Toronto Maple Leafs: 1st in Atlantic Division, 108 points
Ottawa Senators: 1st Eastern Conference Wild Card, 97 points
Schedule (ET)
| Date | Game | Time ET |
| Sunday, April 20 | 1. Ottawa at Toronto | 7 p.m. |
| Tuesday, April 22 | 2. Ottawa at Toronto | 7:30 p.m. |
| Thursday, April 24 | 3. Toronto at Ottawa | 7 p.m. |
| Saturday, April 26 | 4. Toronto at Ottawa | 7 p.m. |
| *Tuesday, April 29 | 5. Ottawa at Toronto | TBD |
| *Thursday, May 1 | 6. Toronto at Ottawa | TBD |
| *Saturday, May 3 | 7. Ottawa at Toronto | TBD |
The Skinny
It’s finally back. Welcome to the Battle of Ontario, playoff edition, for the first time since Joe Nieuwendyk pumped two beach balls past Patrick Lalime in Game 7 of the first round in 2004. The Leafs and Senators have lived lifetimes since a glorious five-year stretch at the turn of the century in which they met for four heated, dramatic series in five postseasons, with Toronto coming out on top each time. The two clubs are unrecognizable from the versions who met 21 years ago, captained by now-retired Mats Sundin and Daniel Alfredsson. But as Morgan Rielly and Ridly Greig’s dust-up over a slapshot into an empty net last season reminds us, the two bitter rivals should pick up exactly where they left off in 2004 and deliver a passionate, viciously contested series.
The Leafs’ gradual identity change over their first two seasons under GM Brad Treliving is complete. They’re still powered by superstars Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander, but they’re statistically the biggest, heaviest team in the NHL now, armed with some towering blueliners. They play more of a north-south game under new head coach Craig Berube. The Leafs’ under-the-hood play driving is less impressive than it was under GM Kyle Dubas and coach Sheldon Keefe, but the Leafs had no choice but to change given they’d won a single playoff series in their first eight seasons of the Matthews/Marner era. Now we’re about to find out if their brawnier brand of hockey, which did lead them to their first Atlantic Division title, will translate to their deepest playoff run in decades.
The Senators, meanwhile, enter this series as the hungry underdog with little to lose. Icing what appeared to be a playoff-caliber lineup year after year, loaded with exciting young talents extended on long-term contracts, they repeatedly fell short, but they’ve finally halted their playoff drought at eight years. That means we get to enjoy Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson in playoff hockey for the first time.
The Sens haven’t looked remotely afraid of the Leafs in their regular-season tilts over the past few years. Could an upset be in the cards?
Head to Head
Toronto: 0-3-0
Ottawa: 3-0-0
About that “underdog” status. Yeah, the Sens should shrug it off quickly, having swept the regular-season series, outscoring the Leafs by a combined margin of 7-3. That said, matchup wasn’t all that lopsided. None of the games was a blowout, as Ottawa won the second meeting by a goal and added an empty netter to clinch the third one. Territorially, the games were a wash; the Sens dominated the 5-on-5 expected goals in the first game, the Leafs did in the second, and the third was pretty even. Matthews also didn’t suit up for the second game. So while the season series should give Ottawa extra swagger, it isn’t cause for panic on Toronto’s side.
Top Five Scorers
Toronto
Mitch Marner, 102 pts
William Nylander, 84 pts
Auston Matthews, 78 pts
John Tavares, 74 pts
Matthew Knies, 58 pts
Ottawa
Tim Stutzle, 79 pts
Drake Batherson, 68 pts
Jake Sanderson, 57 pts
Brady Tkachuk, 55 pts
Claude Giroux, 50 pts
X-Factor
The 4 Nations Face-Off gave us a long-awaited taste of Brady Tkachuk in high-stakes hockey and, wow, was he a treat to watch. While his Americans fell one goal short of winning the tournament, he was a wrecking ball, burying three goals in four games and bludgeoning everyone in his path via crushing hits and, in one memorable moment, his fists. His gravitational pull on the game is so powerful. He has as much potential as anyone on either team to dictate the pace of this series. Then again, the Sens have rested him since late March as he nurses an upper-body ailment. Were they being extra careful knowing they were in a secure playoff position, or will he not be close to 100 percent for Game 1? There’s no doubt he plays, but if he can’t bring his usual blend of skill and violence, Ottawa’s chances dwindle.
