Going into your Fantasy Hockey Draft with a plan is critical to making sure you leave with a Championship calibre team.
You can stare at projections all pre-season and print off my Top-300 rankings, but you need to know who to target in each round to avoid taking players in rounds you shouldn’t.
You may not have the time to dig through all of the ADPs (average draft position), so I’m here to help you plan whether you have the first overall pick or the 12th pick. Over the next week, I’ll release the “Perfect Draft” at each position, so you have targets in each round. Using Yahoo’s ADPs you can project who will be available at each draft spot.
I’m using the following format:
- 12 Teams
- 16 Round Snake Draft
- Lineup: C, C, LW, LW, RW, RW, D, D, D, D, G, G, BN, BN, BN, BN
- Skater Scoring: Goals, Assists, Power-Play Points, Shots on Goal, Plus/Minus, Hits
- Goalie Scoring: Wins, GAA, SV%, Shutouts
Previous Perfect Drafts
(2) Round 1, Pick 2: Leon Draisaitl (EDM – C/LW)
You’d rather have the No.1 overall pick and get Connor McDavid. Still, Draisaitl is a nice consolation prize if you land No.2. Draisaitl was outstanding last season, scoring 50-plus goals for the second straight season and the third time in his career while also posting a career-high in assists (76) and points (128). The Oilers’ power play was historically good, and Draisaitl led the NHL in power-play goals (32) and was second to McDavid in power-play points (62). McDavid is in a Tier of his own, and Draisaitl is in the second Tier on his own. Over the last three seasons, he has 58 more points than No.3 on the list (Nathan MacKinnon), averaging 52 goals and 70 assists (122 points) per 82 games.
(23) Round 2, Pick 11: Elias Pettersson (VAN – C)
Pettersson is coming off of a career-best season, scoring 39 goals with 63 assists (102 points). He was able to do so, thanks to a significant bump in playing time (18:36 to 20:33 ATOI), which led to a drastic increase in shots on goal (192 to 257). The new shot volume will allow him to be a consistent threat for 40-plus goals. He should also see an increase in power-play goals in 2024. Pettersson had more PP shot attempts than any year in his career but shot just 9.1 percent–his career average entering last season was 18.0 percent. He could realistically double his PPG output from 2023. While his goal-scoring doesn’t seem at risk for negative regression, his assist totals do. His 14.3 on-ice SH% and 86.2 5v5 IPP are both very high, and it concerns me that he may be unable to maintain 60-plus helpers. Still, a 45-goal, 55-assist season is as good of production as you’ll likely find at the 2-3 turn.
Others to consider: Tim Stutzle, Mika Zibanejad
(26) Round 3, Pick 2: Kyle Connor (WPG – LW)
Last season was relatively disappointing for Connor, who was selected in the early third round. He’s dropping toward the back of the fourth round this year, but I’m not concerned about taking him where he went in 2022-23. After a 93-point season in 2021-22, you expected more than 31 goals and 49 assists (80 points) last season, but there’s still reason to believe he can be a 40-plus goal, 50-plus assist player this season. From 2018 to 2022, Connor shot 15.4 percent but converted at just 11.4 percent last year. Positive regression to his SH% will have him back over 40 goals this season, and he’s showcased in back-to-back seasons that he can register close to 50 assists.
Others to consider: Tim Stutzle, Connor Hellebuyck
(47) Round 4, Pick 11: Juuse Saros (NSH – G)
Saros is dropping to the early fifth round and is the last what I would consider “elite” goalie on the board. I am typically higher on Saros than the general public, and this year is no exception. Plan and simple, Saros is one of the best goalies in the world and one of the few remaining workhorses. He has led the NHL in games played in each of the last two seasons and ranks third in wins (71), fourth in SV% (.918), tied for 10th in shutouts (6), and 16th in GAA (2.67) over that span. The Predators made some solid offseason additions to go with a solid group of young, up-and-coming players and will probably be in the mix for a playoff spot in the Central Division. Expect Saros to be among the league leaders in games played and wins yet again while posting his typically strong splits–career 2.58 GAA and .919 SV%.
Others to consider: Aleksander Barkov
(50) Round 5, Pick 2: Evan Bouchard (EDM – D)
Of the players being drafted in the top 100, Bouchard has one of the highest differences between my ranking (No.38) and his ADP (73.8). After Tyson Barrie was traded last season, Bouchard finished the regular season with 19 points (5G / 14A) in his final 21 games, averaging 20:54 TOI. He was even better in the playoffs, collecting 17 points (4G / 13A) in 12 games. In total, he had nine goals and 27 assists (36 points) in 33 games without Barrie on the roster. The Oilers power-play should continue to roll at a historic clip in 2023-24, and Bouchard should reap the benefits of being one of the focal points on that unit. Barrie averaged 31 PPP per 82 games in his three years with the Oilers, so you can expect at least a 20-point jump for Bouchard. He has as much upside as any defenseman and could be a league-winning pick from anywhere between the fifth and seventh rounds.
