<p>After 18 years of clockwork sniping, Alex Ovechkin’s play finally matches his birth certificate. While the 38-year-old is surely the <a href="https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/alex-ovechkin-s-next-goal-will-make-him-hockey-s-greatest-era-adjusted-scorer-1.2019858" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">greatest goal scorer</a> ever, his current 16-goal pace has made the chase interesting. Ovechkin’s recent plunge shows the perils of pursuing any record. Injury and decline are two inevitable enemies, lurking in arena shadows, waiting to ghost even the most dependable stars.</p>



<p>Enter the next generation. With a jaw-dropping 40 goals in 46 games, Auston Matthews is cruising toward a third Rocket Richard Trophy in four seasons. Incredibly, after eight years of elite scoring, he’s just 38% of the way to Wayne Gretzky’s mystical 894 goals. That’s a daunting 554 red lights to trigger.</p>



<p>With all eyes on the de facto host of Toronto’s All-Star extravaganza this weekend, we ask the question: <strong><em>Can Auston Matthews become the NHL’s all-time goal scoring leader one day?</em></strong></p><div class="injected-ad injected-video" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="0" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="144"></div>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity">



<p></p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-past">The Past</h2>



<p>Matthews has been a lethal scorer since the night of his four-goal debut. Today, he’s 26 and scoring at will. But he and Ovechkin aren’t the first gifted scorers. Not by a long shot.</p>



<p>We’ll call the 300-goal mark through a player’s age-26 season the floor for having a shot at the record. 22 players have done that: Matthews; Ovechkin; active studs Steven Stamkos, Connor McDavid, David Pastrnak; and 17 forwards well removed from NHL action. Here’s the results of the 17 retirees before and after 26 — Matthews and Ovechkin are listed for comparison.</p>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Capture.jpg"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="732" height="589" src="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Capture.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-139586" srcset="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Capture.jpg 732w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Capture-300x241.jpg 300w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Capture-150x121.jpg 150w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Capture-600x483.jpg 600w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Capture-696x560.jpg 696w" sizes="(max-width: 732px) 100vw, 732px"></a></figure></div>


<p></p>



<p>Hold your nose at all the 1980s players on the list. While some are all-time scorers, many simply played at the <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/adjusted-scoring-how-it-works-and-why-it-matters" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">most favorable stretch</a> ever to pile up gaudy offensive totals. But that’s the challenge — all-time records don’t care <em>when</em> you played. Not only does the Leafs’ mustachioed marksman need to score 900 goals, he has to do it with a severe disadvantage in scoring climate.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="1" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="164"></div>



<p>Through age 26, based on performance in their own eras, Matthews should be within 31 goals of The Great One. Instead? 175 goals behind. Tough start. But while we can’t change the past, what can we learn from it? </p>



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>While 26 sounds young, it represents mid-career for even the greatest snipers</strong> — the sample above played exactly 599 games before and after their age-26 season.</li>



<li><strong>After 26, the average player regressed</strong> <strong>from 48 to 31 goals per 82 games</strong> — while some of the drop is scoring environment, this is a 35% dip.</li>
</ol>



<p></p>



<p>Yes, the past tells us we’ve got two damaging trends. Players don’t last as long as we think, and their production falls much more swiftly than we realize.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-factors">The Factors</h2>



<p>If we’re theorizing whether Matthews has a chance, we have to understand <em>why</em> everyone except Ovechkin has wilted in their pursuit of Gretzky. Let’s map it out visually, using the same players above with the most goals through age 26.</p>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/image-39.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="641" src="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/image-39.png" alt="" class="wp-image-139535" srcset="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/image-39.png 612w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/image-39-286x300.png 286w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/image-39-150x157.png 150w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/image-39-300x314.png 300w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/image-39-600x628.png 600w" sizes="(max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px"></a></figure></div>


<p></p>



<p>So, what went wrong for the quick starters?</p>



<p>Most of the gray lines fall hard to the right, fading faster than a summer tan in Winnipeg. While there’s seldom a single factor, we’ll highlight how the top scorers fizzled.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="2" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="149"></div>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong><em>Natural decline</em></strong> (11): Yzerman; Hawerchuk; Robitaille; Goulet; Kurri; Turgeon; Trottier; Bellows; Lafleur; Anderson; Savard</li>



<li><strong><em>Major injury</em></strong> (2): Bossy; Lafontaine</li>



<li><strong><em>NHL</em></strong> <strong><em>departure</em></strong> (2): Jagr; Kovalchuk (both signed in KHL)</li>



<li><strong><em>Retirements</em></strong> (1): Lemieux (missed four-plus seasons)<br></li>
</ul>



