Winnipeg Jets: 1^st in Central Division, 116 points
St. Louis Blues: 2^nd Western Conference Wild Card, 96 points

Schedule (ET)

Date	Game	Time ET
Saturday, April 19	1. St. Louis at Winnipeg	6:00 p.m.
Monday, April 21	2. St. Louis at Winnipeg	7:30 p.m.
Thursday, April 24	3. Winnipeg at St. Louis	9:30 p.m.
Sunday, April 27	4. Winnipeg at St. Louis	1 p.m
*Wednesday, April 30	5. St. Louis at Winnipeg	TBD
*Friday, May 2	6. Winnipeg at St. Louis	TBD
*Sunday, May 4	7. St. Louis at Winnipeg	TBD

The Skinny

The only other time these two met in the playoffs, the Jets were in the midst of one of their better stretches of play in their franchise history, while the Blues managed to get into the playoffs after a slow start and a midseason coaching change. The Jets didn’t make too much noise and started to hit a decline, while the Blues went on to win the Stanley Cup.

I wouldn’t exactly hold my breath on that happening this time around. When you give a very barebones comparison of the situations, they sound similar, but that’s not quite the case when you break it down more.

The Jets exploded with one of the hottest starts in NHL history, winning 15 of their first 16 game. They slowed down a bit after that, maintaining a 41-21-4 record the rest of the way, but they were always in the race for the Presidents’ Trophy, which they wound up winning. They got career years from Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers and Gabriel Vilardi, and another Vezina-worthy season from Connor Hellebuyck. It was just about as perfect of a season as you could get.

In almost perfect antithesis, the Blues probably had one of the hottest finishes to the season. Their start was middling at best, and a 9-12-1 start got Drew Bannister fired shortly after St. Louis had removed his interim tag. Well, that and the fact that Jim Montgomery had become available. That was the right choice, as the Blues went 34-18-7, including a league-best 19-4-3 since the 4 Nations Face-Off break, to get the final playoff spot.

The Jets are very much the favourites in the series, but they also bear the most weight. They’ve disappointed in the playoffs time and time again, and there’s only so many times they can get away with it. The Blues are playing with house money and have nothing to prove quite yet, outside of whether or not they belong here.

Will the Jets finally live up to the hype and perform in the playoffs? Or will the Blues’ late-season run live on for a couple more weeks?

Head-to-Head

Winnipeg: 3-1-0
St. Louis: 1-2-1

The head-to-head records between the Jets and Blues is slightly misleading. While Winnipeg took three of the four games, two of them were close one-goal games, and the other was a 3-1 win with an empty net goal (read: a one-goal game). Meanwhile, the Blues lone win was a 4-1 win where they were up 3-0 early in the third. So, the Jets have barely snuck by the Blues in their wins, while the Blues had a much more decisive victory.

The Jets’ first win and the Blues’ lone victory came early on in the season, while win number two for Winnipeg was a couple of weeks before the trade deadline, and the third win was last week – the one that actually ended the Blues’ 12-game win streak.

Top Five Scorers

Winnipeg

Kyle Connor, 97 points
Mark Scheifele, 87 points
Nikolaj Ehlers, 63 points
Josh Morrissey, 62 points
Gabriel Vilardi, 61 points

St. Louis

Robert Thomas, 81 points
Jordan Kyrou, 70 points
Dylan Holloway, 63 points
Pavel Buchnevich, 57 points
Brayden Schenn, 50 points

X-Factor

The last time we got any sort of meaningful hockey was the championship game between Canada and the United States. After winning the round-robin match, the US looked daunting, especially with Hellebuyck in net. But despite the doubts of running with Jordan Binnington, Canada pulled off the overtime victory, largely in part due to Binnington pulling one hell of a performance out of his hat, particularly in that overtime frame, reminding the hockey world why he has a Stanley Cup ring.

So once again, it’ll be Hellebuyck and Binnington standing across the ice from each other, and once again, Hellebuyck’s team will be the favourite. If the Blues have any chance of winning this series, it’s going to be because Binnington steps up again and matches the performance of Hellebuyck.

Offense

If there’s an aspect of the Jets’ game that felt slightly unsustainable, it was that their offense outperformed their chance generation for a good portion of the season. But that actually improved in the final couple of months in the season, and as a result, they have the eighth-best 5v5 expected goals for per 60 (2.66) and 12th-best power play xGF/60 (9.23) to go along with their goals for per game that’s tied for third (3.35) and their league-leading power play (28.9%). There’s still a slight difference, but it’s much better than where it was at the start of the season, and they have the talent to justify the overperformance.

That talent starts with the five players that make up the Jets’ top power play unit and drive their offense. Connor led the way with 97 points, Scheifele wasn’t far behind with 87, and Vilardi’s really come out of his shell on that top line with 61 points (in 71 games too). Ehlers also had a great season with 63 points in just 69 games, while Josh Morrissey continues to be one of the league’s most productive defensemen with 62 points. Morrissey was the only one of the five to not to set a career-high total this season.

