Breaking down the five playoff locks that might be paper tigers

Apr 2, 2025

Winnipeg Jets forward Mark Scheifele (55) faces off against Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (34) during the first period at Canada Life Centre.

Credit: © Terrence Lee

The NHL is no stranger to paper tigers.

Every season features its fair share of overperforming teams. Whether it’s a team that should have been in lottery contention finding itself in the playoff race, or a fringe playoff team playing its way into a division, conference or league title, some teams just capture a bit of magic and luck and can ride the wave for most of the season. Some can even see that translate to a lengthy playoff run, but it’s more likely the storybook season ends with a flameout in the first round.

With the season just about wrapped up, we generally know what every team brings to the table, at least during the regular season. The race for the Stanley Cup feels wide open, with so many teams capable of making a run, and the same goes for some exciting battles for the final playoff spots.

So, which teams among those groups are not what they seem? I’m going to look at five teams whose play hasn’t been nearly as good as their results would lead you to believe, tiering them into three different categories: overperforming a bit (teams that are just maybe a step or two below their results), good, but not great (teams at the top of the league that are still playoff-caliber, but not that good), and way over their heads (the ones who are much worse than where they currently stand). I’ll mostly be looking at the statistical paper tigers, so some teams like the Carolina Hurricanes or the Los Angeles Kings who are elite but still don’t have a lot of belief from the general public won’t be included on this list.

Overperforming a bit

Tampa Bay Lightning

What’s their flaw?: Outperforming their play-driving ability
What’s covering it up?: Elite scorers and Andrei Vasilevskiy

Once the model for being consistently elite, the Tampa Bay Lightning had fallen from grace after back-to-back first round exits in 2023 and 2024, and many thought that their contention window was closed. But, after making several drastic changes over the summer, particularly moving on from Steven Stamkos and Mikhail Sergachev in order to bring back Ryan McDonagh and sign Jake Guentzel, the Lightning appear to have reawakened and look like a Stanley Cup contender again.

With a 51.79% 5v5 expected goal share (xGF%) this season, their play-driving ability still falls closer to the past couple seasons than it does to the seasons that saw them in the hunt for Stanley Cups, which usually sat above 52.5%. That said, it’s not that far off, and it’s still the best iteration of the team that we’ve seen in the past three years.

Two things have really rejuvenated the Lightning this season. First, the changes they made in the summer have improved both their ability to score and defend, and while they’re not the best in the league at either, having elite talents like Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Victor Hedman can alter a game at any point. And then on top of that, they’ve seen a return to form from Andrei Vasilevskiy, whose 26.04 goals saved above expected (GSAx) ranks fifth in the league.

It’s not that the Lightning aren’t a playoff team. They deserved to be sitting comfortably in the top three of the Atlantic Division. But at the end of the day, I wouldn’t exactly say I’m confident they’ve truly regained their championship-contending form. Their experience is certainly an x-factor over most teams, but they’ll be in tough against the truly elite teams, including their state rivals in the Florida Panthers.

Winnipeg Jets

What’s their flaw?: Peaking too early
What’s covering it up?: Connor Hellebuyck

The Winnipeg Jets have been a weird team to project this season. Anyone who follows my work knows that I’ve been banging the “Jets are frauds” drum for a while, and that rang true when they were playing like a fringe playoff team but playing at a Presidents’ Trophy pace.

But recently the tide has shifted, as the Jets are playing closer to the level of their first-place record, and you might even say that they could be a Cup contender. Their 53.23% xGF% is currently sixth in the league, which is certainly high enough in the league to say they’re elite. However, they’re still overperforming in terms of 5v5 goal share (GF%), which is first in the league with 59.28%.

Their success is not necessarily a bad thing when the Jets have the high-end underlying numbers to back it up, but if there’s one concern, it’s that they might be peaking too early. I wrote about this two years ago, but the reason why Presidents’ Trophy winning teams haven’t won the Stanley Cup too much during the salary cap era is because they’re rarely the best team in the league, and instead one of the 5-10 top teams that just used up their luck in the regular season. Come playoff time, that luck usually runs out, and they get bounced by a team that is at their level but on their run of good luck at the right time.

So with how well the Jets have played this season, you have to wonder if that might be the case for them come playoff time. When you look at how tough the Central Division is, and how good some of the wild card teams have the potential to be, Winnipeg could certainly be in for a scare if they cool down at the wrong time.

Even with another Vezina-caliber season from Connor Hellebuyck, who’s first in GSAx with 44.92, he’s going to hit 60 starts again and may be at risk of being fatigued by the playoffs. This Jets team is good, even better than I anticipated, but it’s easy to see how they could become the 12th straight Presidents’ Trophy-winning team to fail to win the Stanley Cup.

