Dallas Stars: 2nd in Central Division, 106 points*

Colorado Avalanche: 3rd in Central Division, 102 points

*one game remaining

Schedule (ET)

TBD

The Skinny

The 2 vs. 3 playoff format has its share of criticisms. It’s been called repetitive. Anticlimactic. Arbitrary. The worst thing to happen to Toronto since the Kerry Fraser no-call in ‘93.

For neutrals, though, 2 vs. 3 matchups often guarantee marquee, must-see TV in the first round. This is one of those times.

Dallas, desperate to get over the hump after consecutive Conference Final failures, versus Colorado, a sleeping giant that has assembled its deepest, scariest roster since 2022’s Cup triumph.

Then, there are the characters. Mikko Rantanen (five goals, 18 points in 19 GP for Dallas) claims Colorado blindsided him and, after a trade to the East Coast didn’t take, has a chance to pay them back in kind far sooner than anyone would have expected.

He’s not the only player this matchup will mean a little more to. Dallas’s Matt Duchene would love to twist the knife once more into a city that already hates him. Avs’ winger Valeri Nichushkin (21 goals in 43 GP) can wash away ignominious exits from the past two post-seasons while sticking it to his old team.

Did I mention it’s a rematch? This series, made possible by the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets’ wire-to-wire dominance of the Central, is appointment viewing. Buckle up.

Head to Head

Dallas: 1-1-1
Colorado: 2-1

Dallas played the Avalanche three times this season, once during each stage of its rival’s major in-season roster shakeup: in November against the Avs’ injury-hit early-season lineup; in January after Colorado’s goaltending overhaul; and in March after the Stars added Rantanen and the Avalanche traded for Brock Nelson, Charlie Coyle, and Ryan Lindgren.

Duchene (two goals and four points) and Wyatt Johnston (five assists) got in the scoring column for the Stars during all three contests, while goalie Jake Oettinger (1-0-1, 3.48 GAA, .896 SV%) picked up at least a loser point in both his starts despite his teammates being badly outshot (67-45).

If MacKinnon was subdued against Dallas (three assists), Makar was anything but. He torched the Stars for three goals and seven points, including an overtime winner in the series finale. Presumptive Game 1 starter Mackenzie Blackwood didn’t face Dallas this season. Former Star Scott Wedgewood manned the cage for both matchups after the duo arrived in separate early-season trades.

Top Five Scorers

Dallas

Matt Duchene, 81 points
Jason Robertson, 80 points
Wyatt Johnston, 70 points
Roope Hintz, 66 points
Thomas Harley, 50 points

Colorado

Nathan MacKinnon, 116 points
Cale Makar, 92 points
Artturi Lehkonen, 45 points
Devon Toews, 44 points
Jonathan Drouin, 37 points

X-Factor

No one ever doubted Gabriel Landeskog’s toughness. The captain’s competitiveness guaranteed he’d tackle rehab from a relatively unprecedented cartilage transplant surgery head-on. After his recovery began to be measured in years, not months, it was still fair to wonder whether it’d end on NHL ice or injury-induced retirement.

‘Landy’ answered that question emphatically over the weekend. On Saturday, Landskog chipped in with a goal (on a characteristic net-front tip) and an assist for the Colorado Eagles in his second-ever AHL game. All signs point towards a return to the Avalanche lineup, with whom Landeskog skated throughout March, in time for the first round.

For Colorado, that’s more than just a moral victory. Landeskog won’t upset the Avs’ potent mix of top-six wingers, not until coach Jared Bednar knows what he’s getting out of the veteran, but even a diminished version of the 248-goal power forward will provide a boost to the club’s forward depth.

Assuming Joel Kiviranta is the odd man out of Bednar’s top nine, a third line of Landeskog, Coyle (13 points in 19 GP for COL), and Ross Colton (16 goals in 61 GP) would go a long way toward neutralizing Dallas’s perceived advantage in the bottom six. That’s a big, skilled trio that could help seize momentum in tight games in the corners and on the scoresheet.

Offense

Rantanen, a stud playoff performer (101 points in 81 GP), will need to be the focal point of the Stars’ high-powered, third-ranked scoring offense against his old club. Last year, talented linemates Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz exploited Colorado’s worn-down top players (including Rantanen himself) to pile up the points (11 assists between them), but combined for just a single goal.

With veteran sniper Tyler Seguin and star defenseman Miro Heiskanen, who combined for seven of the Stars’ 22 tallies in the 2024 series, jammed up ahead of Game 1, DeBoer needs his new-look top unit to brush up on its finishing against an improved Colorado D.

It’s not as though they have to go it alone, though. Duchene is quietly the team’s top point producer and has developed an excellent rapport with power forward Mason Marchment (21 G, 46 P in 61 GP) in two seasons with the Stars. If Seguin isn’t ready to rejoin them on the second line, Mikael Granlund has been a more than adequate stand-in (7 G, 21 P in 29 GP for DAL).