A driving force of the Jets’ early season success was their depth scoring, as it felt like everyone was scoring for them. That has since teetered off, although they still finished with great totals. Cole Perfetti continues to blossom with 50 points, while Vladislav Namestnikov, Nino Niederreiter, Adam Lowry and Alex Iafallo all hit the 30 point mark. Neal Pionk was the only other defenseman to get more than 20 points with his 39, although Dylan Samberg, Dylan DeMelo, Colin Miller and Logan Stanley all at least got 10 points.

That offense for the Jets will be a huge advantage for the them, because offense certainly hasn’t been the Blues’ game. The Blues had the 14th-best goals per game (3.05) and the 16th-best PP% (22.1%), and it wasn’t any better under the hood with the 28th-best 5v5 xGF/60 (2.3) and the 19th-best PP xGF/60 (8.38). Their goals for per game does sit fifth in the league (3.3) since they hired Montgomery, but everything else has stayed relatively the same, with that number mostly being inflated by the second-highest 5v5 shooting percentage in the league in that span (10.54%).

The Blues don’t have the high-end talent like the Jets do with Connor and Scheifele, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have any talent either. Robert Thomas continues to be one of the more underrated centers in the league, and he was great again this season with 81 points in 70 games. Jordan Kyrou has also been a productive player for St. Louis with 70 points, while the addition of Dylan Holloway has been a game-changer for their depth, as he finished the year with 63 points before his injury. Pavel Buchnevich and Brayden Schenn also had solid seasons with 57 and 50 points each.

Beyond them, though, the Blues don’t have a lot left to offer in terms of depth. Jake Neighbours certainly has the upside to be a difference maker with his 46 points, and Zack Bolduc had a solid rookie campaign with 19 goals and 36 points, but those are the only other forwards with more than 20 points. They did get a lot of production on their back end though, as Cam Fowler had 40 points (36 after he was dealt to St. Louis), Colton Parayko and Justin Faulk hit the 30-point mark, and the Blues’ other offer sheet addition in Philip Broberg was just shy with 29 points (in 68 games).

Overall, it’s a bit of a mismatch for the Blues here. While their forward group is solid, their big horses aren’t of the same caliber as the Jets’ and the Jets also boast the better depth. That said, while the Blues don’t have a Morrissey, they do have better offensive depth from their blueline.

Defense

As good as the Jets’ offense is, their defensive game has really driven their success, and it’s not just because of Connor Hellebuyck. Sure, Hellebuyck was a big reason why the team finished first in the league in goals against per game (2.32) for the second-straight season, but the team in front of him was also excellent, with the sixth-best 5v5 expected goals against per 60 (2.34). If Winnipeg did have one minor blemish, it was on the penalty kill, as it only ranked 13th (79.4%) and their shorthanded 5v5 xGA/60 was only tied for 17th (8.47).

It helps that, for the most part, the Jets’ top players aren’t defensive enigmas like they have been in past seasons. Scheifele was the only player on their top line that had a negative defensive goals above replacement (-0.4), while Vilardi (1.9), Connor (1), and Ehlers (0.6) had positive impacts. In fact, they only had two players who had a significant negative defensive impact in Haydn Fleury (-1.9) and Mason Appleton (-2.4).

The Jets’ blueline is defensively strong, almost entirely across the board. They finished the season with five defensemen with defensive GARs above two, and all of them regulars in Samberg (6.7), Miller (6.2), Demelo (4.8), Morrissey (2.2), and Pionk (2.2). They also had a few forwards in that range in David Gustafsson (3.1), Iafallo (2.9) and Perfetti (2), but the fact that most of their blueline is that good defensively is scary for other teams.

That’s a shame for the Blues, because if there’s one part of their game that is really good and would have been the driving force of an upset, it’s their elite defensive game. And yet, the Jets are just as good there. At the very least, it’s still what St. Louis can use to keep games close. Their numbers on the season as a whole are good, as they were tied for 12th in goals against per game (2.82) and seventh in 5v5 xGA/60 (2.35). But, they saw significant improvement under Montgomery, jumping to seventh (2.62) and fourth (2.26), respectively. Their penalty kill, however, has struggled with or without Montgomery. They finished the season tied for 27th in PK% (74.2%) and 24th in SH xGA/60 (8.99).

The Blues’ strong defensive game was also helped mainly by the Holloway and Broberg additions over the summer, as the two were second (4.5) and tied for third (4) in defensive GAR this season. Rookie Bolduc was also a huge addition, ranking sixth (2.2). On top of that, Oskar Sundqvist (6.2), Mathieu Joseph (4) and Alexei Toropchenko (2.8) all had great years defensively up front, while Fowler (3.8) and Parayko (2.2) were excellent on the back end.

St. Louis isn’t entirely in the clear, though, as they do have a few players who struggle defensively, worse than anyone on the Jets. What makes it worse is that two come from their top six in Thomas (-4.4 defensive GAR) and Buchnevich (-6.4). That should be easy to shelter, but it could be one way the Jets take advantage here. Ryan Suter also struggled with a -3.3 defensive GAR on St. Louis’ blueline.

Overall, expect tight, defensive hockey from both teams in this series. The Jets’ best case scenario is that their opponent’s biggest strength is also theirs, especially when they have a clear advantage in every other aspect.