The other big X-factor: the Leafs finally have their own unicorn power forward to counter the Tkachuk effect. Left winger Matthew Knies experienced a massive breakout this season, blowing through his perceived ceiling. He’s not quite as mean as Tkachuk, but Knies is an imposing physical presence who can take the game where he wants with his bullish strength. He’s been so good that he can offset what Tkachuk gives Ottawa.
Offense
At first glance, the Leafs are the same star-studded unit that regularly ranks among the NHL’s deadliest teams. They sit seventh in the NHL in goals per game and have never finished lower than ninth across nine seasons of the Matthews/Marner era. Their seventh-ranked power play continues to run hot and cold but seemed to sort itself out during the stretch run; no Eastern Conference team has scored more power-play goals from the 4 Nations break onward. The Leafs still get their elite offense from the Knies-Marner-Matthews line plus the second line that features John Tavares, William Nylander and a fluid left winger. But they’re a deeper club than they sometimes get credit for now, boasting six 20-goal scorers and seven players with at least 15 goals. Big, fast Bobby McMann, who was injured and missed the Boston Bruins series last year, has given the Leafs a big lift. That said, they could use a lot more from local boy and Trade Deadline acquisition Scott Laughton, who was supposed to bring snarl and a bit of scoring punch as a third-line center but is relegated to fourth-line duty at the moment and has seemingly pressed since he arrived, managing one goal in 19 games.
The Senators don’t score as much as you’d think given the talent they have in their top six, sitting 21st in total offense. Like Toronto, Ottawa grades out as below average in generating scoring chances and expected goals at 5-on-5, but the Sens don’t score as much as the Leafs do because the Sens don’t finish as much. They sit 30th in the NHL in 5-on-5 shooting percentage. They don’t have a single 30-goal scorer at the moment, albeit Tkachuk would’ve gotten there if he’d been healthy. Stutzle is by far their best pure scoring talent and looked a couple years ago like he’d mature into a perennial 100-point scorer, but his offense has plateaued the past couple years. The Sens won’t win this series if it’s a track meet. They need to slow the game down and grind it into something ugly.
Defense
The Leafs are perceived by many to be a stingier defensive club this season, sitting top-10 in goals against per game. They’ve added the righthanded shutdown defenseman archetype they so badly craved in recent seasons, having signed Chris Tanev, who’s been exactly what they hoped he’d be, and traded for Brandon Carlo, who has stabilized Morgan Rielly. And yet, while their D-corps, which also includes the likes of Philippe Myers, Simon Benoit and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, is big and physical, and they have the NHL’s leading takeaway artist up front in Marner…perception simply isn’t reality. The 1994-95 New Jersey Devils they ain’t. Only one Eastern Conference playoff team allows more 5-on-5 scoring chances per game than the Leafs this season. They’ve been propped up by mostly stellar goaltending. They own the league’s No. 16 penalty kill to boot.
The question is whether this team, seemingly sculpted to be “anti-Dubas,” is built to excel defensively not in the regular season but in the playoffs when the officiating is looser. There’s no denying Toronto’s toughness; this team ranks eighth in the NHL in hits per game. If its big, physical D-corps is allowed to get away with more, maybe the expected goals against number shrinks in a hurry.
The biggest change for the Senators this year under head coach Travis Green: team defense, pretty much from Day 1. These guys finally grew up. Though they haven’t quite maintained their strong early-season standard, they sit in the top half of the NHL in scoring chances against and expected goals against per 60 at 5-on-5. All-world blueliner Jake Sanderson, a truly magical skater, is the most impactful defensive player on either team in this series. Per NHL EDGE, the only defenseman with more speed bursts of 22 mph or more than Sanderson this season is Mr. Cale Makar. A total of 59 defense pairs have played 500 or more minutes together in the NHL this season, and only one duo allows fewer expected goals against per 60 than Sanderson and Artem Zub. Sanderson is a strong bet to lead all players in average ice time as long as he’s playing this postseason. He and Zub will be tasked with shutting down the Matthews/Marner line.
On the flip side: consider that Ottawa’s defense as a team grades out middle of the pack despite Sanderson and Zub sitting at the top, and what does that tell you about the rest of Ottawa’s group? Berube will surely use his last change trying to match his top six forwards against the Sens’ second and third pairs. They did recently get Nick Jensen back from injury; he can stabilize the second pair alongside Thomas Chabot.
