<p>After a short but intense blast of international hockey, the 4 Nations Face-Off’s final stage is set.</p>



<p>The rivalries, pace of play and the intensity have smashed the tournament’s originally modest expectations. But as we prepare for tomorrow’s marquee matchup between <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/team-united-states/line-combinations">USA</a> and <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/team-canada/line-combinations">Canada</a>, we’re looking to the past to see what we can learn about the future.</p>



<p>We’ve reviewed the best-on-best event finals spanning three decades — which covers 11 games given the best-of-three format played at the 1996 and 2016 World Cups. With the caveat that the exclusivity of these events limits the sample size, the history of iconic clashes reveals many consistent themes. From the results, we’re offering <strong>six intriguing takeaways to set up Thursday’s winner-take-all action.</strong></p>



<p>First, a summary of the last five Olympic gold medal games and three World Cup finals.</p><div class="injected-ad injected-video" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="0" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="136"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">🏆 Best-on-Best Championship History, Since 1996</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Year</strong></td><td><strong>Game</strong></td><td><strong>Winner</strong></td><td><strong>Score</strong></td><td><strong>Loser</strong></td><td><strong>Score</strong></td><td><strong>Notes</strong></td></tr><tr><td>1996 World Cup</td><td>Game 1</td><td>Canada</td><td>4</td><td>USA</td><td>3</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>1996 World Cup</td><td>Game 2</td><td>USA</td><td>5</td><td>Canada</td><td>2</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>1996 World Cup</td><td>Game 3</td><td><strong>USA</strong></td><td>5</td><td>Canada</td><td>2</td><td>Won series 2-1</td></tr><tr><td>1998 Olympics</td><td>Final</td><td><strong>Czechia</strong></td><td>1</td><td>Russia</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2002 Olympics</td><td>Final</td><td><strong>Canada</strong></td><td>5</td><td>USA</td><td>2</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2004 World Cup</td><td>Final</td><td><strong>Canada</strong></td><td>3</td><td>Finland</td><td>2</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2006 Olympics</td><td>Final</td><td><strong>Sweden</strong></td><td>3</td><td>Finland</td><td>2</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2010 Olympics</td><td>Final</td><td><strong>Canada</strong></td><td>3</td><td>USA</td><td>2</td><td>Overtime</td></tr><tr><td>2014 Olympics</td><td>Final</td><td><strong>Canada</strong></td><td>3</td><td>Sweden</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2016 World Cup</td><td>Game 1</td><td>Canada</td><td>3</td><td>Europe</td><td>1</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2016 World Cup</td><td>Game 2</td><td><strong>Canada</strong></td><td>2</td><td>Europe</td><td>1</td><td>Won series 2-0</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p></p>



<p>So, what can we learn when the best in the world meet for international bragging rights?</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">1️⃣ Teams that score first have a big edge.</h2>



<p>Scoring first has led to an 8-3 record in best-on-best finals. This checks as past tournament championships have been tightly contested. In fact, no team has come back from more than one goal down to win before. The three teams to survive allowing the game’s first goal? Canada erased Tony Amonte’s opener in Salt Lake City. Sweden wasn’t phased after Kimmo Timonen drew first blood in Turin. And despite trailing 1-0 for more than 50 minutes in Game 2 of the 2016 World Cup, Canada beat Europe in regulation. That’s it.</p>



<p><strong>Whom it favors:</strong> Whichever team scores first, of course. While the team that opened the scoring went 0-3 in USA’s 4 Nations round-robin games, ‘first goal wins’ has proven true in 73% of these final games.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="1" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="144"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">2️⃣ The outcome is likely to still be wide open in the final five minutes. </h2>



<p>Expect a great hockey game. Or at least a close one. All but two of the past 11 games were within a single shot at some point in the last five minutes. And the two matches that weren’t down to the wire were hardly blowouts. Chris Kunitz put Canada up 3-0 in Sochi with 10:56 remaining, while Patrice Bergeron bumped Canada’s lead to 3-1 in with 10:36 on the clock in 2016’s Game 1 win. Every other championship game was a nail biter. Please don’t leave your couch groove until Thursday’s game is official.</p>



<p><strong>Whom it favors:</strong> The fans. Think of your favorite international hockey memories? Amonte’s late go-ahead goal in 1996. Jarome Iginla’s insurance marker in Salt Lake City. Nicklas Lidstrom’s ice-breaker in Turin. Sidney Crosby’s golden goal. Best-on-best has delivered big moments by consistently offering close games.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="2" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="139"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">3️⃣ Championship games have been very low scoring.</h2>



<p>The last eight deciding games have averaged just 4.5 <em>total</em> goals. Incredibly, the winning team hasn’t topped three goals in any of the last five times we tuned in for best-on-best finals — 3-2, 3-2, 3-2 (in overtime), 3-0, and 2-1 were the scores. Going back to USA’s 1996 crown, no team has had more than three goals through 57 minutes of action. While anything is possible in one game, either team exploding offensively would break the mold of modern best-on-best history.</p>



<p><strong>Whom it favors:</strong> You’d expect the team with the steadier goalie — USA via Connor Hellebuyck — to win a low-scoring game more often than not. Which leads us to…</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">4️⃣ The team with the better goaltender almost always wins.</h2>



<p>While determining the better goaltender leaves some subjectivity, the team with the goaltender regarded as the stronger option at the time of the tournament went 7-1 by my count:</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="3" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="141"></div>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>1996:</strong> Yes — Mike Richter def. Curtis Joseph</li>



