<p>In the upcoming weeks, every major outlet will count down the NHL’s best players. Most will be subjective, driven by a hotly debated vote from a panel of staffers or insiders.</p>



<p>With just 51 days until the puck drops on the 2024-25 season, we’re cutting the line.</p>



<p>When I launched <a href="https://adjustedhockey.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Adjusted Hockey</a> two years ago — initially a Hockey Hall of Fame project — one of the goals was to rank every player by position at the end of every season. The idea was to deliver the hockey equivalent of the <a href="https://www.owgr.com/current-world-ranking" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Official World Golf Rankings</a>. A living timeline of the world’s best players.</p>



<p>Enter the <em>High Noon </em>rankings.</p>



<p>Using adjusted <a href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/about/point_shares.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">point shares</a> as a proxy for value, we could rate individuals in an equitable way, eliminating reputation and minimizing bias. An example: How good was Phil Kessel at his best?… the #13 forward in the NHL. While an impressive feat, many would not consider it a Hall of Fame-worthy peak. High Noon was designed to help understand a player’s true place in the league’s hierarchy.</p><div class="injected-ad injected-video" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="0" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="175"></div>



<p>But the use of High Noon extends beyond the niche lens of the HHOF. It’s a valuable tool to capture both hockey’s past <em>and</em> the current moment — which is what we’re most interested in today.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">🕛 Intro to High Noon</h2>



<p>Before we get to the rankings, here’s a brief introduction. You can read about High Noon’s mechanics in this <a href="https://adjustedhockey.com/2022/10/19/high-noon/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">original post</a>. In short, it uses a weighted three-year average: <strong>2023-24</strong> represents 50% of a player’s score; <strong>2022-23</strong> gets one-third (33%); <strong>2021-22</strong> gets one-sixth (17%). The split helps take a longer-range view of performance — a brilliant few months on a stacked power play doesn’t make a player one of the game’s best. So, eligibility begins after three seasons (i.e., Connor Bedard will debut in 2026).</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Players are divided positionally: forwards, defensemen, goaltenders.</li>



<li>By leveraging point shares, the High Noon system is driven by boxscore stats — <em>not</em> advanced data.</li>



<li>Goals are more valuable than assists, having a more direct impact on scoring overall.</li>



<li>Players are broadly assigned credit for team defense based on ice time and team-relative plus-minus.</li>



<li>Goaltenders with high save percentages and shot counts are rewarded most.</li>



<li>Playoffs aren’t factored in — post-season opportunities and opposition being too arbitrary to include.</li>



<li>Missing time isn’t punished, so long as the games played threshold over the three-year window is met.<br></li>
</ul>



<p></p>



<p>Like any method, the High Noon approach has limits. But it delivers results systematically, offering a middle ground between the superficial trappings of the NHL scoring race and nuanced analytics.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="1" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="154"></div>



<p><strong>Part one of our three-part series: </strong>the 50 best forwards in the NHL<em> </em>today…</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">👑 The Top 50</h2>



<p><strong>How to Read these Rankings:</strong> Artemi Panarin’s score in the High Noon system is 10.8, making him the #8 forward in the NHL right now. In 2022, he was ranked #7; in 2023, he dropped to #14. The Change column is his increase of +6 spots from #14 to #8 in the last year. Panarin’s peak — his <strong>High Noon</strong> — is #5, which is the highest spot he’s ever been ranked (2021).</p>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-16.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="792" height="707" src="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-16.png" alt="" class="wp-image-169876" srcset="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-16.png 792w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-16-300x268.png 300w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-16-768x686.png 768w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-16-150x134.png 150w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-16-600x536.png 600w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-16-696x621.png 696w" sizes="(max-width: 792px) 100vw, 792px"></a></figure></div>


<p></p>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-22.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="809" height="714" src="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-22.png" alt="" class="wp-image-170941" srcset="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-22.png 809w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-22-300x265.png 300w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-22-768x678.png 768w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-22-150x132.png 150w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-22-600x530.png 600w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-22-696x614.png 696w" sizes="(max-width: 809px) 100vw, 809px"></a></figure></div>


<h2 class="wp-block-heading">1️⃣ Who’s #1?</h2>



<p>No surprise here. <strong>Connor McDavid</strong> remains the NHL’s #1 forward. But the gap has shrunk. A year ago, McDavid (15.2) led runner-up Leon Draisaitl (13.0) by 2.2. This year? Nathan MacKinnon’s explosive MVP season launched him to 13.6 — just 0.9 behind McDavid’s 14.5. Despite a 100-assist season, the <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Oiler</a> captain’s score dropped, largely from his goal count slicing in half (64 to 32). For those expecting scoring champion Nikita Kucherov (#4) to have been McDavid’s biggest threat, it’s a reminder that the rankings incorporate a defensive component and are not a one-season exercise.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="2" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="182"></div>



