LAST SEASON

For the past few seasons, the only storyline surrounding the Washington Capitals has been Alex Ovechkin’s chase of Wayne Gretzky’s goal record. But after Ovechkin got only 31 goals and the Caps barely snuck into the playoffs with a -37 goal differential in the 2023-24 season, that storyline appeared to be in doubt. No one expected the Capitals to be a difference maker going into the 2024-25 season, and many wondered if Ovechkin would ever reach that coveted 895th goal.

The offseason saw longtime Caps Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie retire; Darcy Kuemper, Nick Jensen and Max Pacioretty depart; and Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jakob Chychrun, Matt Roy, Andrew Mangiapane, Logan Thompson, Brandon Duhaime and Taylor Raddysh enter the fold. Washington was clearly looking to finish up their on-the-fly retool and not only give Ovi the offensive insulation he needed to break the goal record, but also maybe get one more shot at a Stanley Cup before he retires.

Turns out, the retool worked. The Capitals got off to an 8-2-0 start and never really looked back, riding on career years from a majority of their roster. Only twice did they lose three games in a row, and they held pace with the Winnipeg Jets until the very end of the season for the Presidents’ Trophy. The Caps finished just five points behind the Jets with a 51-22-9 record, but still won the Eastern Conference by a three-point advantage over the Toronto Maple Leafs. Washington’s performance also earned head coach Spencer Carbery the Jack Adams Award in his sophomore season with the team.

That resurgence from the Capitals was led by a return to form from Ovechkin. Entering the year 41 goals behind Gretzky, Ovechkin scored 15 goals in the Caps’ first 18 games to put hope back in hockey fans that he could beat the record by the end of the season. The biggest injury of his career certainly caused a scare, but he returned in short order and scored 27 goals in 43 games to surpass The Great One, scoring the lone goal in a 4-1 loss to the New York Islanders to do so.

But the magic had to run out at some point. While the Caps handled the Montreal Canadiens with relative ease to get their first playoff series win since winning the Stanley Cup in 2018, Washington’s second-round matchup with the Carolina Hurricanes proved to be too much for them. Just like that, the season was over, and while Ovechkin had finally secured his legacy as the greatest goal scorer of all time, more work needed to be done if he was to get another Stanley Cup before he retired, something that could happen as early as next year.

The Capitals didn’t make any significant changes in the summer, only saying goodbyes to a few players in order to make room for incoming extensions and then filling those holes in with depth pieces. But can Washington maintain their performance from last season, or will they take a step back in what could be Ovechkin’s final season?

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions

Justin Sourdif, RW
Declan Chisholm, D

Departures

T.J. Oshie, RW (Retired)
Andrew Mangiapane, RW (EDM)
Lars Eller, C (OTT)
Taylor Raddysh, RW (NYR)
Jakub Vrana, LW (Sweden)
Alexander Alexeyev, D (PIT)

OFFENSE

The Capitals were one of the top offenses in the league (second-most goals per game with 3.49), which was largely driven by their 5v5 play (second in 5v5 goals for per 60 minutes with 2.84) while their power play was more middle of the pack (tied for 13th with a 23.5% power play%). While a 2.79 5v5 expected goals for per 60 minutes (third) showed there was some process to the results, a league-leading 10.59% 5v5 shooting percentage played a larger role in the overall total.

That was largely due to around half the team having career highs in points. Dylan Strome (82 points), Aliaksei Protas (66), Dubois (66), Tom Wilson (65), Connor McMichael (57), Chychrun (47), Rasmus Sandin (30), Nic Dowd (27), Martin Fehervary (25) and Brandon Duhaime (21) all put up career bests, doing so with higher on-ice SH% than their career rates, while Sandin and Fehervary were the only two players whose individual SH% were lower. In fact, three of the eight players who didn’t have career years in Mangiapane, Eller and Raddysh are now gone, so that’s an even larger percentage of the pie set for regression.

If there was ever a red flag that a team’s offense was going to take a step back, this is it. The Capitals will have to hope the younger portion of that group (Protas, McMichael, Sandin, Fehervary) were breakout seasons instead of unsustainable ones, but it’s hard to see most of these players repeating that again. Still, a lot of these names were reclamation projects Washington bought low on, and they’ve all improved significantly since joining the team. That’s not nothing either.

Of the players not in that group, Ovechkin and John Carlson have the biggest impacts, which is fitting because those are two of the three remaining from Washington’s 2018 Cup win. Ovechkin’s shot and goal-scoring ability is rivalled by very few players in the league even at 40, and his age has not hindered his physical presence either. While Carlson’s game continues to leave out the “defense” in defenseman, his playmaking and offense-driving ability from the back end are still among the best in the league. Both players will likely be at the point on the power play again, a spot they’ve held down for most of their careers.

