<p>For the first time in his career, Leon Draisaitl is no longer living in Connor McDavid’s shadow.</p>



<p>Ever since McDavid entered the league in the 2015-16 season, he and Draisaitl are first and second in scoring with a respective 1,048 and 916 points. They’ve been the league’s most dominant duo for the better part of 10 years now, and yet Draisaitl has always been discredited a bit for the fact he plays with McDavid.</p>



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<p>It’s a part of the business of playing with the best in the league. Evgeni Malkin dealt with it while playing with Sidney Crosby, Jaromir Jagr experienced it with Mario Lemieux, and even Mark Messier didn’t get full recognition until after Wayne Gretzky left the <a href="https://oilersnation.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Edmonton Oilers</a>.</p>



<p>There is some legitimacy to those claims. After all, they’re either playing on a line with the best player in the league and seeing their play elevated to another level alongside them, or they’re playing on a separate line but dealing with easier minutes because said best player is getting the tough competition. You could make the case that if you swapped Leon Draisaitl out of the Oilers for a player like Nathan MacKinnon or Auston Matthews, they would thrive even more in the same role, while Draisaitl may take a step back in the spotlight on his new team.</p><div class="injected-ad injected-video" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="0" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="221"></div>



<p>Draisaitil earned his first and only Hart Trophy in 2019-20. McDavid went down with an injury for seven games, and the fact that Draisaitl didn’t crumble in that brief span and led the league in scoring clinched him the honors. But, it was quite easy to poke a hole in that win, considering that it was only seven games that people were giving him credit for. Draisaitl probably doesn’t care, but to a decent chunk of the hockey world, he still had yet to step out of McDavid’s shadow.</p>



<p>But this season, we’re starting to see Draisaitl surpass McDavid (emphasis on <em>this</em> season), and justifiably so. Much like that 2019-20 season, Draisaitl has benefitted from playing more games than McDavid to push him ahead in the scoring race. But Draisaitl has also seen a huge improvement in his defensive game this year, and that’s part of what’s kept him in the Hart Trophy race.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="1" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="154"></div>



<p>Some considered Draisaitl to be a good defensive player in the past, largely because of how much time he’s spent on the penalty kill, but they’d be mistaken. In general, ice time is not a stat that should be used to reference how good a player is, as it really only tells us two things: the player has good cardio and the coach likes playing them. With the penalty kill, bottom six/pair players will sometimes get ice time there because teams can afford to lose those players to an injury caused by a blocked shot. Obviously, Draisaitl was not getting penalty kill time because the Oilers could afford to lose him, but regardless, he was not good enough defensively to be on the PK during that time.</p>



<p>Throughout his career, Draisaitl hasn’t just not been a high-level defensive player, but he’s actually had a negative impact defensively. If you look at his defensive goals above replacement and his regularized-adjusted plus minus for expected goals against per 60 minutes throughout his first 10 seasons, he’s consistently been a poor defensive player, sometimes even one of the league’s worst.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="2" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="187"></div>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center"><strong>Season</strong></td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center"><strong>Defensive GAR</strong></td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center"><strong>League Rank</strong> <strong>(forwards)</strong></td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center"><strong>RAPM xGA/60</strong></td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center"><strong>League Rank</strong> <strong>(forwards)</strong></td></tr><tr><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">2014-15</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">-1</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">t-255th of 400</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">0.017</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">t-250th of 400</td></tr><tr><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">2015-16</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">-2.3</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">t-277th of 352</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">0.065</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">264th of 352</td></tr><tr><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">2016-17</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">-1.4</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">t-236th of 353</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">0.065</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">264th of 353</td></tr><tr><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">2017-18</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">-1.7</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">t-275th of 367</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">0.035</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">249th of 367</td></tr><tr><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">2018-19</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">-5.4</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">355th of 366</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">0.161</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">344th of 366</td></tr><tr><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">2019-20</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">-7.4</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">335th of 337</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">0.203</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">324th of 337</td></tr><tr><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">2020-21</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">-5.1</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">283rd of 285</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">0.203</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">t-277th of 285</td></tr><tr><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">2021-22</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">-5.2</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">t-370th of 389</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">0.114</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">t-329th of 389</td></tr><tr><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">2022-23</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">-4.8</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">t-353rd of 385</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">0.124</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">319th of 385</td></tr><tr><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">2023-24</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">-3.9</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">t-329th of 375</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">0.147</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">338th of 375</td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class="wp-element-caption"><br><em>2014-15 season is among players with 350 5v5 minutes, all other seasons are among players with 500 5v5 minutes</em></figcaption></figure>