Johnston, nominally the third-line center between vets Jamie Benn and Evgenii Dadonov, leads Dallas forwards in average ice time by nearly a minute (18:55) and is second only to Robertson in goals (33). At the same time, Thomas Harley has potted an impressive 15 even-strength tallies from the blue line. That’s tied for second with Zach Werenski, and only behind, you guessed it, Makar.

Dallas boasts an impressive array of weapons, but the disparity in the “top-five scorers” category is a bit misleading; they have just five more goals than Colorado on the season. Artturi Lehkonen, Valeri Nichushkin, and Jonathan Drouin have all had their numbers skewed by lengthy absences. Martin Necas, acquired in the Rantanen deal, is technically eighth among Colorado scorers (28 points in 30 GP for COL) despite an 83-point season overall.

All four wingers have plenty of chemistry with MacKinnon. Before the Avalanche began sitting all their players, Bednar seemed to settle on sticking the Hart Trophy winner between Russian sniper Nichushkin and crafty playmaker Drouin. That lineup separated MacKinnon’s blistering footspeed from that of Necas, who ranks in the 99th percentile of every speed stat tracked by NHL EDGE, as the Czech provided a rush threat on Brock Nelson’s second unit.

If things get hairy during Colorado’s tilt with the Stars, expect MacKinnon and Necas to reunite. Their explosive chemistry at even strength (>64% share of goals, expected goals, and high-danger chances) is matched only on the power play, which has seen a sharp uptick in production since Necas replaced Rantanen (NHL-best 32.1% since Jan. 24).

Jonathan Drouin finishes off the gorgeous setup from MacKinnon, Necas, and Lehkonen for a power play goal!#GoAvsGo pic.twitter.com/ShrIm5fqeU
— Hockey Daily 365 l NHL Highlights & News (@HockeyDaily365) March 7, 2025

Then there’s Makar, on the cusp of a second Norris Trophy after his third season of 86+ points and just the second 30-goal season of any defenseman (Mike Green) in the past 30 seasons. If that’s not ridiculous enough, Makar has scored at nearly a 24-goal, 89-point pace per 82 games during his playoff career, a rate that factors in his first 10 games as a pro in 2019.

Defense

When Mark Stone chop-blocked Miro Heiskanen on Jan. 29, Dallas was a top-eight team by share of shot attempts, scoring chances, and expected goals at five-on-five. If the Stars didn’t already appreciate what Heiskanen, the best player on the ice in last year’s series against the Avalanche (28:43 ATOI, 8 P against COL in 2024), meant to their team then, they sure do now. Since the Finn’s injury, they’re 30th in shot attempt share, 22nd in scoring chance share, and 29th in expected goal share.

Dallas has managed the sixth-best points % since the injury thanks to hot shooting and excellent goaltending (second in PDO, shooting % + SV%), but the results under the hood are ugly. Ilya Lyubushkin is best suited as a No. 4 or 5 defenseman but has used his simple, responsible game to stay above water with the help of two-way dynamo Thomas Harley. It’s only downhill from there.

Cody Ceci is a big, mobile righty who can do a job when he’s not given too much responsibility. The problem? He’s had too much responsibility for virtually his entire career. That hasn’t changed in Dallas, where, despite a pretty +16 rating, Ceci is drowning alongside the usually dependable Esa Lindell. Their grisly 39.81% expected goal share is the third-worst in the NHL among units that have shared the ice for 300+ minutes.

At least the Dallas PK, ranked third on the season, has only dipped to 13th sans Heiskanen. Any lower, and they’d be sitting ducks for a nightmare-inducing Avs’ power play.

Twelve months ago, you’d think a world where the Avalanche had a clear-cut defensive advantage over the Stars would need an intro from Rod Serling. It’s the world we live in now, though. Only four teams have been stingier than Colorado since they traded for Wedgewood on Nov. 30.

Devon Toews rarely gets noticed beside Makar, a good indication he’s doing his job. The smooth-skating lefty is first among all players in rating (178) and 14th among defensemen in points (232) since he arrived in Colorado. Toews leads the Avalanche penalty kill, the second-best in the NHL since they sorted out their crease (83.6%), in ice time, and led Team Canada in total ice time at the Four Nations Faceoff. Not bad for a sidekick.

Sam Malinski and longtime Av Sam Girard, the only Colorado blue-liners to appear in over 70 games other than Toews and Makar, have been the glue holding the rest of the defense together. Malinski, a former undrafted free agent out of Cornell, has been a pleasant surprise for a team that makes precious few first-round selections. Since the Four Nations break, he’s come on strong, averaging over 17 minutes a night and logging a +9 rating.