<p>That’s five straight years in a row <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/witnessing-greatness-matthews-mcdavid-makar" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">at the top for McDavid</a> — a historically significant run. Among post-expansion forwards, the overall leaders in #1 finishes: Mario Lemieux (10); Wayne Gretzky (7); Phil Esposito (7); Sidney Crosby (6); Guy Lafleur (5). Only Gretzky and Esposito (seven each) have ever had six <em>consecutive</em> years at #1. McDavid will need to fend off the game’s best another year to join the exclusive club.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">📈 Trending Up</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><em>Biggest Jumps Inside the Top 100</em>:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>Gabriel Vilardi</strong> (+71, from #152 to #81)</li>



<li><strong>William Karlsson</strong> (+57, from #142 to #85)</li>



<li><strong>Sam Reinhart</strong> (+47, from #66 to #19)</li>



<li><strong>Robert Thomas</strong> (+42, from #91 to #49)</li>



<li><strong>Brock Boeser</strong> (+41, from #111 to #70)</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">📉 Trending Down</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><em>Exiting the Top 50:</em>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>Johnny Gaudreau</strong> (from #27 to #86)</li>



<li><strong>Jonathan Huberdeau</strong> (from #36 to #115!)</li>



<li><strong>Elias Lindholm</strong> (from #38 to #102)</li>



<li><strong>Mark Stone</strong> (from #39 to #56)</li>



<li><strong><strong>John Tavares</strong> </strong>(from #40 to #54)</li>



<li><strong>Ryan Nugent-Hopkins</strong> (from #44 to #55)</li>



<li><strong>Nikolaj Ehlers</strong> (from #42 to #62)</li>



<li><strong>Alex Tuch</strong> (from #46 to #52)</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">💥 Feature Player</h2>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-27.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="697" height="478" src="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-27.png" alt="" class="wp-image-170957" srcset="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-27.png 697w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-27-300x206.png 300w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-27-150x103.png 150w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-27-218x150.png 218w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-27-436x300.png 436w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-27-600x411.png 600w, https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/image-27-100x70.png 100w" sizes="(max-width: 697px) 100vw, 697px"></a></figure></div>


<p></p>



<p>That makes a perfect 17-for-17 among the <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/after-two-decades-of-dominance-where-does-sidney-crosby-rank-among-the-nhls-greatest-players" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">league’s top 20 forwards</a> for <strong>Sidney Crosby</strong> in High Noon. Most public rankings will place him higher on reputation or intangibles than his current #14 slot. But a statistical approach regards his last half-decade more as a franchise player than among the top handful of forwards in the NHL. With Alex Ovechkin finally slipping to #34, Crosby is now the outright leader in top-20 seasons among forwards since expansion: Crosby (17); Ovechkin (16); Joe Sakic (15).</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="3" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="155"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">🎯 Quick Hits</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>How about <strong>Kirill Kaprizov</strong> (#7)? Perhaps the most underappreciated offensive weapon in the NHL.</li>



<li>Yes, that’s how incredible <strong>Jason Robertson</strong> (#12)’s year was in 2022-23 (46 goals, 109 points).</li>



<li>If we gave <strong>Connor Bedard</strong> credit for three seasons like <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/connor-bedards-rookie-season-where-it-ranks-and-what-it-means" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">his rookie year</a>, he’d have debuted at #94.</li>



<li>Top team representation: 2024 Cup champion <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/florida-panthers/line-combinations" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Florida</a> is the only team with <em>four</em> top-50 forwards: <strong>Matthew Tkachuk</strong> (#10); <strong>Aleksander Barkov</strong> (#18); <strong>Sam Reinhart</strong> (#19); <strong>Carter Verhaeghe</strong> (#31)</li>



<li>Edmonton, <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Toronto</a>, and <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/tampa-bay-lightning/line-combinations" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Tampa Bay</a> are the only other franchises with three forwards in the top 25.</li>



<li>Notable top-50 omissions: <strong>Tim Stutzle</strong> (#60), <strong>Brock Boeser</strong> (#70), <strong>Mat Barzal</strong> (#72), and <strong>Nick Suzuki</strong> (#88) — all great candidates to slide up in 2025.</li>



<li>Former #1 forwards <strong>Evgeni Malkin</strong> (#59) and <strong>Patrick Kane</strong> (#61) were just shy of the top 50.<br><br></li>
</ul>



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<p></p>



<p>Any big surprises? Players too high? Too low? Excluded entirely? Let us know!</p>



<p>Stay tuned next week for Part Two (<strong>Defensemen</strong>) and Part Three (<strong>Goaltenders</strong>)…</p>



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<p><em>Follow&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/AdjustedHockey" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@AdjustedHockey</a>&nbsp;on X; Data from&nbsp;<a href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Hockey-Reference.com</a></em></p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Recently by Paul Pidutti</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/witnessing-greatness-matthews-mcdavid-makar" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Matthews, McDavid, Makar and the fast track to hockey immortality</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/every-franchises-best-offensive-season" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Who’s the best candidate to break each franchise’s single-season (era-adjusted) points record?</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/long-term-ufa-signings-turn-out-even-worse-than-you-might-think" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Most long-term UFA signings turn out even worse than you think</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/mcdavid-vs-crosby-which-generational-talent-had-the-better-career-by-27" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">McDavid vs. Crosby: Which generational talent had the better career by 27?</a></li>
</ul>



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