Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps his best NHL player prop bets for Friday’s hockey action.
Kirby Dach Anytime Goal (+420) at Sports Interaction
The Montreal Canadiens enter tonight’s matchup on an 8-2-0 tear, propelling them back into the race for the Eastern Conference’s final playoff spot. However, they are hefty underdogs (+185) heading into Friday’s game against the Washington Capitals, who rank second in the league in points percentage.
The Capitals, however, seem to be coming down to earth and likely aren’t providing as tough a matchup as oddsmakers suggest. Over the last ten games, they have allowed 3.50 expected goals per 60 minutes and have an expected goal share of just 46.41 percent.
Capitals goaltender Logan Thompson has remained in spectacular form, helping to cover for their recent drop-off. However, Charlie Lindgren has been confirmed as the Capitals’ starter for this matchup. This could help the Canadiens build on their improved offensive play against a Capitals team that has allowed a high number of chances over a large sample.
Lindgren owns a league-average save percentage of .900 and a slightly negative (-0.5) goals saved above expected rating in 20 appearances this season.
One driving force behind Montreal’s recent form has been former third overall pick Kirby Dach, who appears to be regaining his offensive touch on the team’s second line. Over the last six games, Dach has put up four goals and five points. Additionally, Dach has attempted 10 shots and has 0.93 individual expected goals. In a small sample of two games together, the line of Dach, Michael Pezzetta, and Alex Newhook has held an 83.3 percent expected goal share.
The only real positive for the Capitals of late has been the play of the second line, led by Pierre-Luc Dubois, which has done an excellent job shutting down opponents’ top units. Capitals head coach Spencer Carbery will likely look to use the last change to match Dubois’ unit head-to-head against Montreal’s top line as much as possible in this matchup. This should give the Canadiens’ second line a great chance to do some damage.
Cam Talbot Under 2.5 Goals Allowed (-125) at Sports Interaction
The Detroit Red Wings enter tonight’s matchup against the Chicago Blackhawks on a five-game winning streak, and like Montreal, they are now right in the thick of one of the softest playoff races in recent memory.
New head coach Todd McLellan has the Wings playing significantly better defensively. Throughout their winning streak, they have held opponents to just 2.68 expected goals per 60 minutes (fifth in the NHL) and have allowed only 25.25 shots against per 60. Moreover, Detroit has given up just 2.4 goals against in that span.
The Blackhawks have been better offensively since Anders Sorensen was appointed head coach, but they still look to be one of the league’s worst offensive teams. Under Sorensen, the Hawks have scored 2.48 goals per game and generated 2.64 expected goals per 60.
This matchup presents a great opportunity for the Red Wings to earn two critical points, and I’m counting on their improved defensive play to shine through against one of the league’s worst offensive teams. The Red Wings will also have a rest advantage over the Blackhawks, as they have been off since Tuesday. Therefore, Cam Talbot, who stopped 28 of 29 shots on Nov. 6 in Chicago, should have a good chance to replicate that performance. Talbot holds a .903 save percentage and has saved the team nearly four goals above expected. The 37-year-old has held opponents to two or fewer goals in 11 out of 21 appearances this season.