<p></p>



<p>Some form of decline — whether fast and unforgiving or gradually coerced by injuries — stung the majority. Gretzky was not exempted by Father Time, either. He scored only 176 goals after his age-30 season. In fact, he scored more goals in 1981-82 (NHL-record 92) than his last five years <em>combined</em> (91). Like most 1980s stars, the decline was greatly compounded by the league’s stifling new landscape. Gradually, 50-goal seasons became 35-goal seasons as slap shots off the rush went from scoring chances to a waste of time.</p>



<p>The greatest threat to Matthews, therefore, is not major injury. It’s that he remains a legitimate scorer for another decade-plus and it’s simply not enough goals to sniff the record.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-future">The Future</h2>



<p>What needs to go right for Matthews to chase immortality?</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-nice-to-haves">Nice-to-Haves</h3>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>82-game schedules</strong>: No lockouts. No strikes. No pandemics. From shortened or cancelled seasons, Ovechkin lost up to 155 games, enough that Gretzky’s record would be long broken. Matthews’ count is at 38 missed games from the COVID years.</li>



<li><strong>Supporting cast:</strong> The Maple Leafs live in win-now mode, which needs to continue to offer Matthews talented linemates and power play chemistry.</li>



<li><strong>No harmful trends:</strong> A player-friendly penalty standard. 3-on-3 overtime. NBA-style “load management” yet to arrive. While seemingly minor, each could affect his goal count if tweaked.</li>
</ul>



<p></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-must-haves">Must-Haves</h3>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>Health:</strong> To break any career record, health is paramount. There’s no substitute for being in the lineup, particularly in your prime. Matthews has dressed for 90% of Toronto’s games to date, a solid mark. But he’s going to have to last about 800 to 1,000 more games to pursue the crown.</li>



<li><strong>Scoring environment: </strong>Gretzky was in his prime for the 10 most offensive seasons since World War II. Matthews and Ovechkin have had no such perk. But Papi needs the NHL to at least continue its current historically average scoring climate. Otherwise, he’ll subtly lose about five critical goals every year.</li>



<li><strong>Barely age for 10 years:</strong> We understand all goal scorers decline, most doing so way before turning 30. Auston Matthews isn’t allowed.<br></li>
</ul>



<p></p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="3" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="131"></div>



<p>It’s this last point that devastates his odds. And it has nothing to do with Matthews — he’s unparalleled as a goal scorer today.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Odds</h2>



<p>You might say,<strong><em> “Listen, buddy, we JUST watched Ovechkin score 831 goals.</em></strong> <strong><em>And he missed games for reasons outside his control! And there’s more scoring in the NHL now!</em></strong>“</p>



<p>This is all true. But I can’t emphasize how improbable it is for anyone repeating Ovechkin’s career arc. At age 20, he was 3rd in NHL goals. Age 23? 1st. Age 28? 1st. Age 30? 1st. Age 33? You guessed it — 1st. Age 34? 1st. Age 36? A<em>nother</em> 50! At 37, when nearly all his peers were long retired? 42 goals!</p>



<p>Athletes simply don’t do this. Ovechkin scored at a 50-goal pace over his first seven seasons… and then scored at a 50-goal pace for <em>another 11 seasons</em>. He led the NHL in goals seven times <em>beyond</em> Matthews’ current age, typically the peak of a scorer’s powers. Hey Auston, just do that. Got it? Great!</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="4" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="169"></div>



<p>Let’s chart a course for Matthews, plotted on a career timeline versus Gretzky and Ovechkin.</p>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/image-37.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="704" height="725" src="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/image-37.png" alt="" class="wp-image-139414" srcset="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/image-37.png 704w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/image-37-291x300.png 291w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/image-37-150x154.png 150w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/image-37-300x309.png 300w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/image-37-600x618.png 600w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/image-37-696x717.png 696w" sizes="(max-width: 704px) 100vw, 704px"></a></figure></div>


<p></p>



<p>Under this lofty scenario, Matthews needs 70 this year, then… be a 60+ goal scorer for two years… a 50+ goal scorer for two more years… a 40+ goal scorer for another three years… average about 30 for another four years… and still cobble together 55 more goals pushing his 40th birthday in the late 2030s. All while keeping in mind a guy actually nicknamed The Great One topped 25 goals <em>once</em> after age 31.</p>



<p>Should our Auston morph from menacing Stone Cold Steve Austin into Austin Powers without his mojo at any point over the next 10 years, his record chances drop from slim to none. There is no room for error.</p>



<p><strong><em>Can Matthews do it?</em> </strong>Sure, anything is possible. But the odds are extremely low. So, let’s just enjoy one of history’s finest goal scorers wow us nightly in his prime. The rest will take care of itself.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="5" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="166"></div>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity">



<p></p>



<p><em>Follow&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/AdjustedHockey" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@AdjustedHockey</a>&nbsp;on X; Data from&nbsp;<a href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Hockey-Reference.com</a></em></p>



<p>_____</p>



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