<li><strong>1998:</strong> Yes — Dominik Hasek def. Mikhail Shtalenkov</li>



<li><strong>2002: </strong>Yes — Martin Brodeur def. Mike Richter</li>



<li><strong>2004:</strong> Yes — Martin Brodeur def. Miikka Kiprusoff</li>



<li><strong>2006:</strong> Yes — Henrik Lundqvist def. Antero Niittymaki</li>



<li><strong>2010: <em>No</em></strong> — Roberto Luongo def. Ryan Miller</li>



<li><strong>2014:</strong> Yes — Carey Price def. Henrik Lundqvist</li>



<li><strong>2016:</strong> Yes — Carey Price def. Jaroslav Halak<br></li>
</ul>



<p></p>



<p>While Joseph had a better career than Richter, Cujo was curiously leaned on by Canada at a low point in his NHL journey. In 2010, Luongo had the Hall of Fame career but Miller was the <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/connor-crosby-auston-ovechkin-finding-past-player-matches-for-the-4-nations-biggest-superstars" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">world’s best goalie at the time</a> — USA’s loss remains the exception to the rule. And while some might take Lundqvist over Price in 2014, this was right as Price was entering the Beast Mode he’d enjoy for several years that yielded a Hart Trophy. Nitpicking aside, the better goaltender has dominated these finals.</p>



<p><strong>Whom it favors:</strong> USA, by a mile. With due respect to Jordan Binnington’s Game 7 Cup win in Boston, Hellebuyck has been the event’s only goalie that hasn’t generated daily national debate on who should start.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">5️⃣ The team with the biggest superstar almost always wins.</h2>



<p>Wait a minute! Who’s that sliding in our DMs? Well, it’s the Best Player in the Final™️ — Connor McDavid. Seems he doesn’t agree that the star goalie decides the outcome. It’s actually the star <em>forward</em>. And history supports this stance too. In the past, one team has often had both. Not this year.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="4" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="181"></div>



<p>Going back to the event’s point in time, we labeled the finalist’s best forward based on a mix of scoring rates, awards, and reputation. In less obvious cases, a two-headed monster was assigned. </p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>1996:</strong> <em><strong>No</strong></em> — Tkachuk/LeClair def. Sakic/Lindros</li>



<li><strong>1998:</strong> Yes — Jaromir Jagr def. Pavel Bure</li>



<li><strong>2002: </strong>Yes — Lemieux/Iginla def. Modano/Tkachuk</li>



<li><strong>2004:</strong> Yes — Lemieux/St. Louis def. Jokinen/Koivu</li>



<li><strong>2006:</strong> Yes — Daniel Alfredsson def. Teemu Selanne</li>



<li><strong>2010: </strong>Yes — Sidney Crosby def. Patrick Kane</li>



<li><strong>2014:</strong> Yes — Sidney Crosby def. Nicklas Backstrom</li>



<li><strong>2016:</strong> Yes — Sidney Crosby def. Anze Kopitar<br></li>
</ul>



<p></p>



<p>That’s 7-1 for star forwards as well. Only in 1996 did USA win with top forwards lower in the league’s hierarchy than its opponent’s.</p>



<p><strong>Whom it favors:</strong> Canada. McDavid (or Nathan MacKinnon, if you prefer the reigning Hart Trophy winner) wins this battle easily over whomever USA puts up (Auston Matthews overall, or Jack Eichel lately).</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">6️⃣ A little adversity has helped more often than not.</h2>



<p>While logic would suggest whichever team is rolling into a final will win, that’s not always been the case. Plenty of creaky or gut-checked rosters have emerged the winner in best-on-best events.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>In Nagano, Czechia had lost to Russia in the round-robin, but won the rematch for gold.</li>



<li>In Salt Lake City, Canada lost 5-2 to Sweden to open the Olympics and tied Czechia to go 1-1-1 in round-robin action. They would win gold over an undefeated American team.</li>



<li>In Turin, Finland was 7-0 ahead of the gold medal game, while Sweden had lost to Slovakia and Russia — it didn’t matter in the end.</li>



<li>In Vancouver, Canada’s early loss to USA (and narrow shootout win against Switzerland) created doubt, yet the group ultimately delivered on home soil.</li>



<li>In Sochi, the narrative is that Canada coasted to gold, but not without anxious moments — a 3-1 win vs. Norway, an OT win against Finland and a sleepy 2-1 quarter-final against Latvia. Sweden had gone 5-0.<br></li>
</ul>



<p></p>



<p><strong>Whom it favors:</strong> Pick your poison. USA has been stress-free, securing their finals spot with ease. Each of the past three World Cup winners went undefeated, so this bodes well. But at all five Olympics, early losses or some form of adversity helped shape the eventual champs. Having been humbled on home ice Saturday and winning the only must-win game of the event on Monday, Canada is the more battle-tested group.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="5" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="195"></div>



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<p>Visit&nbsp;<a href="http://www.adjustedhockey.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">adjustedhockey.com</a>; data from&nbsp;<a href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Hockey-Reference</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.quanthockey.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">QuantHockey.com</a>; international box scores from <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_hockey_at_the_1998_Winter_Olympics_%E2%80%93_Men%27s_tournament" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Wikipedia</a> and <a href="https://www.icehockey24.com/world/world-cup/archive/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">icehockey24.com</a>.</p>



<p></p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Recently by Paul Pidutti</h2>



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<p>_____</p>



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<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/@daily_faceoff" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Daily Faceoff Live</a>&nbsp;is on the road! From February 10th to 20th, we’re bringing you live shows every weekday straight from Four Nations. We’re delivering exclusive coverage, insider analysis, and all the tournament action as it unfolds. Don’t miss a beat—subscribe to the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/@daily_faceoff" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Daily Faceoff YouTube channel</a>&nbsp;and follow us on social for the latest updates. It’s international hockey, so expect intensity, excitement, and maybe even a little chaos. Stay locked in and catch us live from Four Nations!</p>