Others to consider: Aleksander Barkov, Alex DeBrincat, Miro Heiskanen, Quinn Hughes
(71) Round 6, Pick 11: Andrei Svechnikov (CAR – LW/RW)
Svechnikov’s drastic dip in ADP is a bit puzzling. Last season, he was being drafted in the early fourth round; this year he’s going in the middle of the seventh. Sure, he underwent season-ending knee surgery last March, but he’s participating in training camp and could be ready for opening night. Even if he misses the first few games, the upside is worth a late sixth-round pick. Before last season, he appeared in 283 of 288 games (98.3%) in his first four seasons, so durability shouldn’t be a concern. Prior to getting hurt last season, he was on pace for 30 goals, 41 assists (71 points), 263 SOG, and 179 hits. At age 23, this is the time you can expect a breakout season from Svechnikov, who has already established a very safe 30-goal, 40-assist, 250-shot, 180-hit floor. He’s a category stuffer, and one of the reasons taking centres early is OK if you have to.
Others to consider: John Carlson
(74) Round 7, Pick 2: Kevin Fiala (LAK – LW)
Fiala’s first season in Los Angeles went well. He scored 23 goals with 49 assists (72 points) in 69 games. The 58-assist, 86-point pace would have set new career bests for Fiala, who will likely find himself with a new centre this season. The Kings added Pierre-Luc Dubois in the offseason, and the two are expected to play together in the Kings’ top-6. Fiala bounced around from the first to third line last year, so it will be helpful for him to have a more cemented role in 2023-24. Fiala ranks 26th in the NHL with 157 points (56G / 101A) and tied for 29th in points-per-game (1.04) over the last two seasons, so he is a safe and productive pick in the seventh round.
Others to consider: John Carlson, Brent Burns, Frederik Andersen, Johnny Gaudreau, Adrian Kempe, Jordan Kyrou, Tristan Jarry
(95) Round 8, Pick 11: Darcy Kuemper (WSH – G)
With an elite goalie in Saros already on the team, adding Kuemper in the eighth round is a safe pick that will ensure you have strong goaltending throughout the season. While he won’t wow you with his win totals or splits, Kuemper has been a workhorse for the last two seasons, starting a combined 113 games, fifth-most in the NHL. The move from Colorado to Washington last season predictably hurt his win total and splits, but he was still tied for second in the NHL in shutouts (5), 14th in the NHL in wins (22), tied for 18th in SV% (.909), and tied for 22nd in GAA (2.87). He was a strong No.2 fantasy option last season and should continue to be in 2023-24.
Others to consider: Evander Kane, Thatcher Demko
(98) Round 9, Pick 2: Sam Reinhart (FLA – C/RW)
Reinhart is a great floor, minimal upside pick that can solidify your fantasy team and allow you to take gambles in other rounds. He has quietly been very productive in his first two seasons with the Panthers, sitting in a tie for 35th in points (149) with Clayton Keller and Patrick Kane. Reinhart has back-to-back 30-plus goal seasons and has averaged 42.5 assists during that time. Like I said, he won’t pop for 90 points this year, but you can lock in 30 goals and 40-plus assists with decent shot volume and 0.5 hits per game.
Others to consider: Evander Kane, Noah Dobson, Jonathan Marchessault
(119) Round 10, Pick 11: Kris Letang (PIT – D)
The offseason addition of Erik Karlsson seems to have the fantasy community frightened to draft Letang this season. Not me. Penguins head coach Mike Sullivan has already said that he plans to use Karlsson and Letang on the same power-play, and Letang will continue to be their most heavily utilized defenseman at 5v5. Health has been the biggest issue for Letang in recent years, but he still ranks seventh among defensemen in points (154), tied for eighth in PPP (58), ninth in SOG (507), tied for 19th in goals (29), and 20th in hits (425) over that span. He’s as good of a category filler as you will find on the blueline and is coming at a massive draft day discount–his ADP was 59.5 last year, it’s 124.3 this year.
Others to consider: Jacob Markstrom
(122) Round 11, Pick 2: Cole Caufield (MTL – LW/RW)
Taking a player like Reinhart in the ninth round allows you to take bigger swings in the later rounds, and that’s what Caufield is. The Canadiens’ winger has missed a combined 51 games over the last two seasons but has showcased high-end goal-scoring upside. If he can stay healthy in 2023-24, Caufield is a player who could have 280-plus shots on goal, which would likely lead to 40-plus goals. The assist totals have left much to be desired so far, but he could be an Adrian Kempe-type player this season with far fewer hits. The upside is certainly there, but the injury risk is real, however, that is more than compensated for in his 12th-round ADP.