Of the remaining players, Anthony Beauvillier will be one of the more interesting to watch. He fit like a glove alongside Ovechkin and Strome on the top line, especially in the playoffs with his six points in 10 games. If he can continue that, he may help make up for some of the offense destined to be lost due to regression this season. Sonny Milano, who missed all but three games with an upper-body injury, has also proven to be a solid complementary scorer when given the proper linemates.

Otherwise, the players not in that career-year group are either more defensive-minded (Matt Roy, Trevor van Riemsdyk) or rookies (Ryan Leonard Justin Sourdif).

DEFENSE

The Capitals were one of the better teams at preventing goals, tied for eighth in goals against per game (2.79) and tied for fourth on the penalty kill (82%). However, a lot of that was based on their goaltending (which we’ll address shortly), as their 2.58 5v5 expected goals against per 60 was tied for 20th and was the third-worst rate from a playoff team.

It’s surprising that those are the results because on paper the Capitals have one of the deeper bluelines in the league. That said, their depth stems from a lot of “one-way” options. Carlson, Chychrun and Sandin are excellent smooth-skating offensive defensemen, but their defensive play leaves a lot to be desired as their respective 0.092, 0.012 and 0.037 5v5 regularized adjusted plus-minus xGA/60 in the past three seasons indicates.

However, what makes Washington’s blueline depth work is that they also have a defensive defenseman to equal their partners out and can roll three pairs as such. Fehervary (-0.035 5v5 RAPM xGA/60) plays alongside Carlson, van Riemsdyk (-0.153) counters Chychrun, and Roy (-0.107) balances out Sandin, giving the Caps three pairs that can provide shutdown defense and puck movement from their back end no matter who is on the ice. Only Roy (0.066 5v5 RAPM xGF/60) has a positive impact at both ends of the ice.

Chisholm joins the Caps’ defense core this year from the Minnesota Wild and may be another interesting buy-low project for them after costing only a fourth-round pick and Chase Priskie. Chisholm is more of a defensive option (-0.153 5v5 RAPM xGA/60) than an offensive one (-0.055 5v5 RAPM xGF/60), but he’ll fit well on their blueline.

Where the Capitals’ defense falls apart a bit more is the play of their forwards in their own zone. They do have some great options, including their three representatives in the voting for the Selke Trophy in Dowd (-0.155 5v5 RAPM xGA/60), Dubois (-0.014) and Protas (-0.073). Duhaime (-0.044), Wilson (-0.078) and Milano (-0.063) also are a part of that group.

But Washington also has a few forwards who are horrendous in their own end, like Strome (0.072), McMichael (0.11) and Ovechkin (0.396), so the ones who are good need to work extra hard to balance that out.

GOALTENDING

Hiding Washington’s inconsistent defending was a goalie who may have had the biggest career year of any Capital in 2024-25: Logan Thompson. He had always looked good with the Vegas Golden Knights, but the Caps gave him a bigger role, and he proved to be an excellent starter with a .910 save percentage and 23.59 5v5 goals saved above expected. He stuttered in the second half of the season with an .881 save percentage and 0.7 5v5 GSAx in his final 16 games of the regular season, but he rebounded in the playoffs with a .917 SV% and 6.59 5v5 GSAx.

What also made the Caps goaltending work in 2024-25 was having Charlie Lindgren as a backup option. Lindgren wasn’t nearly as great as his 2023-24 breakout season with a .896 SV% and a -5.76 5v5 GSAx, but much like how Thompson will fall back down to Earth from his breakout season, Lindgren will likely regress back up to a similar level. If both goalies can just provide the Capitals with stable goaltending, this should remain a playoff-caliber team.

COACHING

Carbery enters his third season behind the Capitals bench, and his first two seasons have gone as well as one could hope. With the 10th-best record at 91-53-20, a seventh place finish in Jack Adams voting in 2023-24, a Jack Adams win in 2024-25 and the Capitals’ first playoff series win since hoisting the Stanley Cup, he’s extracted about as much as he can from this roster.

This shouldn’t be a surprise, though, as Carbery’s time as head coach with the Hershey Bears from 2018 to 2021 means he’s already worked with quite a few players on this Capitals roster. Fehervary, McMichael and Protas have been key parts of Carbery’s Bears’ and Capitals’ teams, while Vincent Iorio and Hendrix Lapierre were with the Bears but only knocking on the door at the NHL level. If anything, Carbery was the perfect candidate to take over at this point in time given how familiar he was with the Capitals’ prospects and how well he utilizes them.

