<p>Studying the Average Draft Position (ADP) and finding value in the draft is imperative to building a championship foundation on draft day. It’s also equally important to avoid players who are going too early. Below, I’ve outlined ten players whose ADPs I would try to avoid on draft day. I’m fading these players at their ADPs, but I’ve included my ranking for each player, and if they drop close to that spot, they will make fine selections.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Quinn Hughes (VAN – D) – ADP: 17.9 | My Rank: 28</h2>



<p>Hughes is coming off a career year, scoring 17 goals with 75 assists (92 points) in 82 games. As a result, he’s being drafted earlier than I’m comfortable with. There are a lot of Hughes’ numbers from a season ago that may not be sustainable this year. Firstly, he shot 8.5 percent on a career-best 199 shots. He was a 4.9 percent career shooter before last year, so it’s conceivable that he will give back about seven goals this year. The difference between 17 and 10 goals is drastic; he would go from tied for sixth among defensemen to tied for 23rd.</p><div class="injected-ad injected-video" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="0" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="179"></div>



<p>Secondly, his assist production is likely to come down as well. Hughes carried a 13.9 on-ice SH%, and players like Dakota Joshua (21.4 SH%), Nils Hoglander (20.0 SH%), Brock Boeser (19.6 SH%), and J.T. Miller (19.1 SH%) all carried SH% way higher than what’s considered sustainable for them. Hughes, who led the team in assists, will likely feel that regression more than anyone.</p>



<p>Thirdly, he’s going ahead of defensemen like Evan Bouchard and Roman Josi, both whom I have ranked ahead of Hughes and have much more stable goal production.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Sam Reinhart (FLA – C/RW) – ADP: 24.7 | My Rank: 54</h2>



<p>Reinhart exploded for 57 goals and 94 points in a contract year and earned an eight-year deal worth $8.625M AAV. Reinhart went from being one of the best fantasy sleeper picks to being a potential bust pick this year. He shot 24.5 percent and scored 27 power-play goals, marks that he almost certainly can’t repeat. Reinhart is still a candidate for 40-plus goals, but he doesn’t provide the high-end assist or shot production you’d expect from a late-2nd/early-3rd-round pick. I would let others take him at this ADP, and you can almost certainly mimic his production a few rounds later.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="1" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="190"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Jeremy Swayman (BOS – G) – ADP: 32.6 | My Rank: 51</h2>



<p>If Swayman was signed right now, I wouldn’t have too big of an issue with him going in the middle of the third round, but if he’s unsigned and without a clear end in sight, this is a very risky pick. Waiting to draft goalies is already a strategy I often use, so wasting this early of a pick on a goalie who could sit out is not worth the potential upside. I’m also not sold that the Bruins will hand him 65 percent of the starts just because Linus Ullmark is gone. Joonas Korpisalo has had a strong preseason and is good enough to start 30-to-35 games. It’s an easy pass for me when you look at the goalies that Swayman is going ahead of (Andrei Vaslievskiy, Sergei Bobrovsky, Stuart Skinner). The skaters in this spot, like Jason Robertson and Jake Guentzel, also feel like way better picks.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="2" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="149"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Chris Kreider (NYR – LW) – ADP: 36.4 | My Rank: 70</h2>



<p>This feels like two years ago all over again. Kreider exploded for 52 goals in 2022, and the regression was apparent, and he was a fade at ADP. Regression hit, and he was not a good draft pick. He bounced back with 39 goals and 36 last year, but it’s difficult to expect him to maintain that assist rate. His previous career-high was 25. Kreider is a one-trick pony who can chip in in banger leagues, but even the hits are declining; last year was his first season under 100 hits since his rookie season (2013), when he played only 23 games. There’s no reason to pick Kreider in the late third/early fourth round when you can get a similar player in Timo Meier (ADP: 63.1) in the early sixth round or Owen Tippett (ADP: 80.2) in the middle of the seventh round.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="3" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="143"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Adrian Kempe (LAK – C/RW) – ADP: 47.7 | My Rank: 69</h2>



<p>Kempe has a fantasy profile that is very similar to Kreider’s. Regression hit his SH% last year, but it didn’t crater his fantasy value too much because he drastically increased his assist production. Kemper bumped his career-high in assists by 21 thanks to a 12.8 on-ice SH% and 22 secondary assists. A few of those helpers are bound to dry up, and even if he gets to 35, he probably won’t be worth the late fourth-round pick. Kempe isn’t as obvious as a fade as Kreider, but I’d prefer to wait for players like Meier and Tippett several rounds later. </p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Thatcher Demko (VAN – G) – ADP: 65.3 | My Rank: 113</h2>



