New York Rangers: 1st in Metropolitan Division, 114 points, def. WSH in Round 1 (4-0)

Carolina Hurricanes: 2nd in Metropolitan Division, 111 points, def. NYI in Round 1 (4-1)

Schedule (ET)

Date	Game	Time
Sunday, May 5	1. Carolina at New York	4 p.m. ET
Tuesday, May 7	2. Carolina at New York	7 p.m. ET
Thursday, May 9	3. New York at Carolina	7 p.m. ET
Saturday, May 11	4. New York at Carolina	7 p.m. ET
Monday, May 13	5. Carolina at New York*	TBD
Thursday, May 16	6. New York at Carolina*	TBD
Saturday, May 18	7. Carolina at New York*	TBD

The Skinny

Uncertainty is the defining characteristic of playoff hockey, but a second-round meeting between the New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes was as close as it gets to a sure thing; the teams pulled away from the field in a weak Metropolitan Division months ago and have been sizing one another up ever since.

The Rangers led the NHL in wins and points by New Year’s Day and never looked back, brushing off a season-long four-game losing streak in early January to win 29 of their remaining 41 contests and earn their first Presidents’ Trophy since 2015.

New York’s regular-season dominance brought them a soft matchup with the Washington Capitals, the worst team in the field and, by the numbers (-37 goal differential), the worst playoff team since the NHL implemented a salary cap.

As has so often been the case in 2023-24, Vincent Trocheck (3 G, 6 P in 4 GP) and Igor Shesterkin (1.75 GAA, .931 SV%) led the way as the Rangers dominated; Washington led for just more than three minutes of the entire series as New York secured a first-round sweep for the first time in 17 years. Now, the Broadway Blueshirts set their sights on their first real test of the postseason, a Carolina team they have battled for divisional supremacy for the better part of three years.

Despite leading the NHL in wins and point percentage after the New Year, the Hurricanes never did catch the Rangers after a sluggish start. That did not affect their first-round draw as it might have in a stronger division; the New York Islanders, once a nightmare playoff matchup, are more litmus test than genuine contenders at this stage in their title window, if you could still call it that. They finished third in the ‘Met,’ 17 points behind Carolina.

Though the Islanders were bothersome and physical until the end, even managing to stave off a sweep with a double overtime triumph in Game 4, they could do little to stall the Hurricanes’ inevitable ascent. Seth Jarvis (1G, 2P) and Brady Skjei (2 A, 5 SOG) were especially impressive as the Canes closed the show in front of the home crowd 6-3. Now, Carolina will focus on avenging their 2022 second-round loss to the Rangers as it continues its quest for a second Stanley Cup.

Head to Head

NY Rangers: 2-1
Carolina: 1-2

There aren’t any throwaway games when teams as good as the Rangers and Hurricanes meet, so the former will take heart from their 2-1 advantage, especially given that their only loss, a 6-1 home humiliation, came right around their early January nadir. The teams were virtually even in shots (65-65) and chances (61-59 in favor of Carolina) despite the lopsided result.

During the Rangers’ victories, Shesterkin was unbeatable; he surrendered just a goal during the teams’ early season meeting in November before shutting the Hurricanes out in March. During the loss, though, he wore all six Carolina goals despite facing only 27 shots.

Veteran winger Chris Kreider ( 2G, 3 A) was the only player to record a point during each meeting.

Top Five Scorers

New York

Mika Zibanejad, 7 points
Vincent Trocheck, 6 points
Jack Roslovic, 4 points
Alexis Lafreniere, 4 points
Artemi Panarin, 3 points

Carolina

Seth Jarvis, 7 points
Martin Necas, 5 points
Andrei Svechnikov, 5 points
Brady Skjei, 5 points
Evgeni Kuznetsov/Teuvo Teravainen, 4 points

X-Factor

Is it possible for a superstar winger in New York, of all places, to be underrated? Though Artemi Panarin is sure to appear on Hart Trophy ballots for the third time in his career this summer, the answer is yes.

‘The Bread Man’ is the NHL’s fifth most potent per-game scorer (1.19 P/GP) since his debut and ranks third among players who have played at least 592 games, but fans and experts don’t often mention him in the same breath as Pastrnak or Kucherov. Perhaps Panarin’s spotty playoff record is the issue.

Panarin leads all Rangers in scoring (46 1P) since he arrived in the Big Apple in 2019-20, and it’s not close; Zibanejad is more than 90 points behind him in second. Why hasn’t Panarin paced the team in playoff points since the 2020 qualifying round (2 P in 3 GP)? How does Zibanejad (37 P to Panarin’s 23) lead him so comfortably despite the opposite being true throughout the regular season? Why isn’t the 32-year-old even second (Adam Fox, 33P) or third (Chris Kreider, 30 P) in postseason scoring? After 30+ games, that’s not an anomalous dropoff. It’s a pattern of choking.