The two Sams have made it work with several partners, including one another; they’re winning their shared minutes 16-7 with break-even metrics. If they stick together for the playoffs, a gritty veteran duo of Josh Manson and Ryan Lindgren (53.35% of expected goals in five GP as a pair) will soak up defensive zone starts. Can either man stay healthy over a 25-game grind? As much as the fans in Denver love Erik Johnson, they aren’t eager to see the 36-year-old on the ice with the season on the line.

Goaltending

It’s strength versus strength between the pipes, but Dallas’s Jake Oettinger is out to a 45-0 playoff start lead over Avalanche counterpart Mackenzie Blackwood. After a shaky 2023 postseason leaked into the 2023-24 campaign, “Otter” rediscovered his game in last year’s playoffs and hasn’t looked back.

Oettinger is (probably) back on the Vezina ballot after a 36-win season. He posted ridiculous numbers (.947 SV%) during a recent six-game win streak preceding Dallas’s ugly skid. DeBoer will need to rely on the American more than he’d like, but the important thing is that he can rely on him.

JAKE OETTINGER!! 😱 😱

SAVE OF THE YEAR CANDIDATE!! pic.twitter.com/T54UVqrMhs
— NHL (@NHL) January 25, 2025

Blackwood will start opposite Oettinger for the Avalanche, who liked him so much in his first two weeks with the team that they extended him through 2030. So far, they haven’t had cause to regret that decision (2.33 GAA, .913 SV% for COL).

Blackwood is a big, mobile puck stopper whose post-to-post mobility is well suited to an Avs’ team that can be susceptible to the odd-man rush. He’s in an ill-timed funk to end the season (1-4, 3.5 GAA, .878 SV%), but a change now would be an unnecessary panic move; Bednar will stick with who brought him to the dance.

In the “Best Backups” Jeopardy category, veterans Casey DeSmith (14-8-2, 2.63 GAA, .913 SV%) and Wedgewood (13-4-1, 1.99 GAA, .917 SV% for COL) have been excellent in spot duty. Something will have to go very wrong for either man to start this postseason, but they’ve earned the trust of their respective organizations.

Injuries

Dallas is expecting Seguin back any day now from the hip surgery that knocked him out in December. Defenseman Nils Lundkvist had a season-ending procedure in February. Marchment, who has an unfortunate habit of catching pucks with his face, is sick but otherwise fine.

Heiskanen, meanwhile, went from doubtful for the first round to merely out for Game 1. It’s hard to tell what’s an actual update, what’s a smokescreen to throw off Colorado, and what’s a lie GM Jim Nill is telling himself to avoid despair. Nothing will be certain until No. 4 in green actually hits the ice.

The Avalanche’s injury list might be long enough to qualify as a manifesto. Most entries are either rest or minor injuries that amount to rest.

As for the Avs with injuries that preceded April 12’s barrage of new additions to the report: Colton missed four straight with a mystery ailment to close out the season; Manson was designated as out for 3-4 weeks with an upper-body injury a little over four weeks ago; Drouin has been out nearly two weeks with a lower-body knock; and Landeskog is being evaluated for game-readiness by team staff. Until the organization says otherwise, the assumption is they’re all available.

Intangibles

Where does Dallas go next if the Avalanche, a team they choked out without much difficulty last season, sends them home in Round 1? The Stars are built to win championships. After consecutive 10-win postseasons, no other outcome would constitute a success.

Next season, they’ll lose nearly $20 million in cap space from Rantanen, Johnston, and Oettinger’s extensions. There’s no guarantee Duchene will take a third straight discount to chase a Cup. In other words, it will never get this good again. No matter who the Stars are playing, or who they’re missing, bowing out early with this collection of talent would have consequences. If their historic collapse against Vancouver and end-of-season slide are anything to go by, the room is feeling the pressure.

The Avalanche are in a similar predicament. A team with two of the five best players in hockey is coming off back-to-back abortive postseason runs. MacFarland emptied the bucket to ensure that doesn’t happen again, but Drouin, Nelson, and Lindgren are all playing at a heavily discounted rate on expiring contracts.

As great as it will be to see Landeskog back in burgundy, his $7-million cap hit looms like a ticking time bomb for a team that has spent every dollar it has and some that it doesn’t. Any relief the rising cap will provide will be erased by Makar’s next contract in 2027. If they want a fourth banner, now is the time to claim it.

Series Prediction

Without Heiskanen, or at least without a fully healthy Heiskanen, Dallas can choose between sitting back on their heels and waiting to get shredded or trying to beat the Avalanche in a shootout. Neither seems like an attractive option.

Oettinger should be able to steal a game or two at home, but, as with his heroics against the Flames in 2022, he’ll only be delaying the inevitable.

Avalanche in six games.