Others to consider: Jacob Markstrom, Mark Scheifele, Vladimir Tarasenko, Elias Lindholm
(143) Round 12, Pick 11: Filip Forsberg (NSH – LW)
I don’t think we’ll see Forsberg get back to the 84 points (42G / 42A) he posted in 2022, but he’s certainly capable of being a 30-goal, 40-assist threat with 200-plus shots and 100-plus hits. He’s a category contributor, and if he continues what he did in an injury-plagued 2023 season, Forsberg could be a huge steal if he stays healthy this year. The veteran winger was on pace for career-highs in shots (258) and hits (141). The problem is, he’s unlikely to play a full 82-game schedule. He did so in three straight seasons from 2015 to 2017, but since then, he’s missed 101 games (22.3 percent) in six seasons. Still, as a 12th-round pick, this selection has plenty of upside, especially if he clicks with newcomer Ryan O’Reilly.
Others to consider: Patrik Laine, Adin Hill
(146) Round 13, Pick 2: Zach Werenski (CBJ – D)
Werenski missed 69 games last season after suffering a separated shoulder and torn labrum in mid-November. Before getting hurt, he tallied eight points (3G / 5A) in 13 games. Injuries are likely why he’s falling so late into drafts this season, but the upside is impossible to ignore. He’s one of the best and most consistent goal-scorers on the blueline, averaging 16 goals per 82 games throughout his seven-year career. Werenski’s return to the lineup and some off-season acquisitions should help the Blue Jackets be a better offensive team in 2023-24, making Werenski one of the better No.3 fantasy defensemen to target in the final few rounds.
Others to consider: Patrik Laine, Adin Hill, Troy Terry, Nickolaj Ehlers
(167) Round 14, Pick 11: Bowen Byram (COL – D)
Byram has the talent to be a breakout star, but he’ll likely continue to be limited by the presence of Cale Makar and Devon Toews. Makar specifically will block his path to top power-play usage, but he has been prone to injury in recent years. Even with limited PP1 exposure over the last two seasons, Byram has averaged an impressive 17 goals and 30 assists per 82 games. He won’t maintain his 13.2 SH%, but he should be a double-digit goal threat if he can stay on the ice. As a No.4 fantasy defenseman, Byram has more upside than most. He also hits more than you might expect; he was on pace for 160 hits last year.
Others to consider: Owen Tippett, Josh Norris, Seth Jarvis
(170) Round 15, Pick 2: Cam Talbot (LAK – G)
Talbot was underwhelming in Ottawa last season, posting a 2.93 GAA and .898 SV% in 36 appearances. As a result, he had to take a one-year deal this offseason but landed in an ideal situation. Talbot will be battling with Pheonix Copley and David Rittich for starts in the Kings’ crease, a job that he should be able to win. Copley had a nice run with the Kings last season, but there’s a reason they acquired Joonas Korpisalo at the deadline. The Kings were among the best defensive teams in the NHL last year, ranking second in 5v5 xGA/60 and seventh in PK xGA/60. Korpisalo went from a 3.17 GAA and .911 SV% in Columbus’ system to a 2.13 GAA and .921 SV% with Los Angles. That’s the glow-up I’m expecting from Talbot this season. In his two seasons with the Wild, Talbot was tied for 17th with a .913 SV%. Those Wild teams were among the best defensive teams in the NHL, and Talbot stood tall. He’s one of my favourite late-round goalie targets as a No.3 Fantasy option.
Others to consider: Josh Norris, Nick Schmaltz, Jordan Binnington, Bryan Rust, Mike Matheson, Artturi Lehkonen
(191) Round 16, Pick 11: Barrett Hayton (ARI – C)
Hayton is going undrafted right now, and he’s a reason why you can wait to draft centre depth. Last season, he had just 14 points (5G / 9A) in his first 47 games while averaging just 16:03 TOI/gm. After that, he was locked on a line with Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz and took off in the second half of the season. Hayton finished with 29 points (14G / 15A) in his final 35 games–a 33-goal, 35-assist per 82-game pace. He broke into the NHL young, so he’s still just 23 years old and should be able to build on that late-season chemistry and success with Keller and Schmaltz. That line has been together throughout training camp, so look for Hayton to hit the ground running as your last-round pick or post-draft free-agent pickup.
Others to consider: Gabe Vilardi, Sean Couturier, Quinton Byfield, Filip Chytil, Tommy Novak, Ryan O’Reilly
The Team
C – Leon Draisaitl (EDM – C/LW)
C – Elias Pettersson (VAN – C)
LW – Kevin Fiala (LAK – LW)
LW – Kyle Connor (WPG – LW)
RW – Andrei Svechnikov (CAR – LW/RW)
RW – Sam Reinhart (FLA – C/RW)
D – Evan Bouchard (EDM – D)
D – Kris Letang (PIT – D)
D – Zach Werenski (CBJ – D)
D – Bowen Byram (COL – D)
G – Juuse Saros (NSH – G)
G – Darcy Kuemper (WSH – G)
BN – Cole Caufield (MTL – LW/RW)
BN – Filip Forsberg (NSH – LW)
BN – Cam Talbot (LAK – G)
BN – Barrett Hayton (ARI – C)