Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Thursday’s matchup between the Washington Capitals and Ottawa Senators.
Capitals vs. Senators Odds
- Washington Capitals Moneyline: -110
- Ottawa Senators Moneyline: -110
- Puck Line: Capitals +1.5 (-295), Senators -1.5 (+210)
- Game Total: 5.5 (Over +110, Under -130)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Capitals (34-16 SU, 32-18 ATS, 19-28-3 O/U)
Washington heads into Thursday’s meeting against Senators looking for its eighth win in its last nine games as the Capitals finish up a five-game road trip. However, while the Capitals have been winning games at an insane rate, they haven’t looked much like a true contender over the last month.
According to Evolving Hockey, the Capitals rank 19th in even strength expected goals percentage and 25th in shot attempt percentage since Dec. 30, but their poor play has been masked by incredible goaltending. The Capitals have been totally average offensively, but no team has allowed fewer goals per 60 minutes over the last month.
Washington can thank Logan Thompson, who ranks first in goals saved above expected and save percentage since Dec. 30, but Charlie Lindgren has also been good. Lindgren ranks 10th in goals saved above expected over the last month, and fifth in save percentage, but he hasn’t had much playing time, with just five starts in January.
Head coach Spencer Carbery had been alternating between Thompson and Lindgren until earlier this month when he started to ride Thompson due to Lindgren’s injury. That said, while the 27-year-old has clearly been the better of the two, and deserves to start most of the games, I’m expecting Lindgren to be between the pipes on Thursday now that he’s back to full health.
Handicapping the Senators (26-24 SU, 21-29 ATS, 14-30-6 O/U)
Ottawa kicked off its four-game homestand with wins over the Toronto Maple Leafs and Utah Hockey Club. Now the Senators return from a three-day break, looking for their third win in a row. The Senators are 14-7-2 at home this season, and they have gone 9-3 straight-up at home since losing five home games in the middle of November.
Anton Forsberg will be in the crease on Thursday, which will mark his fourth start in the last six games. Forsberg had an incredibly tough start to the season, going 4-8-1 with a goals-against average of 3.10 and a save percentage of .883, but since Jan. 10, he’s 2-1-0 while posting a 1.70 GAA and a .935 SV%.
However, the Senators haven’t looked good at even strength over the last month, ranking 21st in expected goals percentage, 23rd in shot attempt percentage, and 32nd in goal share. No team has scored fewer goals per 60 minutes at even strength than Ottawa has over the last month, but they’ve been able to play .500 hockey thanks to solid defense and goaltending. The Senators rank 10th in expected goals against and 12th in goals against per 60 minutes since Dec. 30.
Their struggles on the power play hasn’t helped, either, as Ottawa has converted on just 12.8 percent of their power play opportunities over the last month, but once again, they have been good on the defensive side of things. Ottawa ranks ninth on the penalty kill, with a 82.5 success rate, over the last month.
Best bet for Capitals vs. Senators
- 3-Way result: Regular Time Tie (+300) at Sports Interaction
Five out of the past 10 meetings between the Capitals and Senators have gone to extra time, including the last game on Jan. 16, which Washington won 1-0 on an Alex Ovechkin goal in overtime. Both teams have trended heavily toward the under this season, especially as of late, and therefore, this should be another tightly contested matchup.