Zibanejad (team-high 6 A, 7 P) has unsurprisingly stepped up during the Rangers’ nascent voyage into the postseason, but 43.66% of his offense came on the power play this season, and the Canes boast the league’s best penalty kill. If Carolina shuts down the big Swede, Panarin (one even-strength point in Round 1) has to step up. It’s time for New York’s best forward to prop up his team when it matters most, not the other way around.

Offense

The Rangers know what to expect from Zibanejad in the postseason and will not be surprised that he is leading the way in the clutch. What will surprise them is the sudden effectiveness of the third member of the Zibanejad line, which invariably features Kreider (franchise-leading 42 playoff goals) on its left wing: right winger Jack Roslovic.

Roslovic managed four points during the sweep. That is already impressive compared to his modest regular season totals (8 P in 19 GP for NYR), but two power-play tallies are especially intriguing. The Rangers can add a dangerous new wrinkle to an offense that too often lives and dies with its top power play if he and Alexis Lafreniere (3 PP assists in Round 1) continue to develop chemistry on the second unit.

Lafreniere’s line with Panarin and Trocheck was New York’s most dangerous at 5-on-5 during the regular season by a wide margin but combined for just four points without a man advantage during the Capitals series. Some will attribute that to Panarin’s springtime struggles, but the Trocheck line still comfortably led the Rangers in scoring chances and combined for a respectable 11% shooting clip at even strength. Goals should follow if they can get to the net with more regularity,

Elsewhere on offense, checking forward Barclay Goodrow shook off a pedestrian regular season (career-low 12 P in 80 GP) to chip in a shorthanded goal and two assists. Adam Fox and Erik Gustafsson managed a pair of helpers apiece from the blueline.

For Carolina, this season was supposed to put their finishing concerns to rest once and for all. With Jake Guentzel (25 P in 17 GP for Carolina) on board and Jarvis (33 G, 67 P in 81 GP) emerging as a star in his own right, they added offensive firepower around Sebastian Aho (career-high 89 P) that had been missing in years past. The returns from the Islanders series were a mixed bag.

The Hurricanes averaged a healthy 3.8 goals per game, but despite beating their opponents and their woeful PK into the ground, they weren’t clinical; Carolina cashed in on just 6.29% of its 5-on-5 attempts. For the Aho line, where Andrei Svechnikov has replaced Jarvis for the postseason, that number was an abysmal 3.7% (1/27). The underlying numbers are promising (they out-chanced NYI 33-13), and the Hurricanes’ top unit was the only line coach Rod Brind’Amour never altered. Another game or two of bad luck and continued anonymity from Guentzel, who has only seven shots on goal, could change that.

Jarvis has continued to excel away from his usual center and was the most dynamic Canes forward throughout the short series. His connection with Jordan Staal has already cycled through a few left-wingers, and unless ‘Svech’ and the first line continue their toothless ways, Brind’Amour will be content to allow the talented young player to benefit from his captain’s hard work; they outscored the opposition 3-1 despite Staal’s limited (1 P) offensive output.

Further down the lineup, Carolina’s mantra of scoring depth has carried over from previous seasons. Stefan Noesen (3 G) snuck in some greasy goals in team-low ice time, Evgeny Kuznetsov (4P) managed a pair of multi-point bursts, and the Islanders couldn’t take the puck off Skjei at the blueline. The biggest surprise was Jack Drury, the defensively sound forward who notched three points and a club-high +5 rating.

Defense

Is it better to be dominant on D or have dominant goaltending? Is there a difference? There wasn’t for the Rangers against the Capitals. They allowed fewer than two goals per game despite being outchanced (59-79) by a wide margin and controlling just 45% of expected goals. Yes, the Rangers swept, but are those rough possession metrics good enough when you can’t derail the other team’s offense by man-marking a 38-year-old with Jimmy Vesey? We will soon find out, but it’s a wonder no one ever tried the “go stand near Ovechkin at the left circle” strategy for the first 20 years of his pro career.

In any case, though Fox and Ryan Lindgren stuck together, there were some changes to the Rangers’ blueline. Coach Peter Laviolette finally committed to pairing young defensemen Braden Schneider and K’Andre Miller on a full-time basis, and the two led the team in even-strength minutes as captain Jacob Trouba and Gustafsson formed a veteran duo.

Schneider and Miller were the most outshot group on the team but had a greater share of expected goals than Fox and Lindgren. Trouba (16 hits, 15 blocks) and Gustafsson played well in sheltered minutes, but it’s a bad sign that their 49.44% share of expected goals leads the club; none of the three pairs broke even in any relevant metric. They need work at 5-on-5, but seven goals against and an 88% penalty kill are, again, no reason for gloom and doom.