Carbery’s seat is nowhere close to being hot, but there may be a couple red flags on the horizon (neither of his own doing). It’s possible he may get the blame for the Caps’ inevitable regression this season, depending on how badly they fall the other way and how much it affects their results. Then there’s the “curse” with the Jack Adams, as Rod Brind’Amour is the only previous winner to remain with the club they won the award with – including 2024’s winner, Rick Tocchet. In fact, the three previous winners were all let go around a year after winning the award. Watch your back, Spencer. The knife may strike quickly.

ROOKIES

You would think with the recent resurgence of the Capitals, their top prospects have all graduated, right? Wrong. There’s a reason why their AHL squad won the Calder Cup in 2023 and 2024, and it’s because of how Washington still has some untapped potential in its system.

The likely candidates to start with the NHL squad this season are Leonard and Miroshnichenko. Leonard got a taste of the NHL after his season with Boston College wrapped up, and while he didn’t get nearly as many puck touches as he would have liked, his skill was evident, and he’ll certainly get more touches this year in the top six. Miroshnichenko has reached the point where he’s very comfortable in the AHL, so a spot in the Capitals’ bottom six feels like a reasonable next step.

Sourdif joins the Capitals’ prospect pool this season from the Florida Panthers (at a pricey cost of a second-round pick for a 23 year old), but it looks like they did so to give him NHL time. He’s produced well in the AHL and plays a heavy game despite his 5-foot-11, 172-pound frame.

In addition, Vincent Iorio’s game has matured in the AHL, and he could earn some more minutes in the NHL in the event of injuries to the Capitals’ blueline. Andrew Cristall and Aliaksei’s younger brother Ilya Protas are just beginning their professional careers but have impressed elsewhere so far and could get opportunities with the Caps if that impressiveness continues.

Speaking of brothers, Lane Hutson’s younger brother Cole may be committed to Boston University this season, but has been so good at the collegiate level (almost reminiscent of Lane) that he may get an NHL sample once his NCAA season is done.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. How much of a regression should be expected? It’s been the whole narrative of this preview. Thompson. Strome. Protas. Dubois. Wilson. McMichael. Chychrun. Sandin. Dowd. Fehervary. Duhaime. Even Ovechkin’s 0.68 goals per game was the fifth-highest rate of his career. Just about everyone who played most of the season for the Caps had a career year. But not everyone is going to hit that level again this season. Washington will either have to hope some players in this group continue to build on last season or hope their defense and goaltending can make up for the loss of offense.

2. How many more goals will Alex Ovechkin get? For years, the question with the Caps was always, “When will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s record?” Now that Ovi has passed the Great One, it shifts to, “How many goals will he finish with?” He’s now at 897, so 900 should be a walk in the park barring a career-ending injury beforehand (*knocks on wood*). Last season’s pace over a full 82-game season would give him 55, so that total would put him at 952 after this season if he continues to produce like that, and suddenly 1,000 is within reach in a season or two. But then that also leads to the question…

3. Is this Ovechkin’s last season? Ovi enters 2025-26 in the final year of his five-year deal, and at 40 years old, retirement is definitely on the table now that he’s got the goal record. There were rumours over the summer of him retiring before this season, but Ovechkin quieted those. But it’s certainly possible he calls it a career after this season, especially if he has any desire to play in Russia. Is his mind already made up? Or does another strong season put him in the range of 1,000 goals and entice him to stick around long enough to hit that mark? For a player of Ovi’s stature and legacy, it feels like an announcement would have come before the start of the season, but only he and those close to him know the answer.

PREDICTION

The overarching theme of unsustainability and regression with this Capitals team somehow makes their outcome this season predictable AND unpredictable. There’s no way 11 players are going to set career highs and score/save well above their career rates (especially when all 11 players are returning), so regression is almost inevitable. To expect this group to be contending for the Presidents’ Trophy again will be expecting too much.

But beyond that, this is still a young squad on the rise, and there’s a chance some of its players will build upon last year to establish who they are in the NHL. Even when regression kicks in for the Capitals’ results, where we may see progress from this team is in their underlying numbers and their ability to drive play.

The Capitals’ floor is still a playoff-caliber team, especially with the uncertainty in the Metropolitan Division beyond the Hurricanes and maybe the New Jersey Devils. The Capitals should make the playoffs with some certainty, but if they can improve on how they consistently defend and generate offense, the real progress will come in a much deeper playoff run.

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