<p>The Stanley Cup playoffs both giveth and taketh when it comes to money in the pocket of pending free agents.</p>



<p>With a strong showing as Brad Marchand Lite for the <a href="https://sportsnews.ai/filter/ice-hockey/nhl/boston-bruins" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Boston Bruins</a>, despite their historic first-round flameout, trade deadline acquisition Tyler Bertuzzi acquitted himself quite well in his first career postseason performance. He climbs from No. 12 all the way to No. 2 on Daily Faceoff’s latest Top 50 free agents ranking.</p>



<p>Michael Bunting went in the opposite direction. With a suspension followed by a healthy scratch, the Toronto forward tumbles from the No. 1 spot down to No. 5.</p>



<p>And now, we’re armed with more data to help support those rankings – which are usually a blend of projected interest level in the player plus total projected dollars earned on the market.</p><div class="injected-ad injected-video" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="0" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="133"></div>



<p>Courtesy of AFP Analytics, whose work is <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y8djdJG5PBDpRBge1_g2w4llcwUjSYqKlMlccVN58Hk/edit#gid=0" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">available in the public sphere</a>, we are able to now provide a specific contract projection for each of the players in our Top 50. AFP first began projecting and predicting contracts in 2019. Over the four free agent periods since, <a href="https://twitter.com/k_sticher" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Kyle Stich</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/J_Finchy1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">James Finch</a> have honed their formula to reduce the margin of error significantly. AFP Analytics uses a proprietary code to find comparable players and contracts, factors in both traditional counting and advanced analytics to spit out a prediction, and then manually sharpens their number using the eye test and market trends to come up with a final projection.</p>



<p>Last year, AFP Analytics had a mean absolute error (MAE) of $348,000 on AAVs and an MAE of just 0.61 years on term of the contract. In other words, considering they also projected every RFA contract where there is a high degree of variability, their projections are pretty damn strong and certainly make them one of the leaders in the public space.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="1" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="170"></div>



<p>In all actuality, some of these projections may be low, as they do not factor in a number of variables, including human emotion during negotiation, current playoff performance, and a minimum ($83.5 million) increase in next season’s salary cap upper limit. Those numbers may change in the coming days and weeks. For now, they are a great baseline to add critical context to an ever-evolving conversation.</p>