The Hurricanes have no such issues making the numbers look good, ironic given that they didn’t get actual results on par with New York’s. Though veterans Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns were uncharacteristically vulnerable as Brind’Amour’s top pair (41.93% of expected goals, 40% of high-danger chances), Carolina got impressive results from Skjei.

After his usual partner Brett Pesce went down hurt, Skjei was just as good next to Tony DeAngelo, the defensively erratic former Ranger. The two dictated more than 57% of expected goals against the Islanders, and if DeAngelo is typically a liability in his own end, that was not apparent in his first-round cameo. The Canes would prefer the shutdown abilities of Pesce, but they have found a surprisingly reliable substitute until he’s back.

Dmitry Orlov and Jalen Chatfield are officially the third pair, but with Burns and Slavin off-color and Pesce out, they stepped up to lead Carolina in 5-on-5 minutes and chance differential (37-21). Between Chatfield’s footspeed and Orlov’s veteran sensibility, it would not be surprising to see the Hurricanes sic the two on Trocheck’s line throughout the Conference Semifinal. It doesn’t hurt that Staal and Jordan Martinook, two of the NHL’s true shutdown forwards, will be on hand to help.

Goaltending

It was fair near the midway point to wonder which Shesterkin the Rangers would get on a nightly basis, but the answer to that question has been clear for months: the good one. And when Shesterkin is good, there are few better.

The Caps were not the most dangerous test ‘Shesty’ will face this postseason (they managed just 25.25 shots per game), but a 4-0 record and 1.75 GAA make him arguably the hottest goaltender on the planet. With so many of his elite peers (Vasilevskiy, Hellebuyck) already out of the running, the 2022 Vezina winner might be the best netminder left in the field. That’s a distinct advantage for New York over any opponent. They’ll find out to what extent against Carolina.

In the opposite crease, the Hurricanes do not have a potential series stealer like Shesterkin, but they’re confident in their man nonetheless. Freddy Andersen was lights out in limited regular-season appearances (1.84 GAA, .932 SV%) and adjusted well (2.25 GAA, .912 SV%) to his first full-time workload in nearly a year during the opening round. Brind’Amour spelled Andersen with Pyotr Kochetkov regularly to keep him fresh for this moment. The veteran was outdueled by a big-name Russian (Sergei Bobrovsky) in last year’s postseason. Finally healthy, Andersen is keen to flip the script in 2024.

Injuries

The Rangers go through their tilt with the Capitals in one piece, but no news is not necessarily good news on Broadway. The Rangers would love some news if it indicates that third-line center Filip Chytil will return to play the Hurricanes. Chytil, who has been out since November with concussion problems, has been skating with the team for more than a week. If he could push Alex Wennberg to the fourth line and bruiser Matt Rempe out of the lineup, it would give New York’s depth a long-awaited facelift.

The Hurricanes suffered a couple of injury setbacks against the Islanders. Veteran checking forward Jesper Fast (neck) was injured in the last game of the season, but Brind’Amour did not reveal his year was over until the midway point of the first round. Pesce, meanwhile, was ruled out for the remainder of the series after sustaining an apparent ankle injury in Game 2. GM Don Waddell has said he’ll play in the series, but not when.

Intangibles

Both teams desperately want to win this series, and beating a bonafide contender could give the winner enough juice to power through the Eastern Conference Final.

For the Rangers, 120-point and 39-goal seasons for Panarin and Kreider, respectively, could be the crest of a crashing wave; they are both 32. Add in the pressure of the New York media, only compounded by the Presidents’ Trophy win, and there’s a “win-now” vibe in MSG. The Rangers have the narrative, but do they have the goods?

The Hurricanes, meanwhile, have flown under the radar for years thanks to their lowkey Raleigh digs and a seemingly never-ending bevy of value contracts. A half-dozen of them, including those of Teuvo Teravainen, Pesce, Skjei, Chatfield, and even Brind’Amour, end in June. Carolina will never have this much talent under one roof again, not after Jarvis and Chatfield re-up. Waddell and the Canes are all in.

Series Prediction

The Rangers’ passionate fanbase blows a collective gasket at the first suggestion that they won’t win the Stanley Cup, but the math of this series works against them. New York’s clear advantage in goaltending is offset by Carolina’s superior depth, especially at the blueline. The Rangers took the season series, but their inability to possess the puck will play into the Hurricanes’ hands in the playoffs. Losing home ice will be too great a disadvantage for the Presidents’ Trophy winners to overcome.

Hurricanes in six games.

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