Team Canada will look to begin the much anticipated 4 Nations Face-Off with a critical win, as it takes on Team Sweden Wednesday in what promises to be an electrifying hockey showdown. Whether you’re confident in the tournament favourite Canadians earning an important win on home ice or believe Team Sweden has what it takes to pull off the upset, bet365 has you covered with its $1,000 First Bet Safety Net.
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Betting Analysis and Predictions for Sweden vs Canada
Team Sweden:
While Team Sweden’s roster may not boast quite as many truly elite superstars as Team Canada or the USA does, it still features more than enough talent to make some noise in a tournament featuring a format which should be fairly volatile.
The challenge for coaches and players involved in this tournament will be figuring out how to play a well-structured team game in a short timeframe. While on paper Canada’s roster is certainly a fair bit superior than Sweden’s group, the gap is close enough for the Swedes to steal a win if they manage the puck well and make less mistakes than the Canadians.
Even for an offensive core as loaded as Team Canada’s is, breaking through versus an elite Swedish blue-line may not be all that easy. The Swedes hold four of the league’s very best shutdown defenders in Victor Hedman, Jonas Brodin, Mattias Ekholm and Gustav Forsling, as well as two quality puck-movers in Erik Karlsson and Rasmus Dahlin.
In players like William Nylander, Filip Forsberg, Adrian Kempe and Jesper Bratt, Sweden’s forward corps also holds some of the NHL’s very best attacking threats.
What could be a concern relative to Canada is their lack of depth down the middle, as Elias Pettersson and Mika Zibanejad are set to center the top two units in Wednesday’s matchup.
Whether or not Pettersson is at his best will likely be a critical factor in determining how much success Sweden has in this tournament. The 26-year-old had 89 points during the 2022-23 regular season playing for the Vancouver Canucks, while playing a highly responsible brand of hockey defensively. Pettersson will be flanked by two of the very best wingers in the game in Kempe and Forsberg, who have combined for 54 goals in 107 games at the NHL level this season, and who respectively lead their teams in scoring. Kempe has proven himself as a big-game player, scoring nine goals in 11 games over the last two postseasons for the Los Angeles Kings.
Goaltender Filip Gustavsson could also provide a critical edge for the Swedes, as he has outperformed any of Canada’s options at the NHL level this season. Gustavsson holds a +14.6 GSAx rating and .915 save percentage in 37 appearances with the Minnesota Wild this season.
Team Canada:
As you would expect, the Canadians are the pre-tournament betting favourites with a roster featuring numerous generational talents and incredible depth. Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon have combined for five Hart trophies (NHL MVP), while 26-year-old defensemen Cale Makar has already won the Conn Smythe Trophy for playoff MVP.
Sam Reinhart and Mitch Marner look to have earned the opportunity to play alongside the game’s best player, Connor McDavid, at least for Wednesday’s tournament opener. Reinhart netted 57 goals with the Florida Panthers last season, and is already up to 31 goals in just 57 games played this season. Marner leads the Toronto Maple Leafs with 71 points and 55 assists in 54 games played.
Those three will also link up on the team’s top power play unit, which will be rounded out by MacKinnon and Makar.
Canada’s offensive core is one of the most talented units ever assembled in any international competition, with depth lines compiled almost exclusively of top-line players at the NHL level.
Canada’s defense corps may not offer quite as much of an edge over Sweden as its forward grouping does, but it is still far from a weakness. Makar and Toews have already played hundreds of games together as a pairing with the Colorado Avalanche, which could prove to be a notable edge in a short tournament.
Canada’s goaltenders are the team’s greatest weakness on paper, though Jordan Binnington, Adin Hill, and Sam Montembeault certainly hold more than enough upside to perform at a high level.
Binnington has been confirmed as Canada’s starting goaltender for Wednesday’s matchup. The 2019 Stanley Cup Champion holds an .896 save percentage and 2.89 goals-against average in 39 appearances with the St. Louis Blues this season.
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Predictions
It will be interesting to see how these two hockey powerhouses deploy all of their elite talent in this tournament, which will not offer too much time for coaches to make adjustments. Each game holds plenty of importance, as each nation is only guaranteed three round-robin matchups to earn their way into the tournament final on February 20th.
Expect both teams to display a high level of aggressiveness early on, which could lead to some breakdowns in the defensive zone, as the two sides will be trying to learn to play as a cohesive defensive unit on the fly. With so much offensive firepower on the ice mistakes will likely end up in the back of the net at a high rate, which should make for an excellent game.
Betting Tips
Team Sweden: Consider backing Adrian Kempe Anytime Goalscorer at +300, as he has earned the opportunity to play on the top line alongside two quality playmakers in Pettersson and Forsberg. He has scored nine goals in his last 11 playoff games, and his proven ability to score in tighter checking games could be a positive indicator from a betting perspective.
Team Canada: Consider backing Sam Reinhart Anytime Goalscorer Score at +190, as he gets the opportunity to play with two of the game’s very best setup men in McDavid and Marner at even strength, and he’s also going to skate on Canada’s lethal top power play unit. Not only did Reinhart tally 57 goals last regular season, he also put up 10 goals during the Florida Panthers’ Stanley Cup championship run, including the Cup- winning goal.
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Best NHL Bet for Canada vs Sweden
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