<p>One year ago, Auston Matthews woke up on Dec. 4 with 16 goals to his name. He’d snagged three hat tricks in his first 11 games. He was scoring at an NHL-best 60-goal pace and would finish with 69 — the most since Mario Lemieux three decades earlier.</p>



<p>Fast forward a year and much has changed for the mustachioed sniper.</p>



<p>Matthews missed nine November games with an upper-body ailment, featuring a mysterious specialist visit in Germany. He wears the captain’s ‘C’ now, the torch passed by John Tavares in the offseason. And while the <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Leafs</a> are doing their regular season thing with a 15-7-2 record, they’re doing it differently. Under Craig Berube, famously no-nonsense, it’s stingy defense and strong goaltending carrying a mediocre offense.</p>



<p>But what’s changed the most is that Auston Matthews has scored only six goals.</p><div class="injected-ad injected-video" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="0" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="138"></div>



<p>For any other player, today’s question would never be asked. But this isn’t any other player… it’s the <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/witnessing-greatness-matthews-mcdavid-makar" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">world’s greatest</a> goal scorer. <strong><em>Can Auston Matthews still win his fourth Rocket Richard Trophy this season?</em></strong></p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">🔨 The Task at Hand</h2>



<p>Now, absent a crystal ball, we don’t know how many goals are needed to lead the NHL. In the four seasons before the pandemic, the NHL leader averaged 49 goals. Sidney Crosby won the 2016-17 Rocket by scoring just 44 times. That total only got you a tie for 10th last season.</p>



<p>Today’s NHL is much different. In the last three seasons, the best non-Matthews goal totals: Sam Reinhart (57, 2023-24); Connor McDavid (64, 2022-23); Leon Draisaitl (55, 2021-22). That’s an average of 59 goals.</p>



<p>Yes, it’s a great time to be an NHL superstar. High power play conversion rates, <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/how-empty-net-goals-have-changed-the-nhl" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">record empty net goals</a>, more games settled in 3-on-3 overtime, and <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/death-of-the-900-save-percentage-why-stopping-the-puck-is-so-tough-for-todays-nhl-goalies" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">low goalie save percentages</a> have made eye-popping scoring feats more attainable.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="1" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="156"></div>



<p>What makes Matthews’ task so daunting is that he needs to do <em>all</em> of the following:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Outscore Reinhart by 12</li>



<li>Outscore Draisaitl by 11</li>



<li>Outscore Kirill Kaprizov, Brayden Point and Cole Caufield by 10</li>



<li>Outscore Mikko Rantanen and teammate William Nylander by 9</li>



<li>Outscore Kyle Connor, Artemi Panarin, and Tage Thompson by 7</li>



<li>Outscore McDavid and Nikita Kucherov by 6</li>



<li>Outscore recent 61-goal man David Pastrnak by 3</li>



<li>Outscore nine-time Rocket winner Alex Ovechkin — who has a 9-goal lead — when he returns<br></li>
</ul>



<p></p>



<p>Oh, and outscore each of the 123 players ahead of him in goals right now… over the remaining 70% of the schedule… after returning from a lingering ailment… while hoping to avoid any residual effects or new injuries. That’s it.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">⏮ The Past Injury Comebacks</h2>



<p>Compounding Matthews’ challenge is the effect of a nine-game absence. Before his return on Saturday night, he went nearly a full month between action, most of which was spent off the ice entirely.</p>



<p>Let’s take a look at Matthews’ recent goal-scoring history before and after notable injuries:</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Date</strong></td><td><strong>Injury</strong></td><td><strong>Games Missed</strong></td><td><strong>20 Games Before</strong></td><td><strong>20 Games After</strong></td></tr><tr><td>February 2021</td><td>Hand/wrist</td><td>2</td><td>18 goals</td><td>14 goals</td></tr><tr><td>October 2021</td><td>Upper body</td><td>3</td><td>Missed first 3 games of season</td><td>10 goals</td></tr><tr><td>January 2023</td><td>Knee</td><td>5</td><td>12 goals</td><td>12 goals</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p></p>