On the whole, the Sens appear to have a slight edge in defensive play, but that disappears if anything happens to Sanderson. He’s as important as any player in this series.
Goaltending
The last time Toronto had truly reliable goaltending in the playoffs…it was facing the Senators, with Hall of Famer Ed Belfour between the pipes, more than two decades ago. Has Toronto finally recaptured the crease magic? Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll have been a revelation, combining to help the Leafs sit third in the NHL in team save percentage, their highest rank of the salary-cap era. It’s clear they have two great options in the crease, but it’s a matter of choosing the right one. Stolarz has been the better, more consistent netminder most of the year; among goalies with more than 30 games played, he leads the NHL in goals saved above expected per 60, topping even Vezina Trophy shoo-in Connor Hellebuyck. But Woll sits seventh in that same stat and, unlike Stolarz, has started playoff games; Woll was spectacular against Boston last spring before getting hurt and missing the deciding Game 7. As a tandem, the pair have started a combined four career playoff games, but Toronto is in good hands if just one of them carries over his regular-season brilliance.
And the Leafs will need that to happen: because they will face a Vezina Trophy winner in Round 1 of the playoffs for the eighth time in nine postseasons of the Matthews/Marner era. Linus Ullmark ceded the crease to Jeremy Swayman last spring but was solid in his one start against Toronto in Round 1. He went 2-0 with a .960 SV% and a shutout against the Leafs this season. He brings a galvanizing, charismatic dressing room presence that belies the aloof goalie stereotype and has played a big role helping Ottawa find its confidence this season. That said: Ullmark hasn’t proven himself to be a playoff performer yet. He lost six of nine decisions and carried an .887 SV% across his three postseasons as a Bruin. As a Vezina-winning talent who can steal games, he certainly doesn’t put Ottawa at a disadvantage, but this goaltending matchup feels pretty even.
Injuries
Ekman-Larsson is banged up, but the 2024 Stanley Cup winner is likely back in time for Game 1. Max Pacioretty would augment the top nine and perhaps push the defensively iffy Nick Robertson out of the lineup should Pacioretty be ready. The injury to watch is Jake McCabe’s. He forms one half of Toronto’s key shutdown pair with Tanev. It would be a major blow if he isn’t ready for Game 1, and it’s trending that way. Checking center David Kampf is battling an upper-body injury. He’s a fourth-liner but has stepped up his game in the playoffs. As for hulking D-man Jani Hakanpaa: he could return from his chronic knee injury, but it’s risky to throw him into a playoff series cold when he hasn’t played an NHL game since Nov. 16.
On Ottawa’s side: we can’t say if he’s 100 percent – just like Matthews – but captain Tkachuk will be in there for Game 1. Greig and veteran winger David Perron missed some time in April but were mostly just being rested to heal up minor ailments and should be OK.
Intangibles
The Leafs were the better team this season. They have the better team on paper. Their core is about to compete in a ninth consecutive postseason, the longest active streak in the NHL. But will that work for them or against them? All the pressure is on the Leafs, particularly with Marner and Tavares set to walk as UFAs and team president Brendan Shanahan’s contract expiring. Marner in particular could decide this series for better or worse. He’s a heart-and-soul superstar in the regular season, playing massive minutes in all situations, but he has no goals and five points in 16 games across Games 5, 6 and 7 of a playoff series in the past five years. His milk carton routine must end for Toronto to finally make a long spring run.
The Sens’ top young players, from Tkachuk to Sanderson to Stutzle to Drake Batherson to Dylan Cozens, are experiencing playoff hockey for the first time, and that also could work for or against them. No pressure, yes, but also no real sense of what it feels like to play in the heightened state that is a playoff series.
Series Prediction
We should see endless drama and physicality from start to finish in this series. It’s what these two teams bring when they face each other. Canadian Tire Centre should also offer an raucous atmosphere (with fans of both teams present!) hosting its first playoff contests in eight years. I fully expect Ottawa to put multiple scares in Toronto, perhaps even winning the first game. But, remember, the Leafs were one goal away from beating Boston last year despite (a) starting Ilya Samsonov in goal for multiple games and (b) missing Nylander and Matthews for multiple games. They’re built better and deeper for sustained success this year and truly have no excuse to lose to Ottawa. It’ll be a competitive series, but the superior team will prevail.
Maple Leafs in six games.
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POST SPONSORED BY bet365
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