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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">LAST SEASON</h2>



<p>If there was any team that every hockey fan was rooting for to some extent last season, it was the <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/columbus-blue-jackets/line-combinations" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Columbus Blue Jackets</a>. In the wake of beloved superstar Johnny Gaudreau’s passing (along with his brother Matthew), the Blue Jackets had no expectations for the 2024-25 season. The loss could have made the on-ice impact many anticipated, and caused their offense to take a step back. Or the team could have used it as a rallying point and surprise everyone.</p>



<p>Thankfully, we got the latter.</p>



<p>On the backs of a Norris Trophy-caliber season from Zach Werenski, breakout seasons from a majority of their young core, and a stable presence behind the bench in Dean Evason, the Blue Jackets defied expectations by hanging around in the playoff conversation for the entire season. While their 12-15-5 start wasn’t the greatest, a 14-4-2 run right after that put them in great position to make some noise. Unfortunately, a 3-9-1 stretch in the final month of the season proved to be the difference maker, as even winning their final six games of the season wasn’t enough to pass the <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Montreal Canadiens</a> for the final Wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference, missing by just one win.</p><div class="injected-ad injected-video" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="0" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="202"></div>



<p>Columbus didn’t make a ton of changes over the summer, as they mostly lost depth pieces in an already crowded bottom six, and outside of adding another center in Charlie Coyle, they didn’t add much either. Instead, the Blue Jackets will look to their young core to continue to improve, and hope that’s enough to counter any potential regression due this season. But will that be enough, or will we see a step back from Columbus after they took the hockey world by storm last season?</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">KEY ADDITIONS &amp; DEPARTURES</h2>



<p></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Additions</h3>



<p>Charlie Coyle, C<br>Miles Wood, LW<br>Isac Lundestrom, C<br>Brendan Smith, D<br>Hudson Fasching, RW</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Departures</h3>



<p>Daniil Tarasov, G (Fla)<br>James van Riemsdyk, LW (Det)<br>Jack Johnson, D (UFA)<br>Sean Kuraly, C (Bos)<br>Justin Danforth, C/W (Buf)<br>Luke Kunin, C (Fla)<br>Kevin Labanc, RW (UFA)</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">OFFENSE</h2>



<p>The Blue Jackets were one of the better offensive teams in the league last season, as they were tied for seventh in goals for per game (3.26). They generated expected goals at a slightly lower rate, tied for 12th in the league in that regard (2.61 5v5 expected goals for per 60 minutes), although they did benefit from a slightly unsustainable shooting percentage at 10.45% (third in the league). Their power play wasn’t quite as strong though at a 19.5% rate (22nd), which lines up with their 7.89 PP xGF/60 (24th).</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="1" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="212"></div>



<p>Kirill Marchenko was the driving force of that action, as he broke out in a big way with 31 goals and 74 points, and at 25, he looks to be a big piece of this Blue Jackets team going forward. He established great chemistry with Dmitri Voronkov and Sean Monahan on the top line when the latter was healthy, and they’ll look to continue that success this season. Voronkov’s breakout wasn’t as big of a story, but with 23 goals and 47 points, he’s a great fit in their top six. Monahan has really turned his game around since being dealt as a salary dump with the <a href="https://flamesnation.ca/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Calgary Flames</a>, and notched 57 points in 54 games last season. However, staying healthy will be the biggest key for him, as he’s only played at least 80% of his team’s games once in the past four seasons.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="2" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="145"></div>



<p>Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli were also key parts of last season’s offense. Johnson had shown some signs in the past of being a consistent top-six scorer, but really stepped up with 24 goals and 57 points in 68 games. Fantilli took a more drastic, yet natural step from 27 to 54 points. It probably helps that he actually got playing time in 2024-25. With both players being recent top-five picks, they may be the biggest x-factors for this Columbus offense, and could turn it into a nightmare for teams if they get closer to their potential.</p>



<p>Cole Sillinger (33 points in 66 games) and Yegor Chinakov (15 in 30) have shown signs of being a great supporting scorers with the potential for more, and the Blue Jackets also have several veteran pieces for scoring. Jenner is productive when healthy (19 in 26), and a great power forward to complement Fantilli and Johnson on the second line. Charlie Coyle may prove to be a great depth add as well (35 in 83) and may help boost Sillinger and Chinakov into a solid third line that can contribute. Mathieu Olivier had a breakout season last year (18 goals and 32 points in 82 games), but some regression should be expected from him. Regardless, there’s a reason that the Blue Jackets let five regular forwards go without a sweat. They have the options up front.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="3" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="233"></div>