<p>What are the takeaways from Matthews’ previous setbacks?</p>



<p>His hand injury in the abbreviated 2020-21 season didn’t derail him at all. He cruised to the Rocket with 41 goals in 52 games, winning the trophy by eight goals. His knee injury in January 2023 didn’t change his fortune either — he scored at a 49-goal pace before and after.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="2" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="164"></div>



<p>But there might be some juice from Fall 2021 after Matthews missed the Leafs’ opening three contests. Papi cruised to the MVP and Rocket with 60 goals in only 73 games. But he was slow to get going, scoring seven times in his first 17 games. Afterward? He went nuclear: 53 goals in 56 games, a nightmare-inducing 19.3% shooting percentage.</p>



<p>This may offer some insight that Matthews could be slow out of the gate in his return. On Saturday, he had two assists and two shots in a win over <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/tampa-bay-lightning/line-combinations" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Tampa</a>. On Monday, he scored a slick breakaway goal on three shots hosting <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Chicago</a>. But as Matthews reminded everyone, it’s only been a few weeks away.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Auston Matthews confirms that he still knows how to play hockey 😅 <a href="https://t.co/u3jVNqRYZE">pic.twitter.com/u3jVNqRYZE</a></p>— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) <a href="https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1862881991294672955?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 30, 2024</a></blockquote><script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">🎯 The World’s Best Sniper</h2>



<p>Now that we know what he’s up against, let’s explore what Matthews is capable of. I hope you’re sitting down as his spiciest stretches of play can cause knee buckling.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="3" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="159"></div>



<p>By returning on the weekend, it gave Matthews 60 games to make a rush for the Rocket. Below are his best 30 and 60-game stretches from the last five seasons — the Sistine Chapel of sniping when it comes to ceilings.</p>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/image-5.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="797" height="423" src="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/image-5.png" alt="" class="wp-image-187059" srcset="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/image-5.png 797w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/image-5-300x159.png 300w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/image-5-768x408.png 768w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/image-5-150x80.png 150w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/image-5-600x318.png 600w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/image-5-696x369.png 696w" sizes="(max-width: 797px) 100vw, 797px"></a></figure></div>


<p></p>



<p>Don’t adjust your glasses. In the last two decades, only McDavid (50 in 2023-24) and Ovechkin (51 in 2007-08) have cracked 50 in 60 at any point in a season. But in two of the last three seasons, Matthews scored 55 times in a 60-goal span. That would get him to 60 and make the goal crown probable. In each of those years, Matthews also had a stretch of 33 goals in 30 games. Want to get back in a scoring race? Just do that.</p>



<p>But Matthews also has a few things working against him…</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="4" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="137"></div>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>First, these are his best stretches. He’s averaged about 44 goals per 60 games the last five years. That’s a 60-goal pace… over 82 games. So, Average Auston won’t cut it — 44 in his last 60 would land him 49 in the maximum 73 games he can play.</li>



<li>At 5-on-5, Toronto’s generating a vanilla 2.38 xGF/60 (expected goals per 60 minutes) per <a href="https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamtable.php?fromseason=20242025&amp;thruseason=20242025&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;rate=y&amp;team=all&amp;loc=B&amp;gpf=410&amp;fd=&amp;td=#" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Natural Stat Trick</a> — tied for 19th in the NHL.</li>



<li>Their power play (19.5%) is below NHL average. A huge explosion could be in store soon though, their underlying metrics suggest they should be in the top handful of teams.</li>



<li>The Leafs’ depth remains tested. Max Domi is still out. Bobby McMann has been down for a week, while Max Pacioretty and David Kampf remain out. Calle Jarnkrok is sidelined long-term.<br></li>
</ul>



<p></p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">🆚 The Competition</h2>



