It’s easy to navigate the early rounds of your Fantasy Draft, but finding value in the mid-to-late rounds is a key to building a championship team.
I’ve analyzed the Yahoo! Average Draft Positions (ADP) and compared them to my Top 300 Rankings to find the best value picks at all five positions. Some of these players are being drafted as early as the seventh round, and some are going as late as the 14th round (in 12-team leagues).
Centres
Dylan Larkin (DET – C) – ADP: 83.1
Larkin’s 2023-24 season flew under the radar because he missed 14 games due to injury, but he was on pace for 40 goals, 43 assists (83 points) and 267 shots on goal. That’s a nearly identical stat line to Steven Stamkos, who is being drafted at ADP: 44.5, three rounds ahead of Larkin. And Stamkos has concerns surrounding him. He’s no longer with the Tampa Bay Lightning and their elite power play, and he’ll be 35 years old in February. Meanwhile, Larkin just turned 28 years old and will be back skating with Lucas Raymond and Alex DeBrincat this year, a trip that spent over 300 minutes together at 5v5 last year. That trio ranked first in GoalsFor/60 (4.7) among the 41 lines who spent at least 300 minutes together.
We also had Larkin come out and say this week that he has a “next level.” Maybe that’s talk, or perhaps we started to see that after he returned from injury in late March and had 15 points (7G / 8A) in his final 13 games while averaging 4.2 SOG/gm. The best-case scenario is that Larkin maintains that elite shot volume in 2024-25, gets 300-plus shots on goal, and turns into a 45-goal scorer.
Nazem Kadri (CGY – C) – ADP: 157.7
I’ve always preferred waiting until later to draft centres because the position is so deep. Every year, you can find gems in the 12th round or later. Last year, it was Vincent Trocheck (ADP: 145.9), Robert Thomas (ADP: 161.5) and Wyatt Johnston (ADP: 169.1). This year, Kadri could be one of those players.
Kadri is being drafted in the 14th round and should drastically outproduce that. In a down year in Calgary, Kadri still managed to record 75 points (29G / 46A) and 277 SOG. That’s similar production as Trocheck mentioned above, who provides a little more hits but is going eight rounds earlier.
What makes Kadri the most interesting is what he was able to do after Elias Lindholm was traded last year. He went from playing 18:13 ATOI to 18:44 ATOI and finished the season with 36 points (13G / 23A) in his final 33 games. The veteran was also on-pace for 293 shots during that time, a mark that would clear his career-high by 16 shots. He built great chemistry with Andrei Kuzmenko, and that duo has already been skating together in training camp, with the Flames’ goal leader from 2023-24 (Yegor Sharangovich) on the other wing. Kadri and Kuzmenko averaged 3.9 GF/60, 2.9 xGF/60and 30.9 SCF/60 in 200 5v5 minutes together. That’s an impressive floor to build on in their first full season together.
Brock Nelson (NYI – C) – ADP: 159.1
Nelson is in a similar boat to Kadri. He’s been a consistent producer in recent years but isn’t a “sexy” name and drops late in the draft as a result. Nelson has scored 30-plus goals in three straight years and ranks 21st in the NHL, with 107 goals (35.7 goals per season). His production profile looks extremely similar to Roope Hintz’s, but you can get him six rounds later. It’s fair to argue that Hintz has more upside due to his elite linemates, but the disparity isn’t 64 picks. With Nelson, you can pencil in for 35 goals, 30 assists and 225 shots, and he has upside if the Islanders’ power play can improve at all.
Left Wings
Matt Boldy (LW/RW) – ADP: 74.4
Boldy has averaged 32 goals and 38 assists (70 points) per 82 games over the last two seasons, but he could jump up a tier or two this season. If the second half of last year was any indication, Boldy could be a 90-point player in 2024-25. He scored 13 goals with 23 assists (36 points) while averaging over 20 minutes per game in his final 32 games.
Boldy and Brad Marchand are players at opposite ends of the age curve and have already had similar numbers over the last two seasons. Marchand is going at the start of the sixth round, while Boldy is going at the start of the seventh round and is the significantly higher upside pick.
Nikolaj Ehlers (WPG – LW) – ADP: 137.9
It feels like I mention Ehlers as a value pick every season, and while he’s been a solid producer, he’s never had a true breakout season. The closest thing we’ve had to a breakout from him was in 2022 when he had 55 points (28G / 27A) in 62 games. That’s a 37-goal, 36-assist pace. His career-high usage (18:04) fuelled that production. Since then, he’s been under 16 minutes per night. This year, Ehlers will get a fresh start under new head coach Scott Arniel, and the hope is that Arniel will utilize the Dane more than Rick Bowness did in the two previous seasons. An additional minute or two will go a long way in boosting Ehlers’ production. Ehlers is also a pending UFA at the end of the season, and he certainly wouldn’t be the first player to have a breakout campaign in a contract year.