<p>Here is Daily Faceoff’s latest Top 50, with projections for every player, courtesy of <a href="https://twitter.com/AFPAnalytics" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">AFP Analytics</a>:</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-daily-faceoff-s-top-50-pending-free-agents">Daily Faceoff’s Top 50 Pending Free Agents</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Rank</strong></td><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Pos</strong></td><td><strong>Age</strong></td><td><strong>Team</strong></td><td><strong>Cap Hit</strong></td><td><strong>GP</strong></td><td><strong>G</strong></td><td><strong>PTS</strong></td><td><strong>AFP Projection</strong></td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>Damon Severson</td><td>RD</td><td>28</td><td>NJD</td><td>$4.17M</td><td>81</td><td>7</td><td>33</td><td>6 x $6.1m</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Tyler Bertuzzi</td><td>LW</td><td>28</td><td>BOS</td><td>$4.75M</td><td>50</td><td>8</td><td>30</td><td>6 x $5.25m</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Dmitry Orlov</td><td>LD</td><td>31</td><td>BOS</td><td>$5.1M</td><td>66</td><td>7</td><td>36</td><td>5 x $6.25m</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>J.T. Compher</td><td>C</td><td>28</td><td>COL</td><td>$3.5M</td><td>82</td><td>17</td><td>52</td><td>5 x $5.3m</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Michael Bunting</td><td>LW</td><td>27</td><td>TOR</td><td>$950K</td><td>82</td><td>23</td><td>49</td><td>5 x $5.25m</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Ryan Graves</td><td>LD</td><td>28</td><td>NJD</td><td>$3.17M</td><td>78</td><td>8</td><td>26</td><td>5 x $5.1m</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Alex Killorn</td><td>RW</td><td>33</td><td>TBL</td><td>$4.45M</td><td>82</td><td>27</td><td>64</td><td>4 x $5.25m</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Patrick Kane</td><td>RW</td><td>34</td><td>NYR</td><td>$10.5M</td><td>73</td><td>21</td><td>57</td><td>3 x $5.75m</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>Ryan O’Reilly</td><td>C</td><td>32</td><td>TOR</td><td>$7.5M</td><td>53</td><td>16</td><td>30</td><td>3 x $5.5m</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>Vladislav Gavrikov</td><td>LD</td><td>27</td><td>LAK</td><td>$2.8M</td><td>72</td><td>6</td><td>19</td><td>5 x $4.9m</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>Tristan Jarry</td><td>G</td><td>28</td><td>PIT</td><td>$3.5M</td><td>47</td><td>2.9</td><td>.909</td><td>4 x $4.8m</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>Jordan Staal</td><td>C</td><td>34</td><td>CAR</td><td>$6M</td><td>81</td><td>17</td><td>34</td><td>2 x $3.2m</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>Vladimir Tarasenko</td><td>RW</td><td>31</td><td>NYR</td><td>$7.5M</td><td>69</td><td>18</td><td>50</td><td>3 x $5m</td></tr><tr><td>14</td><td>Max Pacioretty</td><td>LW</td><td>34</td><td>CAR</td><td>$7M</td><td>5</td><td>3</td><td>3</td><td>1 x $1.5m</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>Max Domi</td><td>C/LW</td><td>28</td><td>DAL</td><td>$3M</td><td>80</td><td>20</td><td>56</td><td>5 x $4.75m</td></tr><tr><td>16</td><td>Ivan Barbashev</td><td>LW</td><td>27</td><td>VGK</td><td>$2.25M</td><td>82</td><td>16</td><td>45</td><td>4 x $4.2m</td></tr><tr><td>17</td><td>Scott Mayfield</td><td>RD</td><td>30</td><td>NYI</td><td>$1.45M</td><td>82</td><td>6</td><td>24</td><td>3 x $3.75m</td></tr><tr><td>18</td><td>Frederik Andersen</td><td>G</td><td>33</td><td>CAR</td><td>$4.5M</td><td>34</td><td>2.48</td><td>.903</td><td>2 x $4m</td></tr><tr><td>19</td><td>Evgenii Dadonov</td><td>RW</td><td>34</td><td>DAL</td><td>$5M</td><td>73</td><td>7</td><td>33</td><td>1 x $1.9m</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>Connor Brown</td><td>RW</td><td>29</td><td>WSH</td><td>$3.6M</td><td>4</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>4 x $3.3m</td></tr><tr><td>21</td><td>Carson Soucy</td><td>LD</td><td>28</td><td>SEA</td><td>$2.75M</td><td>78</td><td>3</td><td>16</td><td>3 x $2.5m</td></tr><tr><td>22</td><td>Radko Gudas</td><td>RD</td><td>33</td><td>FLA</td><td>$2.5M</td><td>72</td><td>2</td><td>17</td><td>3 x $3.3m</td></tr><tr><td>23</td><td>Erik