<p>Through his first 10 seasons, Draisaitl had never had a positive defensive impact on his teams, whether you evaluate it based on his value above replacement level or you isolate his metrics from factors like quality of competition and teammates.</p>



<p>While the first few seasons you could write off to figuring out his defensive game as a young player, the concerning part is that once he established himself as an elite scorer (his 105 point season in 2018-19), his defensive game went from bad to horrendous, and one of the worst in the league. Since then, he’s been a bottom-50 defensive forward in the league.</p>



<p>It’s never been a detriment to his overall impact, as his offensive impact far outweighed his negative defensive impact every year, but it’s the difference between him being an elite scorer and an elite player. Not only that, but it did create an easy matchup for opposing teams that caught on. If a team had a scoring line and a shutdown line, throw the shutdown line at McDavid’s line to contain him, and throw your scoring line against Draisaitl. You might get burned once or twice by Draisaitl, but you’ll usually outscore him.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="3" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="198"></div>



<p>You can also see another reason why some questioned the legitimacy of Draisaitl’s Hart Trophy in 2019-20: he was one of the worst defensive players in the league that season. Only Patrick Kane and Kyle Connor were worse than him in defensive GAR, and while Draisaitl was slightly better in comparison to the rest of the league in RAPM xGA/60, he was still in the bottom 15.</p>



<p>The same goes for Draisaitl’s penalty killing. A quick look at his shorthanded defensive goals above replacement in the eight seasons that he’s gotten somewhat regular penalty killing minutes, and only 2017-18 and 2018-19 didn’t see him have a negative impact on the PK. That’s putting it nicely too, as his 2017-18 season saw no impact whatsoever, while 2018-19 was barely positive.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center"><strong>Season</strong></td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center"><strong>Shorthanded DGAR</strong></td></tr><tr><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">2016-17</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">-0.2</td></tr><tr><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">2017-18</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">0</td></tr><tr><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">2018-19</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">0.2</td></tr><tr><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">2019-20</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">-2.1</td></tr><tr><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">2020-21</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">-1.3</td></tr><tr><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">2021-22</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">-2.5</td></tr><tr><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">2022-23</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">-1</td></tr><tr><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">2023-24</td><td class="has-text-align-center" data-align="center">-0.2</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p></p>



<p>So despite the reputation Draisaitl had garnered among some circles, he was not a strong defensive player. In fact, he was only strong at having a negative defensive impact. So when there was talk about his defensive game being strong this season, possibly even Selke-worthy, eyebrows were raised.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="4" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="178"></div>



<p>But there is some legitimacy to it.</p>



<p>If you look at Draisaitl’s defensive metrics this season, they have improved significantly. Not only is he not a liability in his own zone, he’s actually providing a positive impact. In terms of defensive GAR, he finds himself at 1.1, while his RAPM xGA/60 is -0.002 (negative is good in this case, as it means he’s allowing fewer expected goals than the baseline).</p>



<p>Draisaitl has also found himself in conversations for the Selke Trophy this season as a result of his play. He even finished eighth in Selke voting for <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/2024-25-midseason-nhl-award-winners-draisaitl-hellebuyck-celebrini-hughes" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Daily Faceoff’s midseason awards</a>. While he has seen some improvement, and has a positive defensive impact while facing quality of competition in the 90th percentile, his defensive game hasn’t been <em>that </em>good. His defensive GAR is still only tied for 71st in the league, while his RAPM xGA/60 is tied for 141st, and his shorthanded defensive GAR is still at 0. It’s certainly at the quality of a top six forward, but not anywhere close to best in the league. Still, when you factor in that he’s facing top-quality competition <em>and </em>still producing top-end offense, it’s highly impressive.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="5" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="195"></div>



<p>Draisaitl’s defensive game isn’t Selke-caliber, but it has improved significantly, and it’s shown in the Oilers’ consistency this season despite the fact that McDavid or Draisaitl haven’t felt superhuman offensively like they usually do in past seasons. You can make a good case that Draisaitl has never been more impactful as a player and that he has his strongest claim yet to the Hart Trophy.</p>



<p>If Draisaitl can carry this play into the playoffs, the Oilers will be a tough out, as their biggest defensive exploit is now covered up. It not only makes the Oilers a strong contender to repeat as Western Conference champions, but possibly even go all the way this season.</p>



<p><em>All advanced stats courtesy of <a href="https://evolving-hockey.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Evolving Hockey</a>.</em></p>



<p>_____</p>



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Tampa Bay Lightning forward Nikita Kucherov (86) and Edmonton Oilers forward Leon Draisaitl (29) look for a loose puck during the second period at Rogers Place.