Going into your Fantasy Hockey Draft with a plan is critical to making sure you leave with a Championship calibre team.
You can stare at projections all pre-season and print off my Top-300 rankings, but you need to know who to target in each round to avoid taking players in rounds you shouldn’t.
You may not have the time to dig through all of the ADPs (average draft position), so I’m here to help you plan whether you have the first overall pick or the 12th pick. Over the next week, I’ll release the “Perfect Draft” at each position, so you have targets in each round. Using Yahoo’s ADPs you can project who will be available at each draft spot.
I’m using the following format:
- 12 Teams
- 16 Round Snake Draft
- Lineup: C, C, LW, LW, RW, RW, D, D, D, D, G, G, BN, BN, BN, BN
- Skater Scoring: Goals, Assists, Power-Play Points, Shots on Goal, Plus/Minus, Hits
- Goalie Scoring: Wins, GAA, SV%, Shutouts
Previous Perfect Drafts
- The Perfect Draft from the No.1 Spot
- The Perfect Draft from the No.2 Spot
- The Perfect Draft from the No.3 Spot (coming soon…)
- The Perfect Draft from the No.4 Spot (coming soon…)
- The Perfect Draft from the No.5 Spot (coming soon…)
- The Perfect Draft from the No.6 Spot
- The Perfect Draft from the No.7 Spot (coming soon…)
- The Perfect Draft from the No.8 Spot (coming soon…)
- The Perfect Draft from the No.9 Spot (coming soon…)
- The Perfect Draft from the No.10 Spot (coming soon…)
- The Perfect Draft from the No.11 Spot (coming soon…)
- The Perfect Draft from the No.12 Spot
(6) Round 1, Pick 6: Auston Matthews (TOR – C)
Matthews dealt with injuries that affected his shot last year, and his goal total dipped from 60 to 40. Back to full strength this season, Matthews is dropping a few more spots than we’re used to, making him a great value pick in the middle of the first round. Matthews has the second-best odds (+350) to win the Rocket Richard (most goals), so the sportsbooks expect a bounce-back from the 26-year-old. Over the last three seasons, Matthews has led the NHL in shots (370 per 82 games), and if his SH% rebounds as expected, he could have his second 60-goal season. Another feather in Matthews’ cap is that his assist totals have jumped up in recent years, giving him legitimate 60-goal, 50-assist upside.
Others to consider: Nikita Kucherov, Mikko Rantanen, Jack Hughes
(19) Round 2, Pick 7: Tim Stutzle (OTT – C/LW)
Last season was Stutzle’s coming out party, as he scored 39 goals with 51 assists (90 points) in 78 games. It will be difficult for him to maintain his 17.1 SH%, but he should still be comfortably around 30 goals with high-end assist upside. Stutzle is a minute-eater (21:16 ATOI last season) who will fill categories for you. In addition to the impressive point totals, Stutzle was top-30 in PPP (28) and had 100-plus hits for the second-straight year. Stutzle gets a draft day boost, thanks to his dual-position eligibility.
Others to consider: Jake Oettinger, Elias Pettersson, Mika Zibanejad
(30) Round 3, Pick 6: Kyle Connor (WPG – LW)
The 2022-23 season was relatively disappointing for Connor, who was selected in the early third round. He’s dropping toward the back of the fourth round this year, but that’s an overreaction, in my opinion. After a 93-point season in 2021-22, you expected more than 31 goals and 49 assists (80 points) last year, but there’s still reason to believe he can be a 40-plus goal, 50-plus assist player in 2023-24. From 2018 to 2022, Connor shot 15.4 percent but converted at just 11.4 percent last year. Positive regression to his SH% will have him back over 40 goals this season, and he’s showcased in back-to-back seasons that he can register close to 50 assists.
Others to consider: Aleksander Barkov, Roman Josi, Connor Hellebuyck
(43) Round 4, Pick 7: Juuse Saros (NSH – G)
Saros is dropping to the early fifth round and is the last what I would consider “elite” goalie on the board. I am typically higher on Saros than the general public, and this year is no exception. Plan and simple, Saros is one of the best goalies in the world and one of the few remaining workhorses. He has led the NHL in games played in each of the last two seasons and ranks third in wins (71), fourth in SV% (.918), tied for 10th in shutouts (6), and 16th in GAA (2.67) over that span. The Predators made some intriguing offseason additions to go with a solid group of young, up-and-coming players and will probably be in the mix for a playoff spot in the Central Division. Expect Saros to be among the league leaders in games played and wins yet again while posting his typically strong splits–career 2.58 GAA and .919 SV%.