Goaltending

There may not be a more impactful player this season than what Hellebuyck brings to the table in net for the Jets. If anyone had any doubts that he was the best goalie in the league, he silenced them this season with another Vezina trophy-caliber performance. Only Anthony Stolarz had a higher save percentage among regular starters than Hellebuyck’s .925, and Hellebuyck played twice as many games. He pulls himself from the rest of the field in goals saved above expected, as he finished the season at 49.48, almost 20 more than the second-placed Stolarz at 31.2.

But the one stain on Hellebuyck’s resume has been his postseason performance as of late. Since 2023, his .878 SV% in the playoffs is the worst among goalies with 10 starts, while his -7.97 GSAx is the second-worst only to Vitek Vanecek’s -8.08. There are some concerns that it’s due to the fatigue of playing 60+ games a season, and the Jets didn’t do anything to alleviate those concerns by starting him in 63 games this year. Should he really struggle again, the Jets have Eric Comrie, who’s played well with a .914 SV% and +4.78 GSAx, but he hasn’t done that with a starter’s workload. This is Hellebuyck’s cross to bear, and the Jets’ fate all depends on how he does this time around.

For the Blues, they’ll have Jordan Binnington in net, who’s had a solid season with a .900 SV% and 7.36 GSAx. However, since backstopping Canada to a win in 4 Nations, he’s been much better for St. Louis as well with a .910 SV% and 7.85 GSAx. Not Hellebuyck good, but good enough to get them to the playoffs. If anything, Binnington is almost the antichrist to Hellebuyck, as he’s had an inconsistent career, but he seems to have that extra gear to lock in in the big moments, as seen by his Stanley Cup and 4 Nations win. Backing him up is Joel Hofer, who’s been a bit more inconsistent with a .904 SV% and -1.54 GSAx.

Injuries

At this point in time, the only two Jets’ players that might be in doubt for the start of the series due to injuries is Ehlers and Vilardi. Ehlers is week-to-week after colliding with an official last Saturday and will for sure be missing the start of the playoffs, and may possibly not even see the entire first round at all. Vilardi is a bit more of a mystery, as he has missed more than three weeks with an upper-body injury but is currently day-to-day. He could start in Game 1, or he could miss the series, who knows. But Winnipeg will definitely be hurting if they’re without two of their top four forwards for most of this series.

There’s really only one Blues player whose status is up in the air for this series, and that’s Holloway. After getting hit into the boards almost two weeks ago, he hasn’t played for St. Louis and is considered week-to-week. Whether that means only a couple weeks and he’s back for Game 1 or it’s 3-4 weeks and he may not even play in this series remains to be seen. Thomas left Tuesday’s game with an injury, but that was later confirmed to be precautionary. And then there’s Torey Krug, who’s missed the entire season after undergoing ankle surgery, and isn’t expected to play at any point in the playoffs, or maybe even his career.

Intangibles

While the Toronto Maple Leafs and their current core get the most flak for their lack of performance in the playoffs, the Jets aren’t too far behind. Since their 2018 run, they have just one playoff series win, a sweep of the Edmonton Oilers in the shortened 2020-21 season only to be swept by the Montreal Canadiens right after. The past two seasons have particularly seen them get off to a hot start, cool down in the second half, and then go out with a whimper in the first round. They improved on the first step, avoided the second step, and now they need to close it out and avoid the third as well.

Along with that, both Ehlers and Pionk’s contracts are up at the end of the season. While Pionk could return well, it’s starting to feel like Ehlers is playing last games as a Jet. Even if they both return, it won’t be at a combined $11.875 million price tag. The time for the Jets to win is now before they see their depth shift around one way or another.

For the Blues, the stakes are quite low. The 2019 championship is still close enough that there isn’t this city-wide panic to win again. They’re very clearly in the start of a new window of contention built around a core of Thomas, Kyrou, Buchnevich, Neighbors, Holloway and Broberg. And they probably didn’t even expect to be here for most of the season. This playoff run is found money for them, and that mindset means there’s no pressure for them, which allows them to catch a Jets team with all the pressure by surprise.

If there are any stakes at all, it might be that the Blues want to get 40-year-old Ryan Suter a ring. Who knows how many more seasons he has left in him, and considering he’s already been bought out twice, it’s quite clear that the game is already passing him by. There are a few other veterans without a Stanley Cup like Cam Fowler, Nick Leddy, Justin Faulk, and Radek Faksa, but they still have quite a few years left in them.

Series Pick

Anyone who followed the Daily Faceoff power rankings all season knows that I had the Jets pegged as frauds. The underlying numbers had them pegged as a middling, not great team, and if you had told me then that they were going to face a team with a strong defensive game like the Blues, I would have maybe considered an upset here.

But the Jets managed to improve on their metrics and are now a Stanley Cup contender on merit. We’ll see how they fare against other teams of their caliber, but even if there’s an avenue for the Blues to upset them, I expect Winnipeg to not have too many problems. If they do, then this core deserves any criticism tossed their way.

Jets in five games.

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