Pavel Buchnevich (STL – C/LW) – ADP: 154.2
In his first three seasons in St. Louis, Buchnevich has been near a point-per-game player, tallying 206 points (83G / 123A) in 216 games. That’s a 32-goal and 47-assist (79 points) pace, but Buchnevich missed 30 games due to injury. Durability concerns aside, Buchnevich logs heavy minutes for the Blues and his role is locked in. In recent years, his production compares favourably to Jesper Bratt of the New Jersey Devils. The difference on draft day is massive, though. Bratt is being drafted in the fifth round (ADP: 55.8), while Buchnevich is falling into the 13th round, 99 picks later.
Right Wings
Cole Caufield (LW/RW) – ADP: 81.8
Caufield missed a lot of time due to injuries in his first two full NHL seasons but appeared in all 82 games last year. Caufield shot the puck a ton, ranking seventh in the NHL with 314 shots. However, of the 274 instances where a forward has had 300-plus shots in a season (since 1960), Caufield’s 28 goals were the 17th fewest. He had similar shot volume the year prior and converted at a much higher rate (16.5%), giving hope that he could get to 40 goals this season. And with that shot volume, he could be a 50-goal threat if everything goes right.
In the second half of last season, he was on pace for 33 goals and 41 assists while shooting just 9.8 percent. It was encouraging to see the assist totals pop, and he’s a positive regression candidate in the SH% department. There’s far too much upside here to pass on in the late eighth round.
Jordan Kyrou (STL – C/RW) – ADP: 128.8
Kyrou broke out in 2021-22 with 27 goals and 48 assists (75), and he’s been excellent in the last two seasons. Since the breakout, his ice time has skyrocketed (18:10 ATOI), and his shot volume has followed. He’s averaged 3.3 SOG/gm the last two seasons and is tied for 32nd in the NHL with 68 goals. He’s failed to get back over 40 assists, but that 2022 season seems like an outlier due to the 14.1 on-ice SH%. It’s safer to bank on 35-goal, 35-assist, and 250-shot production; anything extra is gravy. You’ll get similar production out of Kyrou in the middle of the 11th round as with Kyle Connor in the early fourth round.
JJ Peterka (BUF – RW) – ADP: 163.8
Peterka is another player who loves to shoot the puck, and a breakout in 2024-25 seems easy to project. Last season, he played almost exclusively as a second-line winger with Dylan Cozens but this year he’s already skating on the top line with Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch in training camp. At the end of last year, we saw that the Sabres would trust him to play big minutes, as the 22-year-old averaged 20:26 TOI/GM in his final 13 games. It’s a small sample size, but he averaged 3.5 SOG/gm in that time and second seven goals. It’s a guarantee that he’ll play more than the 16:24 he averaged last year, and his production should spike. In the somewhat limited ice-time (156:34) Peterka-Thompson-Tuch did see together last year, they scored at an outrageous rate (5.0 GF/60) while averaging a strong 31.4 SCF/60. Without Thompson and Tuch those numbers dropped to 3.0 GF/60 and 28.5 SCF/60 for Peterka.
Defensemen
John Carlson (WSH – D) – ADP: 112.5
Carlson will be 35 years old in January, likely affecting his ADP, but it shouldn’t cloud your vision in re-draft leagues. Last year, Carlson was his same old self. He scored double-digit goals like he has in six of the last seven years and complied 40-plus assists as he has in five of the last seven seasons. Carlson likely doesn’t have league-winning upside, but he is just a few years removed from a 17-goal, 71-point season, so you never know. Jakob Chychrun provides more internal competition for the PP1 spot, but it’s a role Carlson has filled for a decade, so his job is probably fairly secure. If you elect to go heavy on forwards and/or goalies in the early rounds, Carlson is an excellent mid-round target to ensure you don’t completely punt the D spot.
Zach Werenski (CBJ – D) – ADP: 115.8
Durability has been the biggest issue for Werenski in the last four seasons, appearing in just 186 of 302 games (61.6%). However, he played 70 games last season, his most since 2019. Despite playing for a Blue Jackets team that was 24th in the NHL in goals, Werenski was 12th among defensemen in points (57), tied for 17th in goals (17) and eighth in SOG (202). Yet he’s being drafted as the No.29 defenseman this season, tremendous value in the 10th round. It’s fair to wonder how good the Columbus offence will be, but it wasn’t good last year, and it didn’t impact Werenski’s fantasy value too much.