Haula</td><td>C/LW</td><td>32</td><td>NJD</td><td>$2.38M</td><td>80</td><td>14</td><td>41</td><td>3 x $3.5m</td></tr><tr><td>24</td><td>Matt Dumba</td><td>RD</td><td>28</td><td>MIN</td><td>$6M</td><td>79</td><td>4</td><td>14</td><td>3 x $4.4m</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>Adin Hill</td><td>G</td><td>27</td><td>VGK</td><td>$2.18M</td><td>27</td><td>2.50</td><td>.915</td><td>2 x $3.3m</td></tr><tr><td>26</td><td>Joonas Korpisalo</td><td>G</td><td>29</td><td>LAK</td><td>$1.3M</td><td>39</td><td>2.87</td><td>.914</td><td>2 x $2.6m</td></tr><tr><td>27</td><td>Semyon Varlamov</td><td>G</td><td>35</td><td>NYI</td><td>$5M</td><td>23</td><td>2.70</td><td>.913</td><td>2 x $2.75m</td></tr><tr><td>28</td><td>Alex Kerfoot</td><td>LW/RW</td><td>28</td><td>TOR</td><td>$3.5M</td><td>82</td><td>10</td><td>32</td><td>4 x $3.5m</td></tr><tr><td>29</td><td>Shayne Gostisbehere</td><td>LD</td><td>30</td><td>CAR</td><td>$4.5M</td><td>75</td><td>13</td><td>41</td><td>4 x $4.8m</td></tr><tr><td>30</td><td>Luke Schenn</td><td>RD</td><td>33</td><td>TOR</td><td>$850K</td><td>70</td><td>4</td><td>22</td><td>1 x $1.6m</td></tr><tr><td>31</td><td>Garnet Hathaway</td><td>RW</td><td>31</td><td>BOS</td><td>$1.5M</td><td>84</td><td>13</td><td>22</td><td>4 x $2m</td></tr><tr><td>32</td><td>Jason Zucker</td><td>LW</td><td>31</td><td>PIT</td><td>$5.5M</td><td>78</td><td>27</td><td>48</td><td>5 x $5.4m</td></tr><tr><td>33</td><td>John Klingberg</td><td>RD</td><td>30</td><td>MIN</td><td>$7M</td><td>67</td><td>10</td><td>33</td><td>3 x $4.6m</td></tr><tr><td>34</td><td>James van Riemsdyk</td><td>LW/RW</td><td>34</td><td>PHI</td><td>$7M</td><td>61</td><td>12</td><td>29</td><td>1 x $1.8m</td></tr><tr><td>35</td><td>Gustav Nyquist</td><td>LW</td><td>33</td><td>MIN</td><td>$5.5M</td><td>51</td><td>11</td><td>27</td><td>2 x $3.2m</td></tr><tr><td>36</td><td>Pierre Engvall</td><td>RW</td><td>27</td><td>NYI</td><td>$2.25M</td><td>76</td><td>17</td><td>30</td><td>4 x $4.1m</td></tr><tr><td>37</td><td>David Kampf</td><td>C</td><td>28</td><td>TOR</td><td>$1.5M</td><td>82</td><td>7</td><td>27</td><td>2 x $1.8m</td></tr><tr><td>38</td><td>Connor Clifton</td><td>RD</td><td>27</td><td>BOS</td><td>$1M</td><td>78</td><td>5</td><td>23</td><td>2 x $1.75m</td></tr><tr><td>39</td><td>Evan Rodrigues</td><td>C</td><td>29</td><td>COL</td><td>$2M</td><td>69</td><td>16</td><td>39</td><td>3 x $3.7m</td></tr><tr><td>40</td><td>Tomas Tatar</td><td>LW</td><td>32</td><td>NJD</td><td>$4.5M</td><td>82</td><td>20</td><td>48</td><td>3 x $3.3m</td></tr><tr><td>41</td><td>Ian Cole</td><td>LD</td><td>34</td><td>TBL</td><td>$3M</td><td>78</td><td>3</td><td>17</td><td>2 x $2.75m</td></tr><tr><td>42</td><td>Nick Foligno</td><td>C/LW</td><td>35</td><td>BOS</td><td>$3.8M</td><td>60</td><td>10</td><td>26</td><td>1 x $1.2m</td></tr><tr><td>43</td><td>Jesper Fast</td><td>RW</td><td>31</td><td>CAR</td><td>$2M</td><td>80</td><td>10</td><td>29</td><td>2 x $2.3m</td></tr><tr><td>44</td><td>Nick Bjugstad</td><td>C</td><td>30</td><td>EDM</td><td>$900K</td><td>78</td><td>17</td><td>29</td><td>2 x $2.3m</td></tr><tr><td>45</td><td>Erik Gustafsson</td><td>LD</td><td>31</td><td>TOR</td><td>$800K</td><td>70</td><td>7</td><td>42</td><td>3 x $3.4m</td></tr><tr><td>46</td><td>Justin Holl</td><td>RD</td><td>31</td><td>TOR</td><td>$2M</td><td>80</td><td>2</td><td>18</td><td>3 x $3m</td></tr><tr><td>47</td><td>Sean Monahan</td><td>C</td><td>28</td><td>MTL</td><td>$6.38M</td><td>25</td><td>6</td><td>17</td><td>1 x $2m</td></tr><tr><td>48</td><td>Jonathan Drouin</td><td>C/LW</td><td>28</td><td>MTL</td><td>$5.5M</td><td>58</td><td>2</td><td>29</td><td>1 x $2m</td></tr><tr><td>49</td><td>Teddy Blueger</td><td>C</td><td>28</td><td>VGK</td><td>$2.2M</td><td>63</td><td>4</td><td>16</td><td>2 x $1.1m</td></tr><tr><td>50</td><td>Corey Perry</td><td>RW</td><td>38</td><td>TBL</td><td>$1M</td><td>81</td><td>12</td><td>25</td><td>1 x $850k</td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class="wp-element-caption"><br>Projection data courtesy: @AFPAnalytics</figcaption></figure>



<p>Next up: Noel Acciari, <a href="https://sportsnews.ai/filter/ice-hockey/nhl/toronto-maple-leafs" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Toronto Maple Leafs</a>. Projection: 2 years x $1.5 million.</p>



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