nations Championship Game. He later lifted the Stanley Cup with an abductor muscle torn off the bone.

While Tkachuk’s expected back mid-season, questions will linger. For his career: Will he return the same player as before? Can he maintain the physical edge that defines his game? For Florida: Can the team thrive without him and captain Aleksander Barkov? With an aging core after three seasons of heavy mileage? For Team USA: Will Tkachuk be available for the Olympics? If so, will he be 100%? Tkachuk’s form upon his return this season may be 2025-26’s biggest revelation about a future Hall of Fame case. Stay tuned…

Just Missed: Artemi Panarin; Kirill Kaprizov; John Carlson; Brayden Point; Sam Reinhart; Igor Shesterkin; Sebastian Aho; Jake Guentzel

Data from Hockey-Reference and Quant Hockey

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