Drafting good players is only half the battle on draft day. The most important thing to do is pick the right players at the right time, avoiding players whose draft cost is higher than it should be.
I’ve outlined 11 players with significant disparities between my ranking and their Yahoo Average Draft Position (ADP). This post isn’t telling you to avoid these players entirely. If they drop down the draft board far enough, there’s a spot for all of them. However, it would be best if you avoided them at their current ADPs.
Roope Hintz (DAL – C) | ADP: 26.9 — My Rank: 55
This has less to do with Hintz and more with the players you’re passing on to draft him in the early third round. Hintz has been great over the last two seasons, averaging 37.0 goals and 36.5 assists. While he’s been mostly healthy during those seasons, that has only sometimes been the case with Hintz. He’s already missing time in training camp, and making him a cornerstone of your fantasy team is risky. He’s going to get his numbers, but he has shot 18.6 percent with a 13.4 on-ice SH% to get to those totals in 2022 and 2023, so it doesn’t seem like there’s much room for growth. At 26.9, you’re passing on other centres like Elias Pettersson, Brayden Point and Tim Stutzle, all of whom have much more upside this season.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM – C/LW) | ADP: 32.3 — My Rank: 62
Nugent-Hopkins has red flags all over. Firstly, he shot 18.4 percent last season; his career average was 11.5. Secondly, he had the highest on-ice SH% (15.9) ever recorded (since 2008) and had the most secondary assists, a stat that’s difficult to replicate on a year-to-year basis. Given how impressive the Oilers’ power-play is, it’s fair to assume that Nugent-Hopkins will have another strong season, but he’ll likely be closer to 25 goals and 55 assists (80 points). He’s better as a sixth-round pick than a third-round pick.
Jeremy Swayman (BOS – G) | ADP: 53.6 — My Rank: 131
Swayman went 24-6-4 with a 2.27 GAA, .920 SV% and four shutouts last season. Those are outstanding numbers, but the Bruins will not be the same team they were a season ago. Patrice Bergeron is a major loss, but David Krejci leaves them with holes in their top two lines. That’s just the start of Swayman’s problems. Linus Ullmark was historically good last season, so it’s unlikely that Swayman will start more than 50 percent of the Bruins games. Without starting 50 games, it will be next to impossible for Swayman to get to 30 wins, making him a bust as a No.1 fantasy netminder.
Charlie McAvoy (BOS – D) | ADP: 54.6 — My Rank: 96
McAvoy is a solid contributor across the board, averaging ten goals, 51 assists, 22 power-play points, 153 shots and 135 hits per 82 games over the last two seasons. The issue is his ADP. McAvoy is going in the middle of the fifth round, ahead of defensemen with way more upside, like Miro Heiskanen, Evan Bouchard and Quinn Hughes. If you want to take another step further, Matt Boldy, Aleksander Barkov, Jack Eichel and Clayton Keller are all high-upside forwards going after McAvoy. He’s a solid No.2 fantasy defenseman, but you can get those a few rounds later.
Mark Stone (VGK – RW) | ADP: 63.6 — My Rank: 148
Injuries have been a real issue for Stone over the last two seasons. He’s missed 84 games (51.2 percent) but has tallied 26 goals and 42 assists (68 points) in the 80 games he’s played. That obviously showcases what he’s capable of if he stays healthy, but that’s a big if. Even if he can stay in the lineup, those totals don’t blow you away and certainly aren’t worthy of a sixth-round fantasy draft pick. It’s not like he provides massive shot, hit or power-play totals that prop him up.
Jamie Benn (DAL – LW) | ADP: 75.9 — My Rank: 175
Despite his TOI dropping two full minutes from two seasons ago, Benn had more goals and just three fewer points than the two previous seasons combined. He did so by shooting a career-high 17.4 percent, 4.5 percent higher than his career average. The veteran also rode a 15.4 on-ice SH%, the second-highest in the NHL and the fourth-highest ever recorded. Benn is as obvious of a regression case as there is, and his other counting stats (SOG and Hits) aren’t that impressive anymore. He has no business being selected in the seventh round.
Marc-Andre Fleury (MIN – G) | ADP: 99.1 — My Rank: 144
Before February 10th, Fleury started 63 percent of the Wild’s games but was outplayed by Filip Gustavsson. After February 10th, they started going with Gustavsson more frequently, giving Fleury just 42 percent of the starts. That’s more like the workload you should expect for him this season. The veteran finished the season with a 2.85 GAA and .908 SV% and appears entrenched in a No.2 role behind Gustavsson this season. Fleury is being drafted as the No.20 netminder, which isn’t egregious. Still, he’s going ahead of goalies who will be workhorse No.1 on their team, like Darcy Kuemper, Jacob Markstrom and Ville Husso and way ahead of other No.2s who are on better teams like Adin Hill, Logan Thompson, Akira Schmid and Joseph Woll. His ADP is a no man’s land, and you’re better off drafting Tristan Jarry, Thatcher Demko or Stuart Skinner if you’re going goalie in the ninth round or waiting until later in the draft.
Tyson Barrie (NSH – D) | ADP: 108.7 — My Rank: 207
Barrie’s numbers have often been elevated by playing on talented rosters. That’s definitely been the case with the Edmonton Oilers in recent years, but those days are gone. After being traded to Nashville last season, he had 12 points (3G / 9A) in 24 games with the Predators. He’s behind Roman Josi in the pecking order for PP time and likely won’t get over the 0.5 points per game we saw after the trade. That makes him more of a waiver wire add than a 9th/10th-round pick. There are plenty of better defensemen going much later than Barrie; focus on them.
Pyotr Kochetkov (CAR – G) | ADP: 123.8 — My Rank: 180
Kochetkov would have been a favourite target of mine this season if the Hurricanes didn’t bring back both Frederik Andersen (two years) and Antti Raanta (one year). As a result, the best case for Kochetkov early in the season is that he remains with the team as their No.3 goalie. However, he’s waiver-exempt and likely headed for the AHL. Will he have value when/if Andersen or Raanta gets hurt? Absolutely. But drafting him when he’ll have little to no early-season value is a waste of a mid-round pick.
Tony DeAngelo (CAR – D) | ADP: 129.2 — My Rank: 238
DeAngelo has had back-to-back productive seasons, averaging 13 goals and 44 assists (57 points) per 82 games. However, he was traded to the Hurricanes in the offseason and landed on the deepest blueline in the league. With Brent Burns, Jaccob Slavin, Dmitry Orlov, Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei all on the roster, it’s hard to envision DeAngelo being anything more than a No.6 defenseman with PP2 usage. The last time he played in Carolina, he was on PP1 and fourth on the Hurricanes’ blueline in TOI/gm (19:49). This group is way deeper and that will limit his upside considerably.