Others to consider: Aleksander Barkov, Roman Josi, J.T. Miller
(54) Round 5, Pick 6: Alex DeBrincat (DET – LW/RW)
DeBrincat is coming off a mediocre season, scoring 27 goals with 39 assists (66 points) in 82 games. He was traded to the Detroit Red Wings this offseason, where he’s expected to line up with Dylan Larkin on the top line. The Michigan native is a prolific goal-scorer who shot just 10.3 percent last season after shooting 15.5 percent from 2018 to 2022. No disrespect to Shane Pinto, but the Josh Norris injury last season left DeBrincat without a high-end centre to play with; he’ll get that with Larkin this season. It’s easy to project 40-plus goals with 35-plus assists for DeBrincat, who will also chip in around 100 hits.
Others to consider: Aleksander Barkov, Miro Heiskanen
(67) Round 6, Pick 7: Evan Bouchard (EDM – D)
Of the players being drafted in the top 100, Bouchard has one of the highest differences between my ranking (No.38) and his ADP (73.8). After Tyson Barrie was traded last season, Bouchard finished the regular season with 19 points (5G / 14A) in his final 21 games, averaging 20:54 TOI. He was even better in the playoffs, collecting 17 points (4G / 13A) in 12 games. In total, he had nine goals and 27 assists (36 points) in 33 games without Barrie on the roster. The Oilers power-play should continue to roll at a historic clip in 2023-24, and Bouchard should reap the benefits of being one of the focal points on that unit. Barrie averaged 31 PPP per 82 games in his three years with the Oilers, so you can expect at least a 20-point jump for Bouchard. He has as much upside as any defenseman and could be a league-winning pick from anywhere between the fifth and seventh rounds.
Others to consider: Kevin Fiala
(78) Round 7, Pick 6: Andrei Svechnikov (CAR – LW/RW)
Svechnikov’s drastic dip in ADP is a bit inexplicable. Last season, he was drafted in the early fourth round; this year, he’s going in the middle of the seventh. Sure, he underwent season-ending knee surgery last March, but he’s participating in training camp and could be ready for opening night. Even if he misses the first few games, the upside is worth a middle-round pick. Before last season, he appeared in 283 of 288 games (98.3%) in his first four seasons, so durability shouldn’t be a concern. And before getting hurt last season, he was on pace for 30 goals, 41 assists (71 points), 263 SOG, and 179 hits. At age 23, this is the time you can expect a breakout season from Svechnikov, who has already established a very safe 30-goal, 40-assist, 250-shot, 180-hit floor. He’s a category filler and a great draft day value.
Others to consider: Brent Burns, Johnny Gaudreau, Adrian Kempe
(91) Round 8, Pick 7: John Carlson (WSH – D)
Carlson missed a lot of 2022-23 after taking a snapshot to the head in late December. However, when he was in the lineup, he had 29 points (9G / 20A) in 40 games, so there’s still reason to believe he has 15-goal and 40-plus assist upside in his 15th season. The Capitals were still an above-average power-play last year despite missing Carlson and Nicklas Backstrom for a combined 85 games. With both veterans now healthy, the Capitals could return to being a top-10 unit this season and ensure that Carlson is a great value pick in the middle of the eighth round.
Others to consider: Tristan Jarry, Evander Kane, Stuart Skinner
(102) Round 9, Pick 6: Sam Reinhart (FLA – C/RW)
Reinhart isn’t a pick that you get super excited about, but he’s a steadying force in the middle of your draft. While other players come with uncertainty, Reinhart is a safe pick who should return at least 30 goals, 40 assists, 200 shots and 50 hits. If you want to take a more significant swing, I understand entirely, but I like pencilling in Reinhart’s consistent production to complement the high-end upside you get with the first eight picks.
Others to consider: Noah Dobson, Travis Konecny, Jonathan Marchessault
(115) Round 10, Pick 7: Kris Letang (PIT – D)
Letang has become a staple of this ‘Perfect Draft’ series. Head coach Mike Sullivan has already stated that Letang and Erik Karlsson will work together on the Penguins’ top power-play unit, alleviating any concern about Karlsson crushing his usage this season. Health has been the biggest issue for Letang in recent years, but he still ranks seventh among defensemen in points (154), tied for eighth in PPP (58), ninth in SOG (507), tied for 19th in goals (29), and 20th in hits (425) over that span. He’s as good of a category stuffer as you will find on the blueline and is coming at a massive draft day discount–his ADP was 59.5 last season, it’s 124.3 this year.
