Former players, executives, and coaches: you’ve been warned…

If you get a call from a 416 area code on Tuesday, answer the phone. Amidst the chaos of a must-watch Stanley Cup Final, next week’s NHL Entry Draft, and the hype around the league’s free agent frenzy on July 1st, the Hockey Hall of Fame’s Class of 2025 announcement might catch you by surprise.

But these calls will change lives forever. The Selection Committee will bestow an exclusive and permanent honor upon the Hall’s newest members. For some former players, however, the day is an annual letdown — another year waiting behind the velvet rope.

These are the players we’re interested in today. Those long-eligible stars that often get mentioned this time of year, but still have to pay admission to enter the Hall. We’re counting down hockey’s top 10 Hall of Fame holdovers. We’ll look into the crystal ball and project if these past stars will ever be inducted. The spice level of our cases starts with mild heat and works up to ghost pepper-level debates.

Grab a glass of milk and enjoy. 🌶️

⌛ 10. Patrik Elias

Year of Eligibility: 7th
Claim to Fame: All-around threat led two Devils’ Cup-winning teams in scoring

The Case: Those who know, know. Elias is the poster boy for being forgotten as an NHL superstar. Thriving as the top scorer of the league’s most defensively conscious team in its most offensively suppressed era of the last 70 years is a recipe for neglect. But Elias was a weapon. PPS, my Hall of Fame worthiness metric, gives him a score of 247 vs. the modern forward standard of 219. Elias grades similarly to future first-ballot lock Jonathan Toews. Elias was a central figure on four Stanley Cup finalists, and New Jersey qualified for the postseason each of his first 13 seasons.

Will He Ever Be Inducted?: No. Unless the Committee has a renaissance like the Baseball Writers’ Association of America’s electorate when it comes to equitably comparing eras, Elias feels destined to remain a fringe candidate.

⌛ 9. John LeClair

Year of Eligibility: 16th
Claim to Fame: Power forward second to Jagr in goals over six-season span

The Case: I’ve long been a supporter of LeClair’s unheralded candidacy. It centers around six years as an elite sniper. From 1994-95 through 1999-2000, LeClair scored 261 goals in The Dead Puck Era — one goal behind Jaromir Jagr for NHL-best. Scaled to a neutral era, that’s 50 per year. Scaled to the early-1980s? That’s 65 per year and automatic induction. In the same period, he led the league in plus-minus (+159) and was third in points. Throw in a starring role in U.S.A.’s only best-on-best title and Cup Final heroics in Montreal and you’ve got a legitimate Hall of Fame case.

Will He Ever Be Inducted?: No. There hasn’t been enough public momentum for Big John. His modest career totals continue to obscure reality on how dominant he was in his prime.

⌛ 8. Rod Brind’Amour

Year of Eligibility: 13th
Claim to Fame: Two-time Selke winner captained Carolina’s 2006 Cup winner

The Case: Two years ago, I dove deep into Brind’Amour’s case. My take? Love the guy, but his playing career in isolation falls short of the Hall’s standard. The Hurricane faithful lit me up. But everyone else largely agreed. Fair or not, the Hall’s bylaws are clear on the separation between Player and Builder categories. Rod the Bod’s overall contributions as a player (1,184 points) and coach (seven seasons, nine playoff series won, Jack Adams Award), however, are impressive, unique, and still growing.

Will He Ever Be Inducted?: Yes. I’m betting the Committee eventually blurs its own rules and elects Brind’Amour as a Player despite a wobbly case. In my view, there needs to be a method to reward this rare type of dual hockey life that touches both categories.

⌛ 7. Sergei Gonchar

Year of Eligibility: 8th
Claim to Fame: One of the best offensive defensemen of his generation

The Case: Over nearly a decade from 1999-2000 to 2007-08, Gonchar kept exclusive company.

Goals by a defenseman (129): Most in NHL
Assists by a defenseman (356): Second in NHL, behind Nicklas Lidstrom
Points by a defenseman (485): Second in NHL, again trailing only Lidstrom
Top-10 finish for Norris Trophy seven times

By PPS, Gonchar is the biggest snub among all defensemen. By comparison, Zdeno Chara is expected to rightfully cruise into the Hall on his first try on Tuesday and he’s tied in PPS with Gonchar at 282.

Will He Ever Be Inducted?: Yes. Gonchar is part of an underappreciated generation, so his induction may take a while. But he’s going to compare so favorably to many of the current generation’s likely future inductees that the Committee should connect the dots in due time.

⌛ 6. Curtis Joseph

Year of Eligibility: 14th
Claim to Fame: Dynamic goaltender retired fourth all-time in career wins

The Case: When making a Hall of Fame case, a simple and compelling tagline helps. Cujo lacks that knockout punch. Three-time Vezina finalist? Seventh in career wins? Beloved star in three cities? Signature playoff runs without reaching a Cup Final? Nothing quite pops. Joseph was likely the league’s best goalie of the early 1990s, topping the NHL in Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) by an incredible 30 goals from 1991-94. But on middling Blues‘ teams at a time where wins were king and Patrick Roy, Ed Belfour, Martin Brodeur, and Dominik Hasek monopolized headlines and hardware, Cujo was cast as a supporting actor.