<p>On the back end, Werenski is the top producer, and he proved that he can score with the best of them on the blueline when he’s healthy, but the question will be whether he’s able to maintain that level going forward. Damon Severson, Dante Fabbro and Denton Mateychuk are all great puck-moving options as well and can produce when needed. Ivan Provorov also puts up points, but that’s more due to his ice time and role than his ability to do so. Still, it’s a blueline with pieces that will help distribute the puck to your forwards, and that’s all Columbus needs.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">DEFENSE</h2>



<p>For as great as the Blue Jackets’ offense was, their defense was much more suspect. They were 25th in goals against per game (3.26, like their goals for), 27th in 5v5 xGA/60 (2.76), and 22nd in penalty kill percentage (77%) and shorthanded xGA/60 (8.8). The group as a whole struggled to prevent chances and keep the puck out of the net, and unfortunately not a whole lot of improvements were made in that regard.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="4" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="176"></div>



<p>Columbus almost improved their defense by subtraction by moving on from Provorov but re-signed him at the 11th hour before free agency and are locked into seven years of a blueliner whose best selling point is that he can play a lot. He doesn’t usually play well, but he can play a lot. He’d be more suitable in the lower end of the lineup, but alas, he gets put in tough minutes for some reason. He’ll at least provide some mentorship for an inexperienced Mateychuk should that be one of the two pairings in the top four, even if Mateychuk’s defensive game (0.012 5v5 regularized adjusted plus-minus xGA/60) has already surpassed Provorov’s (0.071 in the past three seasons).</p>



<p>While Werenski isn’t known for his defensive game (0.083 RAPM 5v5 xGA/60 in the past three seasons), it’s actually not all that far off from Provorov’s, but at the very least Provorov getting the tougher competition frees Werenski up to play easier minutes and produce. That said, Werenski’s defensive metrics did improve once Columbus claimed Fabbro off of waivers and paired the two together, as his 2.72 5v5 xGA/60 improved to 2.6 together. The Blue Jackets as a whole were at 2.78 when neither defenseman was on the ice last season.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="5" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="209"></div>



<p>Beyond those two, Severson continues to be a polarizing blueliner, the kind that has flashy underlying numbers while failing the eye test. That said, even his defensive metrics aren’t what they used to be (-0.022 5v5 RAPM xGA/60 in the past three seasons), but he could still do well in a sheltered role. That is of course if Erik Gudbranson (0.088) doesn’t drag him down despite those easy minutes. Columbus does have Brendan Smith on a professional tryout contract, but considering how poorly he did with the <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations">Dallas Stars </a>last season (0.092), I wouldn’t expect a significant improvement there either.</p>



<p>Columbus’ defensive holes on the blueline are only magnified by their lack of strong defensive options amongst their forwards, especially their top players. Marchenko (-0.008 5v5 RAPM xGA/60 in the past three seasons) and Chinakov (-0.039) are the only players projected to be in the top nine with promising defensive numbers, and with frequent penalty killers like Justin Danforth and Sean Kuraly gone, you wonder who the Blue Jackets are going to lean on this season. They do have some fringe lineup options with solid defensive games like Olivier (-0.039), Zach Aston-Reese (-0.072), Isac Lundestrom (-0.081) and Hudson Fasching (-0.08), but I wouldn’t expect them to provide defensive support higher up in the lineup. The veterans in Monahan (0.071), Jenner (0.005), Coyle (0.025) and Miles Wood (0.191) will probably be leaned on for this, even if they shouldn’t be.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="6" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="239"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">GOALTENDING</h2>



<p>The Blue Jackets were middle of the pack in terms of their goaltending last season, as they sat 17th in the league with an .892 save percentage. That was lead by Elvis Merzlikins, who has been the de facto starter in Columbus for the better part of four years. He hasn’t exactly been the best starter in the league, as his .896 SV% in that span is tied for the fifth-worst among goalies with 100 games, and his -28.3 5v5 goals saved above expected was the second-worst behind only Philipp Grubauer. Merzlikins did have a 1.59 5v5 GSAx last season, so he at least didn’t sink the Blue Jackets last season, but they’ll need better if their defense doesn’t improve.</p>



<p>However, Merzlikins likely won’t be the starter anymore, as Jet Greaves had a hot run during the final stretch of the Blue Jackets’ regular season with a .973 SV% and 9.62 5v5 GSAx, and he finished the year with a .938 SV% and 13.07 5v5 GSAx. The team dealt Daniil Tarasov to the <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Florida Panthers</a> as a result, and they seem ready to give Greaves the chance to prove himself as a full-time NHLer. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him at least play in a 1A/1B situation with Merzlikins pretty quickly. Merzlikins is more established in the NHL, but Greaves has a bit more upside as an unproven commodity.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="7" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="230"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">COACHING</h2>