Others to consider: Jonathan Huberdeau, Dylan Cozens
(126) Round 11, Pick 6: Jacob Markstrom (CGY – G)
Markstrom is one of my favourite mid-round, No.2 goalie options. He’s coming off a disappointing season, but the entire Flames roster struggled last year. They are expected to improve in 2023-24, and Markstrom is a prime bounce-back candidate. Despite their struggles, the Flames remained one of the best defensive teams in the NHL and should make life relatively easy for Markstrom this season. He’s averaged 61 starts per 82 games in three years for the Flames, so he’ll be a workhorse as long as Dustin Wolf is in the AHL. Frank Seravalli reported that the Flames plan to start him in the AHL this year.
Others to consider: Cole Caufield, Mark Scheifele, Elis Lindholm
(139) Round 12, Pick 7: Patrik Laine (CBJ – LW/RW)
Laine has failed to live up to the high expectations placed on the No.2 overall pick, but the results haven’t been terrible. Injuries are the main issue with the 25-year-old. He’s missed 32.3 percent of the games of the last two years. But honestly, who cares? It’s baked into his 13th-round ADP, and he’s a risk-free pick as a bench winger.
Last year, Laine scored 22 goals with 30 assists in 55 games. In two full seasons with the Blue Jackets, he has 48 goals and 60 assists (108 points) in 111 games. If you extrapolate those numbers over 82 games, that’s a 36-goal, 44-assist pace. When all is said and done, he may be one of the biggest fantasy steals of the 2024 season.
Others to consider: Filip Forsberg, Shea Theodore
(150) Round 13, Pick 6: Zach Werenski (CBJ – D)
Werenski missed 69 games last season after suffering a separated shoulder and torn labrum in mid-November. Before getting hurt, he tallied eight points (3G / 5A) in 13 games. Injuries are likely why he’s falling so late into drafts this season, but the upside is impossible to ignore. He’s one of the best and most consistent goal-scorers on the blueline, averaging 16 goals per 82 games throughout his seven-year career. Werenski’s return to the lineup and some off-season acquisitions should help the Blue Jackets be a better offensive team in 2023-24, making Werenski one of my favourite targets for your No.3 or No.4 fantasy defenseman late in drafts.
Others to consider:
(163) Round 14, Pick 7: Owen Tippett (PHI – RW)
Tippett was the No.10 overall pick in 2017 and finally got his chance with the Flyers last season after being buried on the Panthers’ depth chart early in his career. Tippett finished with 49 points (27G / 22A) in 77 games, but it was his finish to the season that has me excited. Tippett had 15 points (9G / 6A) in his final 15 games, averaging 3.5 shots on goal and 19:49 TOI per game. If he continues to see that kind of usage and maintains that shot volume, Tippett is a player who could have 35 goals with 280-plus shots and 125-plus hits.
Others to consider: Cam Talbot, Lucas Raymond, Seth Jarvis
(174) Round 15, Pick 6: Barrett Hayton (ARI – C)
Hayton is going undrafted right now, and he’s a reason why you can wait to draft centre depth. Last season, he had just 14 points (5G / 9A) in his first 47 games while averaging just 16:03 TOI/gm. After that, he was locked on a line with Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz and took off in the second half of the season. Hayton finished with 29 points (14G / 15A) in his final 35 games–a 33-goal, 35-assist per 82-game pace. He broke into the NHL young, so he’s still just 23 years old and should be able to build on that late-season chemistry and success with Keller and Schmaltz. That line has been together throughout training camp, so look for Hayton to hit the ground running as your last-round pick or post-draft free-agent pickup.
Others to consider: Nick Schmaltz, Josh Norris, Andre Burakovsky
(187) Round 16, Pick 7: Gabe Vilardi (WPG – C)
Vilardi was selected No.11 overall in 2017 and had a breakthrough in 2023, scoring 23 goals with 41 points in 63 games. This offseason, he was traded to the Jets as a part of the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade and looks like a breakout candidate in 2024. Vilardi has been skating on the top line with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor in training camp, so he’s worth taking a flier on with your final pick. Three great goal-scorers on the same line could make some magic. He should also pick up wing eligibility in the first couple of weeks of the season.
Others to consider: Sean Couturier, Filip Chytil
The Team
C – Auston Matthews (TOR – C)
C – Sam Reinhart (FLA – C/RW)
LW – Andrei Svechnikov (CAR – LW/RW)
LW – Kyle Connor (WPG – LW)
RW – Alex DeBrincat (DET – LW/RW)
RW – Tim Stutzle (OTT – C/LW)
D – Evan Bouchard (EDM – D)
D – John Carlson (WSH – D)
D – Kris Letang (PIT – D)
D – Zach Werenski (CBJ – D)
G – Juuse Saros (NSH – G)
G – Jacob Markstrom (CGY – G)
BN – Patrik Laine (CBJ – LW/RW)
BN – Owen Tippett (PHI – RW)
BN – Barrett Hayton (ARI – C)
BN – Gabe Vilardi (WPG – C)