<p>What can we expect from the usual suspects in the goals race?</p>



<p>Using a simple weighted average covering the current year-to-date results and the two full seasons prior, we can get a quick projection of the 13 players most likely to score 40 goals this season.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-regular"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Rank</strong></td><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Projected Games</strong></td><td><strong>Projected Goals</strong></td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>Brayden Point</td><td>78</td><td><strong>53</strong></td></tr><tr><td>T2</td><td>Kirill Kaprizov</td><td>81</td><td><strong>51</strong></td></tr><tr><td>T2</td><td>Sam Reinhart</td><td>82</td><td><strong>51</strong></td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Leon Draisaitl</td><td>82</td><td><strong>50</strong></td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Mikko Rantanen</td><td>82</td><td><strong>48</strong></td></tr><tr><td><strong>6</strong></td><td><strong>Auston Matthews</strong></td><td><strong>73</strong></td><td><strong>47</strong></td></tr><tr><td>T7</td><td>William Nylander</td><td>82</td><td><strong>44</strong></td></tr><tr><td>T7</td><td>Connor McDavid</td><td>79</td><td><strong>44</strong></td></tr><tr><td>T9</td><td>Artemi Panarin</td><td>82</td><td><strong>42</strong></td></tr><tr><td>T9</td><td>Tage Thompson</td><td>77</td><td><strong>42</strong></td></tr><tr><td>T11</td><td>David Pastrnak</td><td>82</td><td><strong>41</strong></td></tr><tr><td>T11</td><td>Nathan MacKinnon</td><td>82</td><td><strong>41</strong></td></tr><tr><td>T11</td><td>Nikita Kucherov</td><td>81</td><td><strong>41</strong></td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class="wp-element-caption"><strong>[Through December 3, 2024]</strong></figcaption></figure>



<p></p>



<p>Matthews is right there. Despite missing nine games, he’s still projected to finish sixth in goals and flirt with 50. But the biggest red flag is that these are <em>average</em> results for the superstars above. One or more are likely to have that perfect season — power play success, empty netters, puck luck — and outperform their baseline.</p>



<p>It leaves Matthews with no room for error.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">🚨 The Answer</h2>



<p>So, can he win his fourth Rocket by age 27?</p>



<p>It’s going to take one of the best stretches of sniping in the last 20 years. And he’ll need some help. Red-hot Reinhart’s shooting percentage needs to finally regress. Point and Kaprizov need to settle. Draisaitl and McDavid can’t perform at their top gears or one of them will score 55. And Rantanen and MacKinnon need to wear under the weight of a thin team.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="5" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="189"></div>



<p>As always, Matthews will remain unfazed. He knows he’ll be judged in April, not December. Yet, scoring 50-plus goals in 60 games is, incredibly, in his repertoire. My best guess? Auston goes on a signature run in a few weeks that lasts for months. Let’s give him 48 over his last 60 to finish with 53, falling a handful of goals behind a star in the field who has a career year in goals and enjoys full health.</p>



<p>As fans, we love a good scoring heater. How fun will it be if Matthews makes a push?</p>



<p></p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity">



<p></p>



<p>Follow&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/AdjustedHockey" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@AdjustedHockey</a>&nbsp;on X; visit&nbsp;<a href="http://www.adjustedhockey.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">www.adjustedhockey.com</a>; data from <a href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Hockey-Reference</a>, <a href="http://www.NHL.com/stats">NHL.com</a></p>



<p></p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity">



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Recently by Paul Pidutti</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/how-empty-net-goals-have-changed-the-nhl" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">The rise of empty net goals is changing the NHL</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/projecting-the-2025-hall-of-fame-class-thornton-chara-headline-newly-eligible-candidates">Projecting the 2025 Hall of Fame Class: Thornton, Chara headline five potential first-ballot picks</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/whos-in-your-hall-of-awesome">Who makes your Hall of Awesome?</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/forget-the-race-to-1000-points-connor-mcdavid-is-the-third-best-scorer-ever">Forget the race to 1,000 points: Connor McDavid is the third-best scorer ever</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/pps-2024-where-do-the-nhls-active-star-defensemen-and-goaltenders-rank-among-the-greatest-of-all-time">Where do the NHL’s active star defensemen and goaltenders rank among the greatest of all-time?</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/pps-2024-updating-the-all-time-player-rankings-for-the-nhls-active-superstars">Where do the NHL’s active star forwards rank among the greatest of all-time?</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/sidney-crosby-1600-points-and-the-lost-generation-of-scoring-sensations">Sidney Crosby, 1,600 points, and the lost generation of scoring sensations</a></li>
</ul>



<p>_____</p>



<p></p><div class="bam-inline-promotion" data-property-id="309" data-promotion-id="19111" data-context="web-content-promocard"></div><p></p>



<p>POST SPONSORED BY bet365</p>


Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthew