How will the Tampa Bay Lightning respond to Toronto’s trade for O’Reilly?

Frank Seravalli (frank_seravalli)

Feb 20, 2023

How will the Tampa Bay Lightning respond to Toronto’s trade for O’Reilly?

Credit: © Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

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It’s the Final Countdown. We’re within two weeks of the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline. Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered at Daily Faceoff with at least one trade-focused story every day leading up to Deadline Day.

Today, we’re going to key in on the Tampa Bay Lightning, who are shooting for a fourth straight Stanley Cup Final appearance. They’re on a collision course with the Toronto Maple Leafs again in the first round. What do the Lightning have up their sleeve after Toronto’s trade for Ryan O’Reilly?

2023 Trade Deadline Countdown: 11 Days

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
Current Record: 35-17-3, 73 points (3rd in Atlantic)
General Manager: Julien BriseBois (5th season)
Head Coach: Jon Cooper (10th full season)
Captain: Steven Stamkos (9th full season)

Last Year: Lost to Colorado Avalanche (4-2) in Stanley Cup Final.

Current Lineup: Click Here

Goals For: 3.51 per game (5th)
Goals Against: 2.91 per game (13th)
Power Play: 25.4 percent (5th)
Penalty Kill: 81 percent (11th)

Key Additions
F Vladislav Namestnikov – Signed 1-year, $2.5 million contract on July 13
LD Ian Cole – Signed 1-year, $3 million contract on July 13
LD Haydn Fleury – Signed 2-year, $1.525 million contract on July 13
RD Nick Perbix – Signed 1-year, entry-level contract on March 22 after four years at St. Cloud State (2017 6th Round Pick by Lightning)
RD Philippe Myers – Acquired from Nashville on July 3, since re-signed to 1-year, $1.4 million extension

Key Subtractions
LD Ryan McDonagh – Traded to Nashville on July 3
LW Ondrej Palat – Signed 5-year, $30 million contract with New Jersey on July 14
RD Jan Rutta – Signed 3-year, $8.25 million contract with Pittsburgh on July 13

Trainer’s Table
C Anthony Cirelli – Missed 23 games after offseason shoulder surgery
RD Zach Bogosian – Missed 24 games after offseason shoulder surgery

Both of Tampa’s serious injuries this season were taken care of during the offseason. Otherwise, they’ve iced a complete lineup for the bulk of the season. The Bolts initially stalled without Cirelli anchoring the second line, but they are back to heating up at the right time.

Rewind: 2022 Deadline Playbook

It’s always helpful to take a look back at last year’s trade deadline to see if any information can be gleaned about how Tampa Bay might manage this year.

March 20, 2022
To Tampa Bay: Nick Paul
To Ottawa: Mathieu Joseph, 2024 4th Round Pick, 44.5% retained on Paul
(Paul was re-signed on July 1 to 7-year, $22.05 million deal)

March 18, 2022
To Tampa Bay: Brandon Hagel, 2022 4th Round Pick (Kenny Connors), 2024 4th Round PIck
To Chicago: Taylor Raddysh, Boris Katchouk, 2023 1st Round Pick, 2024 1st Round Pick

March 21, 2022
To Tampa Bay: Riley Nash
To Arizona: Future Considerations

Make no mistake: When BriseBois identifies a need for his team, he curates a list of strong fits, selects a target and pays the price. There is no monkey business. He gets it done. For the third year in a row, the Lightning added savvy, critical depth pieces to help propel them to the Cup Final. This year, their asset pool is incredibly thin, but BriseBois is one of the most creative and proactive managers in the league and will more than likely make something happen for his team again.

How did we get here?

Yet again, Tampa is one of the most consistent teams in the league this year, with no clear and obvious weakness or fatal flaw to address. Do they miss the depth that Palat and McDonagh provided? Of course, but their chances to win weren’t dramatically altered without those players – and now they can potentially add to give their top players a bit of a breather down the stretch.

The Lightning rank inside the top third in the league in most critical statistical categories. Their offense is fifth-best. They also get contributions from across their lineup. Hagel and Paul have been as advertised, with Hagel already on the cusp of hitting 20 goals again and Paul chipping in with 16 of his own. Back from injury, Cirelli continues to anchor the second line and Alex Killorn will break 20 goals for the third time in his career.

Defensively, Tampa makes it hard on opponents to enter the zone with any regularity and limits quality chances against when they do get there. They are Top 10 in almost every defensive metric: expected goals against, scoring chances against, and high-danger scoring chances against. The one area that might give BriseBois and Jon Cooper some pause is their penalty kill, which is still in the top half of the league.

Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy remains the game’s great equalizer. If there are defensive breakdowns or penalty killing miscues, Vasilevskiy can mop it up with ease. He makes up for a lot of mistakes – but as noted, the Bolts don’t make many.

Deadline Posture: Buyers

While there may be ups and downs of the regular season, this Tampa team is another iteration of the championship caliber squad they’ve rolled out for the past four seasons. They sit third in their division, but they feel like a shark swimming in the Atlantic, waiting for the appropriate time to bite off another deep cut in the playoffs. And as Steven Stamkos said so eloquently: “We don’t care about the picks,” which means BriseBois is ready to maximize this core’s championship window by any means necessary.

Deadline Objectives

Top Objective: Depth Defender

If Tampa’s penalty kill is really a concern, or if Cooper would like to reduce Victor Hedman’s workload leading up to the playoffs, perhaps the best course of action is to acquire a defenseman who can add to their depth, aid the penalty kill and provide a physical presence. We’ve seen that Tampa is active in that market with both Ian Cole and Philippe Myers being added to the mix, though the Myers bet (and extension) doesn’t look like it will pay off.

Secondary Objective: Depth Forward

One element certainly missing in Tampa’s bottom six forward group is a burst of speed. None of Pat Maroon, Corey Perry, or Pierre-Edouard Bellemare would be considered a burner. The Bolts could use some turbo there, preferably one with term if they’re going to be giving up some of their precious few assets.

Potential Targets

Noah Gregor, San Jose Sharks: Gregor will soon be appearing on our next Trade Targets board. If Tampa feels the asking price is too high, Gregor has many of the same skills – with probably even better straight line speed. He was a point-per-game teammate playing on a line with Brayden Point in Moose Jaw.
Tanner Jeannot, Nashville Predators: We don’t have any distinct knowledge yet that Jeannot is available, but the Preds should be in sell mode. Jeannot will have a more expensive arbitration case after his 24-goal season last year. Perhaps Nashville is interested in getting ahead of that. Jeannot has size, tenacity, penalty kill ability, and a goal scoring touch.
Will Borgen, Seattle Kraken: Borgen is an interesting fit in Tampa. The question is: Would Seattle, in its own playoff chase, be willing to part with him? He is a pending RFA, so he’d remain under team control, and he makes just $900,000. A number of teams have been heavily scouting Borgen recently because they believe he has lots to add.

(With Borgen, Jeannot, and Gregor, the Bolts could trade for the pending RFAs, re-sign them, or flip them in the summer and likely get almost the same as they paid in the return. Or at least close to it.)

Garnet Hathaway, Washington Capitals: It remains to be seen if the Caps go the seller route, but Hathaway is nonetheless an interesting piece. He’s a jack-of-all-trades player, someone who brings his lunch pail every day – and a player who could put up a pile of points if playing with more talented players.

Jake McCabe, Chicago Blackhawks: McCabe is another Blackhawk who fits the bill, particularly if the Hawks are willing to retain half on his contract, which would knock him down to just $2 million for the next two seasons. Read more about McCabe and his game here.
Sam Lafferty, Chicago Blackhawks: Speed? Check. Penalty kill contributor? Check. Term on reasonable contract? That’s the Tampa trifecta, baby. Lafferty is second in the league to only Reilly Smith with three shorthanded goals. He has one year left at an inexpensive $1.15 million. And Tampa has the assets available to acquire him. One year after looking to Chicago for Hagel with a similar bet, Lafferty could be the guy this year.

Trade Chips

The Lightning would like to be shopping at Gucci, but they’ve got a wallet befitting of Walmart. Tampa’s prospect pool is understandably thin. The Lightning have already traded their first-round picks in 2023 and 2024. They also do not have a second-round pick this season. Also of note: Brisebois has not moved many significant roster players (Joseph, Raddysh, Katchouk) to improve the Bolts at the deadline and we anticipate that will continue. Here’s what is likely in play:

2025 1st Round Pick: Is it possible that a team is willing to bet the long game on Tampa and think that they may be heading toward a downturn by 2024-25? They’d have to hope a natural aging decline will put them in a pole position at the Draft.
G Hugo Alnefelt: He’s been rock solid in AHL Syracuse this season as a 20-year-old. The 6-foot-3 Swede has a .923 save percentage in 20 AHL games – and there is a clear roadblock ahead of him in Vasilevskiy.
LW Isaac Howard: BriseBois has made just two first-round picks in four summers as GM. He traded Nolan Foote in 2020 for Blake Coleman. Howard is the other, an undersized winger who tore up the USNTDP and is having a mediocre year at Minnesota-Duluth.
C Jack Finley: Finley is a 6-foot-6 center who was a 2020 2nd Round Pick. That kind of size is always going to grab someone’s attention.

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