When Dylan Larkin was named to USA’s roster for the 4 Nations Face-Off, many seemed to question the decision.
Compared to those of Tage Thompson, Cole Caufield and Clayton Keller, Larkin’s numbers weren’t as explosive at the time the roster was named. But if you don’t watch Detroit Red Wings games, you likely don’t know the true impact of Larkin’s game and what makes him such a tremendous fit on the team as USA looks to chase gold in Boston on Thursday.
It’s not like Larkin is a slouch. In hindsight, Larkin has outscored the likes of Matt Boldy, Auston Matthews, Brady Tkachuk and J.T. Miller in the NHL this season (Matthews and Miller have missed some time due to injury). Larkin’s on pace to crack 30 goals for the fourth straight season and will likely break 70 points for the third time.
Just about every night, he’s been consistently near the top in most notable advanced categories. According to SportContract, Larkin has an expected goals-for percentage of 64.0 and a Corsi-for of 56.5 percent. He’s doing it while averaging 14:29 a night, too. Larkin has two points in three games, with both coming against Canada to help USA earn a berth in the final. His 78 percent Corsi-for percentage against Sweden, though – USA’s lone loss – was equally as impressive.
But two things you can’t quantify on a scoresheet that make him vital to USA’s success are his speed and his work ethic.
DYLAN LARKIN GIVES USA THE LEAD IN THE 2ND 🦅 pic.twitter.com/JP0BjCMiie
— ESPN (@espn) February 16, 2025
It can be difficult to mold an all-star team together, especially with USA boasting some of its best depth ever seen. When Larkin made the team, it was to play a role. He was a good fit because he’s energetic and looks to make opponents accountable every time they touch the puck. Larkin isn’t the flashiest most skilled guy and not necessarily the one who’s going to score that huge goal in the dying seconds when you need it most. But you can throw him into any situation and feel confident about him, and that’s what you need in a showcase event like the 4 Nations Face-Off.
If you watch Detroit closely, none of this is surprising. Of course, you want your team’s players thriving in an event like this, but the numbers don’t lie – Larkin has made a positive impact. When NHL scouts talk about what they want to see from top prospects, they often to point to someone like Larkin – a guy who can score, but also do the dirty work needed to win. You spend more time away from the puck than with it, and Larkin truly makes an impact away from it.
Let’s keep it simple: When Larkin is on the ice, the puck generally makes it to the opponent’s zone. More often than not, Larkin has made the United States more difficult to play against. There was no better example of that than his game against Canada, with Larkin’s goal proving to be the game-winner. Larkin was arguably USA’s best player against Sweden in a game where the team wasn’t close to being fully healthy.
For good measure, Larkin has yet to be on the ice for a goal against, either.
Larkin does an excellent job of recovering the puck in the defensive zone and getting it out on the rush. He’s also averaging 0.9 expected goals-per-60 – not a high number, but still better than the good majority of USA’s lineup. He’s a ferocious beast on the forecheck, using his speed to make sure he doesn’t lose many battles.
It’ll be interesting to see how Larkin is utilized on Thursday. We know how difficult he was to play against in the first Canada game, matchup-wise. His ice time has improved in every game so far, too. He was USA’s third-line center on Monday after initially starting the tournament on the fourth line. But the team also missed Auston Matthews and Matthew Tkachuk (with Brady Tkachuk also leaving midway through the night). When everyone’s healthy, you have to think the Americans will shorten the bench as the game reaches its boiling point.
But based on Larkin’s play, he should be part of that group.
Larkin hasn’t had to play much important hockey over his pro career. The 28-year-old made the postseason just once back in 2016 and hasn’t played in a championship game of any kind since taking home gold at the 2014 U-18 World Championship. He won bronze medals at the 2016 and 2018 World Championships, but that’s it.
Thursday night – primetime on American ice in a rematch against USA’s top rival – will easily be the biggest game Larkin has ever played. For Red Wings, it’s hopefully the first of many.
“I was saying (Monday) it’s been a long time since I’ve won something,” Larkin told the media on Monday night. “I know there’s other guys in here in the same boat. There’s a lot on the line.”
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