Los Angeles Kings: 2nd in Pacific Division, 105 points*
Edmonton Oilers: 3rd in Pacific Division, 99 points*
*one game remaining in schedule
Schedule (ET)
TBD
The Skinny
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: the Los Angeles Kings and the Edmonton Oilers are going to face off in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
At this point, it looks like we’re set for a best-of-seven series of best-of-seven series’ with how inevitable this first round matchup seems to be. If that was the case, then the Kings are in deep trouble, down 3-0 after the Oilers took the first three series’ in 2022, 2023 and 2024. And yet for the first time, this looks like the Kings’ best chance to finally exorcise their demons and beat the Oilers.
A lot of that is just because of how vulnerable the Oilers are right now. Yes, you should never count out Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl putting the team on their backs and putting up video game totals, especially when the former is just starting to heat up again, and the latter has put himself in the MVP conversation this season.
But the offense around those two is the worst it’s been over this four-year span, with their secondary scoring options having down seasons, and the depth beyond that providing minimal production. Add in injuries taking a couple of key pieces out of the lineup and lingering in a few key pieces in the lineup, questions in net, and several stretches of mediocrity this season, and the Oilers look very beatable.
Along with that, the Kings are probably the best they’ve looked over the last four years. Sure, their offense still isn’t as potent as the Oilers, but their defensive game is arguably the best in the league, and for the first time in these first round matchups, they have a competent goaltender. On top of that, they have a phenomenal home record of 31-5-4. After a hot start this season, there were some concerns that they would peel off like they did last season, but this Kings team has yet to slow down.
So is this finally the year that the Kings slay the blue and orange dragon? Or will we see more magic from McDavid, Draisaitl, and co. to overcome their issues this season and give us the status quo?
Head to Head
Los Angeles Kings: 3-1-0
Edmonton Oilers: 1-2-1
The Kings had the advantage during the regular season, taking three of the four games, holding McDavid and Draisaitl to two points each, and outscoring the Oilers 12-4, including 3-0 and 5-0 wins in the final month of the season.
Usually it’s the matchups closest to the playoffs that are the most telling because that’s when you usually see the rosters that the teams will stroll out in the playoffs. But it’s the opposite in this series, as Draisaitl was absent from the 5-0 game, while both McDavid and Draisaitl were not in the lineup for the 3-0 game.
When McDavid and Draisaitl were both in the lineup for the Oilers, the Kings needed overtime to get the win, and the Oilers got the win in the other one. Expect to see the series look more like that than the two more recent games.
Top Five Scorers
Los Angeles
Adrian Kempe, 73 points
Anze Kopitar, 67 points
Kevin Fiala, 60 points
Quinton Byfield, 54 points
Warren Foegele, 46 points
Edmonton
Leon Draisaitl, 106 points
Connor McDavid, 99 points
Evan Bouchard, 67 points
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 49 points
Zach Hyman, 44 points
X-Factor
Brett Kulak has always been a “fixer” on the Oilers’ blueline since joining the team in 2022. If an Oilers defenseman was struggling, they put him on a pair with Kulak, and magically they end up playing better.
Well, Edmonton’s blueline is facing the biggest problem it’s faced in a few seasons with Mattias Ekholm out for the entire series at minimum, and it may be up to Kulak to fix it. While it’s entirely possible that the Oilers run a top four of Jake Walman-Evan Bouchard and Darnell Nurse-Ty Emberson, Kulak may be the best fit from a defensive perspective to replace Ekholm’s minutes as adequately as possible.
Regardless of where he plays, Kulak will certainly get an elevated role in Ekholm’s absence, and how he performs in that role may be the key to plugging the Oilers’ biggest hole going into this series, and possibly turn the tides back in their favour.
Offense
For as great as the Kings have looked this season, their offense still isn’t a dominant force to be reckoned with, especially in comparison to the Oilers. On the surface, they sit 13th in goals for per game (3.06) and 28th in power play percentage (17.7%), and the underlying numbers back that up, as they’re tied for 12th in 5v5 expected goals per 60 (2.61) and 18th in power play xGF/60 (8.54). It’s a solid offense, certainly worthy of a playoff team, but it’s not their bread and butter.
Los Angeles still boasts some solid goal-scorers in Kevin Fiala and Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar can still produce, and even Quinton Byfield has picked up his game as of late to salvage a disappointing start to the season. That’s all surrounded by some other excellent secondary scoring options like Warren Foegele, Phillip Danault, Alex Laferriere, Trevor Moore, and the recently-acquired Andrei Kuzmenko that’s managed 17 points in 21 games as a King. It’s a solid top nine, but is still lacking a true game-breaking talent. But then again, the early 2010s Kings didn’t have that talent either.
On the backend, it’s more of a “by committee” offense than any one true potent threat. Brandt Clarke and Vladislav Gavrikov were the only Kings defenders to hit 30 points, but Jordan Spence, Mikey Anderson and even Joel Edmundson hit 20 points. To the surprise of no one, Drew Doughty was the closest they had to a dynamic offensive threat from the blueline, as a season that began late due to a preseason injury still got him 17 points in 29 games, a 48-point pace over 82 games.