Good, but not great

Dallas Stars

What’s their flaw?: Defense
What’s covering it up?: Elite offense and Jake Oettinger

The Dallas Stars made the biggest splash at the trade deadline, jumping on a soured relationship between Mikko Rantanen and the Hurricanes to bring in the star winger and lock him up long-term. After that addition, the Stars were the popular pick to win the Stanley Cup with a loaded forward group, the talented Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley on the back end, and Jake Oettinger in net.

However, the Rantanen addition didn’t do a lot to address the true problem with the Stars this season: their defensive play. So far this season, the Stars ranked 22nd in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) with 2.6, a rate that you would maybe expect from a team that is hovering around a Wildcard spot, not one that is gunning for a Stanley Cup.

The problem specifically lies on the right side of Dallas’ blueline, which boasted Ilya Lyubushkin, Matt Dumba and Brendan Smith to start the season. The recent addition of Cody Ceci hasn’t improved things either, as since he was acquired, the Stars have allowed the second-most xGA/60 with 2.92. That said, Heiskanen has been out of the lineup the entire time as well, which certainly won’t help.

This Stars team is still really good. Their offense is one of the best in the league, especially since Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz returned to being lights out, and Oettinger has been playing well enough to cover up their defensive mistakes with the eighth-best GSAx at 23.46. Even the left side of Dallas’ blueline is strong with Heiskanen, Harley, Esa Lindell and Lian Bichsel, but unless they can make that their top four, they have a noticeable flaw on their roster that another team of their caliber could easily exploit.

Washington Capitals

What’s their flaw?: Outperforming their play-driving ability
What’s covering it up?: League-best shooting percentage

The Washington Capitals have been one of the best stories in the league this season. A lot of that has to do with the ever-enticing narrative of Alex Ovechkin chasing down Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal-record. But the fact that the Capitals have managed to retool on the fly in the past five years to build a competitive team around Ovi as he approaches the record has made that story all the better.

This might be the one team on this list whose parade I truly hate to rain on, but the Capitals are far from a team that should be competing for a Presidents’ Trophy based on their play. Much like the Stars, this is a good team deserving of a playoff spot, but the Caps have certainly overperformed for most of the year.

Despite the third-best 5v5 GF% at 58.2%, the Capitals sit just 11th in 5v5 xGF% with 51.72%, certainly the play-driving level of a good, but not great team. A lot of that is inflated by a league-best 3.05 5v5 goals for per 60 and 11.3 5v5 shooting percentage, compared to a 5v5 expected goals for per 60 of 2.74, which is still tied for fourth. Even their poor defensive play has been masked a bit, as despite a 2.56 expected goals against per 60 minutes that ranks 21st, they’re ninth in 5v5 goals against per 60 with 2.19 thanks to a breakout season from Logan Thompson, who is fourth in GSAx with 26.24.

That said, if there’s one team that shouldn’t care too much about overperforming, it’s the Capitals. Unlike the other four teams on this list, they entered with very low expectations, so playing this well is found money amidst a magical and likely historic season. Obviously they’ll want to take advantage of their high seeding to win a round or two in the playoffs, but you also get the sense they won’t be all that disappointed if they lose in the first round.

Way over their heads

Toronto Maple Leafs

What’s their flaw?: Poor play-driving, likely driven by coaching
What’s covering it up?: Elite goaltending, one-goal game success

On the surface, the Toronto Maple Leafs are having one of their more successful regular seasons during the core four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares’ time in Toronto. While their .635% win percentage isn’t quite at the level of the 2020 to 2023 teams, they’re still in the running for a division title and actually have the lead for the time being.

But not only has this season not been as good as it may seem for the Leafs, it may actually be their worst season with their core. This season, they sit in 20th in the league in xGF% at 49.31%, 20th in xGF/60 with 2.47, and 18th in xGA/60 with 2.54, certainly not the level you’d expect from a team contending for a division title and, they hope, a Cup. It’s not a mark that should be too alarming, but for the standard that Toronto holds, it is, as it’s the worst xGF% of the Matthews/Marner/Nylander era.

Their offense struggling to generate shouldn’t come as a significant surprise considering how much their scoring depth drops off after the core four and Matthew Knies, whether in their bottom six or on the blueline. But their defensive struggles are a bit more shocking, as the depth of their D-corps and the defensive quality of some of their forwards on paper would suggest better results.

While it’s hard to truly quantify coaching impact, when a talented roster is underperforming unlike anything we’ve seen with this group, and it’s Craig Berube’s first season behind the bench, you have to wonder how much of that is on him and a system that might not be fit for this group. But, that’s been masked by the play of Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll, who’ve combined for a .922 5v5 save percentage that’s tied for fifth, along with getting the bounces in one-goal games with a record of 18-4-4.

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