Justin Faulk (STL – D) – ADP: 165.8
With Torey Krug out for the season, a full-time spot on the Blues’ top power-play unit is open, and Faulk is the favourite to take that spot. “We know Faulker can run a power play,” Blues head coach Drew Bannister told the Post-Dispatch in an interview about replacing Krug on the PP. “I like that he shoots the puck, and that was something that we harped on last year was getting more pucks to the net. Obviously, having more traffic, more of a stabilizing force around the net on the power play. He can shoot a puck.”
The 2023-24 season was disappointing for Faulk but their are encouraging signs that he will bounce-back this year. He was still shooting more than two times per game but scored just two goals due to a 1.5 SH%; he averages 5.8 percent for his career. With positive regression in that department, Faulk should return to a double-digit goal-scorer. As for the assists, he was on-pace for 38, which is in line with what we’ve seen from Faulk during his time in St. Louis. In addition to solid offensive impact, Faulk also provides additional value in banger leagues. He won’t go for 200-plus hits like a Moritz Seider, but he should be around 130. Faulk is being drafted as the No.46 defenseman, a low-end No.4 blueliner. In reality, he provides value similar to that of Charlie McAvoy, who is going in the sixth round. You can get Faulk in the 14th.
Goalies
Tristan Jarry (PIT – G) – ADP: 146.2
Jarry enters the season as the No.1 netminder for a fringe playoff team but has competition for starts from Alex Nedeljkovic. Jarry finished very poorly last season but has reportedly shown up to camp in the “best shape he’s ever been,” according to head coach Mike Sullivan. Whether that has an actual impact this season is up for debate, but overall, Jarry’s 2023-24 season wasn’t as bad as it looked on the surface. He had a Quality Start in 60.4 percent of his games, ranked 15th among qualified starters (min.25 GP). The issue was when he was bad, he was terrible. He gave up four-plus goals in 14 of his 51 games (27.5 percent). However, Jarry was still 24th in the NHL in Goals Saved Above Expected/60, ahead of names like Juuse Saros (ADP: 27.6), Jake Oettinger (ADP: 29.8), Andrei Vasilevskiy (ADP: 37.3), Stuart Skinner (ADP: 47.8), Ilya Sorokin (ADP: 49.5), and Pyotr Kohchetkov (ADP: 90.6), all who are going much earlier than Jarry. He’s not the safest pick on draft day and will probably be frustrating to own at times this season, but he’s being drafted as the No.26 goalie and can drastically outperform that.
Filip Gustavsson (MIN – G) – ADP: 154.7
Gustavsson wasn’t as good as Jarry last year and was a massive bust after being selected as the No.10 fantasy netminder (ADP: 66.6). He finished nowhere close to the 2.10 GAA and .931 SV% he posted in 2023, finishing with a 3.06 GAA and .899 SV% in 45 games. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle; he’s not as good as in 2023, but not as bad as in 2024. And drafting Gustavsson is more about making a bet on the Minnesota Wild. Last year, the Wild were fourth in the NHL in xGA/60 (2.76), giving up the 11th fewest Scoring Chances Against/60 (27.4) and sixth-fewest High-Danger Chances Against/60 (10.7). They’re among the league’s best defensive teams, so Gustavsson will be well-insulated and should continue to see the bulk of the starts ahead of 39-year-old Marc-Andre Fleury. Jesper Wallstedt could also be in the mix but likely will only see extended NHL action if Gustavsson or Fleury get hurt or struggle mightily. GM Bill Guerin has said he wants to get Wallstedt more NHL action this season, but you can expect Gustavsson to carry the load if he’s playing well. Gustavsson is being drafted as the No.28 goalie off the board but will probably finish as a mid-range No.2 fantasy netminder.
Dustin Wolf (CGY – G) – ADP: 165.5
Someone has to start games in Calgary after Jacob Markstrom was traded to the New Jersey Devils and Wolf comes in as the favourite to lead the team in starts. His only competition is Dan Vladar, who owns an .888 SV% in the last two seasons. Wolf hasn’t acclimated himself to the NHL like the Flames would have hoped to this point, but his AHL numbers remain elite. So this is a bet on Wolf’s talent finally translating to the NHL in 2024-25. The good news is it’s a no-risk/high-reward pick because he isn’t being drafted until the 14th round.
According to the Sportsbooks, Calgary is projected to have the sixth-fewest points this season, so Wolf isn’t going to win you 30 games, but as your No.3 or even No.4 fantasy netminder, you can be picky with his matchups. And if the Flames end up being better than expected, he’ll be a total steal.