Across the ice, it’s a slightly different story for the Oilers. On the surface, their offense was surprisingly human with an 11th-ranked goals per game (3.16) and power play (23.9%), and while their underlying numbers on the man-advantage lined up with those by ranking 11th in power play xGF/60 (9.27), their 5v5 chance creation is much better than their scoring totals lead on with the second-ranked 5v5 xGF/60 (2.88).
When you have the best player in the league AND one of the most valuable players this season in McDavid and Draisaitl, that can change in an instant. They are more than capable of putting the Oilers on their backs and carrying them to a series win, and always have an extra gear in the postseason, as they rank 3rd and 5th all-time in playoff points per game among players with at least 50 points.
In the event that the Kings can stop – or even contain – McDavid and Draisaitl, the Oilers’ offense beyond them is weaker than years past. The secondary trio of Evan Bouchard, Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins all took steps back offensively, particularly the latter two, and it’s a big reason why the power play hasn’t been nearly as dynamic.
After them, the depth is quite shallow, as Edmonton’s offseason gutting of the more youthful pieces in Dylan Holloway, Ryan McLeod, Philip Broberg and even Foegele has left them much slower and older. Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson were expected to round out their top six but disappointed instead, while bringing back most of the same gang has left them with few other scoring options.
Jake Walman and Darnell Nurse can at least provide something on the back end, but the next highest-scoring forward beyond those four is Connor Brown with 30 points. Evander Kane may return at some point, but I wouldn’t hold my breath on a 33-year-old playing his first game of the season coming off injuries to his hip adductor, hernia, lower abdomen and knee making a significant impact.
Overall, Edmonton has the top-end talent to give the Kings fits in their own end, but if Los Angeles can keep McDavid and Draisaitl’s damage to a minimum, they may just have the depth to have an advantage. But it’s still not by a wide margin.
Defense
If there’s a team that has the horses to contain McDavid and Draisaitl, it may just be the Kings. They currently sit second in goals against per game (2.44) and seventh in penalty kill percentage (81.3%), and the analytics back that up with a league-best 5v5 expected goals against per 60 (2.13) and shorthanded xGA/60 (7.56).
A lot of that is helped by the fact that the Kings have the defensive equivalent of a McDavid/Draisaitl center depth in Kopitar and Danault. At least, usually they do. Danault has still been a rock defensively for them, but Kopitar actually posted the worst defensive GAR season of his career at -2.7. He still had a positive impact overall, but you’d hope that he can bring back that defensive genius that helped the Kings to their two Stanley Cups against McDavid and Draisaitl.
Luckily for the Kings, Kopitar is one of very few defensive blemishes in their lineup. Only him, Clarke and Edmundson finished with a negative defensive GAR among any Kings player with 50 minutes of ice time this season. Everyone else had a positive impact, highlighted by Foegele (5.4 defensive GAR), Byfield (2.7), Laferriere (2.2), Alex Turcotte (2.8) and Tanner Jeannot (2) up front and Gavrikov (8.2), Anderson (7.6), Spence (6.7) and Jacob Moverare (2.1) on their blueline.
For the Oilers, after much defensive improvement these past couple seasons, they took a step back this year. It’s not that they’re bad, they’re just middling in that regard. They’re currently tied for 15th in GA/G (2.9) and tied for 18th in PK% (77.9%), and while some of that was hurt with lackluster goaltending, their underlying numbers still aren’t great, as they’re tied for 13th in 5v5 xGA/60 (2.45) and in 12th in SH xGA/60 (8.23).
It’s funny to see that happen in a season where Edmonton’s consistent defensive enigma in Leon Draisaitl actually had his first positive defensive season with a 1.5 defensive GAR. That improvement has certainly been a factor in his contention for the Hart Trophy this year, along with helping the team amidst a more human season from McDavid.
But those two aren’t even the top defensive dogs on the Oilers roster. Vasily Podkolzin (5.3 defensive GAR), Brown (2.8) and Hyman (2.2) are the top defensive forwards on the squad, and on defense, Kulak (4.8) and Emberson (4.5) are the best healthy defensemen for the Oilers.
Healthy is the key word there, though. Ekholm sits third among Edmonton blueliners in defensive GAR, but he will not make an appearance in this series due to an undisclosed injury. That is a crushing blow to their blueline, as he is a key part of their defensive game, and it’s one of the biggest reasons why the Oilers feel more vulnerable against the Kings this season.
Unlike the Kings, the Oilers also have a few more players with negative defensive impacts in their lineup. In fact, 15 of the 27 players to play at least 50 minutes this season finished with a negative defensive GAR, highlighted by Skinner (-4.2) and Mattias Janmark (-3.1) up front, and Nurse on their blueline (-5.5), who was also tied for 11th with the worst defensive GAR among blueliners.
