Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps Friday’s NHL playoff matchup between the Washington Capitals and Montreal Canadiens.

Canadiens vs. Capitals Game 3 Odds

• Capitals Moneyline: -120
• Canadiens Moneyline: +100
• Puck Line: Capitals -1.5 (+200), Canadiens +1.5 (-250)
• Game Total: 5.5 (Over -125, Under +105)

Game odds via Sports Interaction.

Washington Capitals

From a general perspective, the first two games of this series have been as advertised. Head coach Martin St. Louis’s scrappy young side has not gone down quietly in either matchup, and has received strong play in goal from Samuel Montembeault.

The high-powered Capitals have been able to generate a solid output of offensive chances versus a Canadiens team that is, by most indicators, the worst defensive team still playing. The Capitals have generated 31 high-danger scoring chances in the first two games of the series and allowed only 17 against.

While Montembeault has been excellent as advertised to give his team a chance, Logan Thompson has also had a great start to his playoff career with the Capitals, as the first two games easily could have been split if not for a number of his timely saves.

Thompson had a poor finish to what was an excellent regular season overall before missing some time with injury. As he has stated himself, he tried to play through his ailment for too long, which seems like a valid excuse given his +3.5 GSAx rating and .951 save percentage in the first two games of this series.

The Capitals will hope to get Aliaksei Protas back in the lineup for this matchup, who is considered a game-time decision. While Protas is not yet a household name, he put up 66 points in 76 games this season and ranked fifth league-wide in even-strength points per 60, and he is a physical force who can dominate defensively.

Due to Protas’s absence from the top six, Anthony Beauvillier has had the opportunity to play on the Capitals’ top line alongside Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome, and has made the most of his opportunity with three points in the first two games of the series.

If Protas is to return, it will be interesting to see how head coach Spencer Carbery adjusts his offensive lines. Highly touted forward Ryan Leonard has looked great on the third line, but Andrew Mangiapane has been far less convincing on the other wing and would be the most likely candidate to come out of the lineup if Protas does return.

Montreal Canadiens

While the Canadiens have spent a lot of time playing in the defensive zone, that was to be expected given the gap in depth between these two sides. They have done a fairly good job of bending but not breaking defensively overall and gave themselves an honest chance of winning both of the first two matchups.

Offensively, the Canadiens have generated more than enough opportunities to have scored more than three combined goals in the first two matchups but have struggled to solve Thompson. The Canadiens have generated 3.06 xGF/60 in the first two games of the series, as well as 29.74 shots per 60, which is the fourth-highest mark of all 16 teams so far this postseason.

The Canadiens averaged 2.96 goals per game in the regular season, which ranked 17th in the league. Outside of their tremendous top line of Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, and Juraj Slafkovsky, they do not hold many high-end finishing threats, a flaw that has been evident in this series thus far, as many of their bottom-nine forwards have had some high-quality scoring chances.

Even with both games being played in Washington, where Carbery had the opportunity to make the last change and therefore a better chance of getting desirable matchups, Montreal’s top line was able to control the vast majority of the play.

Caufield, Suzuki, and Slafkovsky have generated 5.59 xGF/60 in the first two games of the series, and hold a 64.3% expected goal share.

Patrik Laine was not present at today’s morning skate after being benched for the third period of Game 2, and it’s possible he could come out of the lineup. Laine has had a very poor series thus far, as his defensive shortcomings have greatly outweighed his offensive play.

It could be logical for St. Louis to move Ivan Demidov further up the lineup, as he looks to try and jumpstart his stagnant offense. It’s a tall order to ask Demidov to perform in the postseason having next to no NHL experience, but seeing how he fares further up the lineup card could be a risk worth taking considering his upside.

Best bet for Capitals vs. Canadiens Game 3

• Cole Caufield Anytime Goalscorer +175 at Sports Interaction

Since the 2015-16 NHL postseason teams that are attempting to avoid going down 3-0 in the series are 26-19, and betting on each of those teams would yield a +14.8% ROI, so the Canadiens are in a good situational spot in this game.

In terms of sides, my lean would be with the scrappy Canadiens in this matchup, but from strictly a numbers perspective, +100 is not that appealing to bet into my speculation that Montreal finds a way to make it a series tonight.

My favorite play is backing Caufield to score a goal. He’s one of the most talented goalscorers in the league and has been getting quality opportunities playing on a line that has been dominant in this series. They should benefit from more favorable matchups playing on home ice in this matchup, and at +175, I believe we are getting a good price to back Caufield tallying his second of the series .