<p>Like Swayman, Demko carries a lot of risk. It doesn’t seem like we’re going to get a firm timeline on his return, and even when he’s back, the Canucks will likely be very cautious with his workload. Vancouver is a team with plans for a deep playoff run and two other capable goalies, Arturs Silovs and Kevin Lankinen, so he’ll likely play less than in years past. Tying up a sixth-round pick and taking Demko as your No.1 fantasy netminder feels like a bad strategy. If his ADP continues to drop, Demko will have value this season, but the upside doesn’t outweigh the risk at 65.3.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="4" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="207"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Brock Boeser (VAN – RW) – ADP: 66.8 | My Rank: 98</h2>



<p>Boeser went into 2023-24 with a 12.7 career SH% but shot 19.6 percent and scored 40 goals for the first time in his career. Regression already started setting in last year, giving you an idea of what to expect this season. He had 27 goals (23.3 SH%) in his first 42 games but had just 13 goals (14.8 SH%) in his final 39 games. He was on a 27-goal and 29-assist per 82-game pace during that time. Those numbers are closer to what he’s done in previous years and not worthy of a sixth-round pick. If he’s not as good as his first half or not as bad as his second half, the truth could lay somewhere in the middle, making him a 30-30 player. You could match and maybe even exceed Boeser’s production with Lucas Raymond (ADP: 96.9) 30 picks later.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="5" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="142"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Brad Marchand (BOS – LW) – ADP: 68.2 | My Rank: 94</h2>



<p>Marchand is 36 years old and will likely find himself with Charlie Coyle and Co. way more frequently than with David Pastrnak on the top line. Last season, just 37 percent of his 5v5 ice time came on a line with Pastrnak, and his on-ice results plummeted without him. Marchand and Pastrnak had a 3.7 GF/60 and 3.0 xGF/60 together, and Marchand had a 2.4 GF/60 and 2.4 xGF/60 without him. Without prolonged time on the top line, Marchand will not be above a point-per-game, and his contributions in other categories are easily replaceable. Alexis Lafrenière (ADP: 102.0) will be available three rounds later and will, at the very least, have comparable numbers to Marchand.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Gustav Forsling (FLA – D) – ADP: 92.0 | My Rank: 142</h2>



<p>Forsling is a tremendous real-life NHL defenseman, but he’s not an eighth-round fantasy talent. Unless you’re in a plus/minus-only league (if you are, quit), Forsling’s ADP makes no sense. His last three seasons have been solid from a Fantasy perspective; he’s averaged 11 goals, 28 assists, a plus-39 rating, 171 SOG, 75 hits and 98 blocked shots. He covers a lot of categories, but all at a mostly replaceable level. Perhaps his ADP was inflated because fantasy owners expected him to take over PP1 for the departed Brandon Montour, but that doesn’t look like it will be the case. In fact, it looks like he’s third in line, at best. Currently, Adam Boqvist is running that unit with Aaron Ekblad on PP2. A fantasy defenseman’s upside is directly tied to his PP usage. Without it, Forsling is likely headed for another solid season, but one that makes him more of a low-end No.3/high-end No.4 fantasy option, not the No.18 overall defenseman like he’s being drafted as right now. </p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="6" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="284"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Devon Toews (COL – D) – ADP: 93.2 | My Rank: 140</h2>



<p>Like Forsling, Toews is a tremendous real-life hockey player, but only some of that translates to fantasy hockey. Despite a lack of PP usage, Toews always seems to get to 50 points (three straight seasons). I think that production is a little fragile because he’s been reliant on playing with elite talent. That hasn’t changed; he should still be paired with Cale Makar and see a ton of ice time with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. Nevertheless, 96 defensemen have at least 50 assists over the last three years, and Toews has the third-highest secondary assist percentage (65.6%). Secondary assists tend to be very noisy and are subject to heavy regression. The other issue with Toews is his path to PP1 usage is exceptionally narrow. A Makar injury is the only way for it to happen. I still like Toews as a high-end No.3 fantasy defenseman, but I am concerned about taking him off the board as the 19th defenseman. Shayne Gostisbehere, who is running PP1 in Carolina, has averaged close to 50 points per season in the last three years and is available 57 picks later.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="7" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="187"></div>