<p>Between Mike Babcock being fired before training camp began and Pascal Vincent refusing to play the young players on a rebuilding team with nothing to gain, 2023-24 was a fiasco in the coaching department for the Blue Jackets. So in 2024-25, they just needed a stable and competent presence behind the bench, and they got that in Evason.</p>



<p>Whether Evason is the guy to get the Blue Jackets to their full potential doesn’t matter if he isn’t at least able to get the bare minimum right and not be in the way all the time, and he managed to achieve that this season. The most important thing he could have done was give the young guys in Columbus a chance to thrive, and the fact that just about every young player took a step forward under Evason shows that he did as good of a job as he could have in that regard. As a result, he finished fifth in voting for the Jack Adams. The bar was on the floor for the Blue Jackets, but Evason has well surpassed that, and it will be intriguing to see the next steps that the team takes under him this season.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="8" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="199"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">ROOKIES</h2>



<p>Based on the Blue Jackets’ projected starting roster, none of their rookies will play a consistent role on the team right out of the gate this season (Greaves’ 11 and nine games in the previous two seasons removes his eligibility as a rookie). However, one player that could eventually crack the roster is Luca Del Bel Belluz. He’s already producing consistently when in the NHL (nine points in 16 games), and the rest of the game has not looked out of place either. There are plenty of forwards that he’d need to pass on the depth chart, but he certainly has a lot more promise than some of the options ahead of him.</p>



<p>It also wouldn’t be surprising to see Stanislav Svozil get a chance on the blueline considering Columbus’ lack of depth there, whether that will be due to injuries or just being a better option than Gudbranson or Smith. Svozil got a taste of the NHL three years ago before returning to the WHL, and has seen his game improve after two full seasons in the AHL.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="9" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="179"></div>



<p>Beyond those two, the Blue Jackets’ best rookie options are either too underdeveloped or committed to the NCAA or CHL, although in the latter instance, it’s possible that Cayden Lindstrom joins the team upon the conclusion of his season at Michigan State. Maybe Jordan Dumais or Luca Marelli get some playing time amidst some injuries, but there may be too many veteran options in front of them for that to happen at this point in time.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">BURNING QUESTIONS</h2>



<p><strong>1. Will the young core take any more steps/maintain their current form?</strong> Marchenko, Johnson, Fantilli, Voronkov and Sillinger all took big steps in 2024-25 to showcase how talented this Blue Jackets team is going to be in the coming years. But development isn’t linear, so there’s no telling which of these young players will continue to develop, who will stagnate, and who is set to take a step back this season.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="10" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="147"></div>



<p><strong>2. Was Werenski’s season an outlier or the new normal?</strong> After a career year with 82 points in 81 games and a second-place finish in Norris voting, Werenski has found himself in the conversation as one of the top 10 defensemen in the league, sometimes even the top five. But it does feel a bit premature after spending most of his career in the 40- or 50-point range. He probably needs another season or two at this level before he can truly be looked at in the conversation with the likes of Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Adam Fox and Rasmus Dahlin.</p>



<p><strong>3. Can Jet Greaves maintain his hot run from last season?</strong> A big reason why the Blue Jackets were in the playoff hunt until their last game was the play of Greaves. But his entire season came in a very small sample size of 11 games, never mind the hot stretch coming in just five games, so this level of play definitely shouldn’t be expected from him. Whether he can be a consistent starting goaltender, and maybe even the goalie of the future for the Blue Jackets, will be a big question to answer this season.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="11" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="197"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">PREDICTION</h2>



<p>There was a lot to like about the Blue Jackets last season, especially how a team with a young core overcame adversity and fell just shy of a playoff spot. The fact that most of the biggest improvements came from those younger players is a positive sign for the future. With an improved defense and a long-term option in net nailed down, it’s easy to see this team contending for the playoffs (and maybe even the Stanley Cup) for years to come.</p>



<p>But there’s also a bit of uncertainty surrounding what this specific season holds for Columbus. Far too many players had career years offensively for this to be the new norm for everyone, and it feels like at least one or two of their young talents will take a slight step back, if only for this season. And, well, the defense isn’t improved and a long-term option in net isn’t nailed down yet.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="12" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="154"></div>



<p>That said, the Blue Jackets probably won’t deviate too far from last season. At worst, they’re out of the playoff hunt with a week or two left in the season instead of one game. At best, they end their five-year playoff drought, although likely only in a Wildcard spot.</p>



<p>_____</p>



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