Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Tuesday’s matchup between the Florida Panthers and Washington Capitals.
Panthers vs. Capitals Odds
- Florida Panthers Moneyline: -120
- Washington Capitals Moneyline: +100
- Puck Line: Panthers -1.5 (+200), Capitals +1.5 (-250)
- Game Total: 5.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Panthers (32-22 SU, 26-28 ATS, 27-25-2 O/U)
The defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers will face the Capitals following their visit to the White House on Monday. Florida has dominated Washington in recent seasons, winning nine of its last 10 meetings, though the Capitals ended that skid with a 4-1 victory on Nov. 25.
The Panthers have gone 7-3 straight-up over their last 10 games and 4-1 in their last five, but they haven’t faced the toughest schedule. Florida has been strong on the road this season (16-10-1), but from a betting perspective, they’ve merely broken even as road favorites, winning 11 of 18 games.
Florida should control play in this game, ranking second in shot attempts and fourth in expected goals at even strength over the last month, according to Evolving Hockey. However, the Panthers and Capitals have similar even-strength scoring rates. That said, Florida has been average or worse on special teams recently, and goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky hasn’t been a world-beater like Logan Thompson has.
Handicapping the Capitals (34-18 SU, 33-19 ATS, 21-28-3 O/U)
Washington is looking to bounce back after back-to-back overtime losses to the Ottawa Senators and Winnipeg Jets, but like the Panthers, the Capitals have won seven of their last 10 games.
The Capitals haven’t been playing their best hockey, but they haven’t looked terrible either. While Washington ranks among the bottom 10 teams in shot attempt percentage over the last month—suggesting Florida will likely control play—it has posted the 13th-best expected goal share at even strength during that span.
Additionally, Washington has been strong on special teams, ranking fifth on the penalty kill (85.4 percent) and 10th on the power play (25.6 percent) since Jan. 4, which could give them an edge. Florida, meanwhile, has been the second-most penalized team on a per-game basis this season.
Washington also has an advantage in goal now that Logan Thompson has been confirmed as Tuesday’s starter. Only Connor Hellebuyck has outperformed Thompson in goals saved above expected this season, according to Evolving Hockey, but Thompson leads the category since Nov. 30.
Best bet for Panthers vs. Capitals
- 3-Way Regular Time Result: Tie (+310) at Sports Interaction
Washington has gone to overtime or a shootout in seven of its last 15 games, and since I’m expecting this to be a tightly contested game thanks to it being a strong defensive matchup with two solid goaltenders between the pipes, I think the chances of this game going to overtime are better than the odds suggest. Not to mention, four of the past 10 meetings between these two clubs have gone to extra time.