Will He Ever Be Inducted?: No. By PPS, Joseph is the 8th-best goaltender since expansion. But with Roberto Luongo (#5), Henrik Lundqvist (#7), Tom Barrasso (#15), and head-scratching selection Mike Vernon (#44) each inducted in the last three cycles, Cujo missed the overdue wave of goalie picks.

⌛ 5. Keith Tkachuk

Year of Eligibility: 13th
Claim to Fame: Second-most goals by an American-born player in NHL history

The Case: By PPS, Tkachuk is the second-biggest forward snub behind LeClair. Tkachuk scored 538 goals despite peaking in a low-scoring era. Had the Rocket Richard Trophy been created two years sooner, Big Walt would have one. The induction of American contemporary Jeremy Roenick last year has to elevate Tkachuk’s hopes. The pair profile similarly — Roenick lasted a little longer but Tkachuk was a much more lethal goal scorer. The case against? A dreadful postseason record… 56 points in 89 games, winning only three rounds in an 18-year career.

Will He Ever Be Inducted?: Yes. Fame factor aside, inducting Roenick and rejecting Tkachuk becomes difficult to defend. With another decade in the limelight at his sons’ NHL games, it feels like Dad will slip into the Hall in a future down year for first-time candidates.

⌛ 4. Jennifer Botterill

Year of Eligibility: 12th
Claim to Fame: Serial winner and dominant scorer at every level

The Case: Botterill is everywhere these days as a leading broadcaster and face of hockey media. But her strong Hall of Fame credentials were built long ago over a 14-year career at the college, professional, and international levels. Botterill still has the most points in NCAA history. Internationally, she presided over Team Canada’s most impressive mastery of their American rivals — Canada won 13 of 15 international events from 1997-2007 in Botterill’s heyday.

Will She Ever Be Inducted?: Yes. The Committee finally inducted the maximum two women in 2024, each from Botterill’s era: Natalie Darwitz and Krissy Wendell. Both were sound choices. But Botterill played longer, at an equally high level, and had considerably more team success. Her phone call feels imminent.

⌛ 3. Theo Fleury

Year of Eligibility: 17th
Claim to Fame: Undersized winger won Cup, Olympic gold and scored 1,000 points

The Case: Fleury’s case hasn’t been about hockey for a long time now. He reached 1,000 games and 1,000 points. He made four best-on-best Team Canada entries, winning gold in Salt Lake City. He won a Stanley Cup with Calgary at 20 as the smallest player in a violent NHL. Overcoming sexual abuse to thrive at the highest level is a haunting feat worthy of immense respect. He legitimately played at a level worthy of Hall consideration. It’s Fleury’s post-hockey life that ends the conversation. Regardless of your political leanings, Fleury is objectively a conspiracy theorist today. He’s used his fame to spread divisive and inexplicable rhetoric.

Will He Ever Be Inducted?: No. The Hockey Hall of Fame is far from a test of morality. Pretending so would be naive. Harold Ballard and Bobby Hull remain Honored Members in good standing. Yet, it feels impossible that the Committee would give Fleury the platform to amplify a voice that has long lost its way.

⌛ 2. Paul Henderson

Year of Eligibility: 42nd
Claim to Fame: Scored the winning goals in each of Games 6, 7, and 8 of Summit Series

The Case: Henderson’s candidacy leans largely on that big week in 1972. He caught fire at the most culturally significant time in Canadian hockey history, etching his name in permanent marker as savior of his country’s international supremacy. Yet, between the NHL and WHA — despite playing in a favorable era for scoring — Henderson totaled only 760 points in 18 pro seasons. The modern equivalent? Picture Brenden Morrow exploding in the 2010 Vancouver Olympics and scoring The Golden Goal in place of Sidney Crosby.

Will He Ever Be Inducted?: No. Henderson’s candidacy is into its sixth decade of igniting whether a moment can create a Hall of Fame career. It seems any potential tipping point for induction has now passed. Henderson had his 80th birthday. He’s battled cancer for more than a decade. His famous goal had its 50th anniversary in 2022. But hey, 52-plus years (and counting) as a national folk hero is a wonderful life on its own.

⌛ 1. Alexander Mogilny

Year of Eligibility: 17th
Claim to Fame: Quadruple Gold Club member risked life to defect to North America

The Case: There’s little left to say about Mogilny’s case. I’ve called him the most glaring Hall of Fame omission. That hasn’t changed. His on-ice case puts him comfortably in the Qualified tier in PPS. The harrowing nature of his defection and the pioneering role he played in Eastern European talent escaping oppression only further seals the deal. The TSN short documentary “Why Isn’t Alex Mogilny in the Hall of Fame?” (for transparency, I was featured in it) is a fantastic sketch of his remarkable hockey life.

Will He Ever Be Inducted?: Yes. Among the many overlooked candidates I’ve used data-driven analysis to advocate for, Mogilny remains most baffling. Even if you see him as a borderline choice (he’s not), the stated criteria of contributions “to the game of hockey in general” launches Mogilny over the edge as a candidate. It’s an oversight I believe will be corrected. Eventually.

Visit adjustedhockey.com; data and player information from Hockey-Reference, Elite Prospects

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