Long story short, this is the Kings’ most significant advantage. If they’re going to beat the Oilers, it will be because they might be equipped enough to shut down – or at least contain – McDavid and Draisaitl.
Goaltending
With the Kings’ biggest strength being their defensive game, that also carries over to their goaltending. While previous iterations of this series saw a past-their-prime Jonathan Quick & Cam Talbot or an inconsistent Joonas Korpisalo in net, this year they have a legitimate threat in the crease in Darcy Kuemper. In one of the weirdest win-win trades of the summer, Los Angeles managed to offload Pierre-Luc Dubois’ contract for Kuemper’s, and he’s put up a season that might earn him some Vezina votes with a .922 save percentage and 29.45 goals saved above expected, the third-best marks in the league. If he falters though, the Kings are in a bit of trouble, as David Rittich hasn’t been nearly as effective with an .889 SV% and -7.84 GSAx.
If you didn’t think the Oilers had question marks in their lineup already, it gets even worse in net. After an inconsistent 2023-24 season for Stuart Skinner, including nearly losing Edmonton their second round series against the Vancouver Canucks, he didn’t do much to add confidence to his performance this season with an .894 SV%. However, some of that has to do with the Oilers’ worsened defensive game, as he does also have a 5.65 GSAx. Oddly enough, backup Calvin Pickard had the exact opposite results with a slightly better .900 SV%, but a much worse -5.86 GSAx. Still, the Oilers really need to hope that they get the good Skinner in net to match Kuemper, especially with a weakened blueline in front of him.
Injuries
At this point of the season, it’s always tough to decipher who is actually hurt and who is “load management” hurt, so let’s get these out of the way. For the Kings, Kopitar, Byfield, Doughty and Anderson were all hurt on Tuesday but played Monday, so it’s safe to assume that that is just load management. For the Oilers, it appears that all of McDavid, Draisaitl and Hyman should be expected for Game 1, Walman and Troy Stecher are most likely good for Game 1, and Trent Frederic is hopeful.
On the Kings’ side, that leaves Jeannot and Edmundson as the lone legitimate injuries. With Jeannot being downgraded to week-to-week last week, it’s likely that he doesn’t return for at least the start of the playoffs, but maybe makes an appearance in the back half of this series. Edmundson’s status is a bit more unclear, but it appears he’s more day-to-day, so he’s a possibility to play earlier in the series.
On the Oilers’ side, Ekholm has already been labelled as out for the first round, so don’t expect to see him at all. Kane is the real question mark here, as he appears to be getting closer to a return, but just needs to be cleared by the medical staff, as per head coach Kris Knoblauch.
Intangibles
At this point, the Kings matching up against the Oilers is reaching Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins or Vancouver Canucks vs. Chicago Blackhawks levels of “slaying the dragon”. There’s already a lot of questions surrounding the Kings core in terms of if they did a good enough of a job in their rebuild, especially with how disappointing a lot of their young talent’s development has been. The fact that they’ve been on the losing end of these series’ leads you to wonder if management will be antsy to make changes if they lose a fourth straight.
On top of that, they have two franchise legends in Kopitar and Doughty who aren’t exactly spring chickens. They already have two Stanley Cups, but since that 2014 win, the Kings haven’t even won a playoff series. You have to think that the two will want a couple more kicks at the can before they call it a career.
For the Oilers, they came oh-so-close to finally getting that first Stanley Cup with this core last season, and you can bet that they are hungry to get the job done. That might be the biggest edge that they have in this series. We’ve already seen the damage McDavid and Draisaitl can do in the playoffs, now imagine what a pissed-off McDavid and Draisaitl can do.
Along with that, there’s likely a hooded figure with a scythe sitting outside of Rogers Place, shouting reminders of Draisaitl’s cap hit next season, contract comparables for Bouchard, and the projected maximum AAV for a player next season for McDavid. The salary cap shows no mercy (unless you’re the Tampa Bay Lightning or Vegas Golden Knights), and over the next 15 months, the Oilers three best players’ cap hits will jump from around $25 million to close to $40 million. Even with a rising cap, cuts will be need to be made in that span, so this may be the last run this roster gets.
Series Prediction
In the four years these two teams have crossed paths in the first round, this might be the best the Kings have looked, and the worst the Oilers have looked. Los Angeles has become a defensive juggernaut, has Vezina-caliber goaltending from Kuemper, and has some solid depth scoring, even if they lack that top end talent. Meanwhile, McDavid is at his most human in years, so many key scorers for Edmonton have taken steps back, their goaltending is inconsistent, and they’ll be in huge trouble defensively without Ekholm.
Every fiber of my being is telling me not to bet against a talented and highly-motivated McDavid and Draisaitl, especially when they’ve put the Kings in their place for three straight years. But this Kings team does feel that much better this season, and that’s why I think they finally exorcise their demons this time around. But I wouldn’t be surprised if McDavid and Draisaitl make me look like an idiot.
I already hate this.
Kings in seven games.