Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Thursday’s Atlantic Division matchup between the Ottawa Senators and Tampa Bay Lightning.
Senators vs. Lightning Odds
- Ottawa Senators Moneyline: +125
- Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline: -150
- Puck Line: Senators +1.5 (-200), Lightning -1.5 (+165)
- Game Total: 5.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Senators (29-25 SU, 24-30 ATS, 18-30-6 O/U)
Ottawa’s extended trip in Tampa Bay continues as the Senators face the Lightning for the third time this season following Tuesday’s 4-3 loss at Amalie Arena.
The Senators opened the scoring and led 1-0 after 20 minutes, but the teams were tied 2-2 heading into the third. Unfortunately for Ottawa, the Lightning scored just 1:56 into the final frame and added an empty-net goal to make it 4-2. The Senators responded 15 seconds later, but Tampa Bay withstood the push and held on for the win.
Tuesday’s game marked the return of goaltender Linus Ullmark after being out since Dec. 22. While he made 34 saves, it wasn’t enough to keep Ottawa’s five-game win streak alive. That said, the Senators were playing the second half of a back-to-back, making it a tough spot where a loss was more likely than a win. However, the Senators are going back to Anton Forsberg on Thursday.
Despite the loss, Ottawa holds a two-point lead over the Lightning for third place in the Atlantic Division, though Tampa Bay has two games in hand. That makes Thursday’s game a critical one for both teams in the playoff race. Unfortunately for the Senators, who are already without forwards Josh Norris, Nick Cousins, and Noah Gregor, they also lost Shane Pinto to injury in the first period.
Handicapping the Lightning (28-24 SU, 25-27 ATS, 22-25-5 O/U)
Tuesday’s win over the Senators propelled the Lightning back into a Wild Card spot, and now they will look to make it two in a row and climb back into third place in the Atlantic Division. The Lightning are 1-1 versus the Senators so far this season, as they dropped a 5-4 decision in Ottawa on Oct. 19.
Tampa Bay controlled Tuesday’s game, owning 76.4 percent of the expected goals and 63.6 percent of the shot attempts. That shouldn’t come as a surprise, though. The Senators were tired following Monday’s game in Nashville, and the Lightning have had much better underlying numbers over the last month and change. According to Evolving Hockey, Tampa Bay ranks eighth in expected goal share and 10th in shot attempt percentage at even strength since Jan. 1.
The two clubs have posted nearly an identical goal share since the beginning of January, but the Senators rank 19th in expected goals percentage and 21st in shot attempt percentage since New Year’s Day. Ottawa and Tampa Bay have both been performing well on special teams, although the Lightning’s power play has been better than that of the Senators.
Andrei Vasilevskiy will be in goal for the Lightning. Vasilevskiy ranks fourth in save percentage (.918) and 11th in goals saved above expected among goaltenders that have faced at least 1,000 unblocked shot attempts, according to Evolving Hockey.
On the injury front, forward Nick Paul will dress for Thursday’s game, but Anthony Cirelli will not, as he is listed as day-to-day.
Best bet for Senators vs. Lightning
- Anton Forsberg Over 25.5 Saves (-115) at Sports Interaction
Anton Forsberg has been solid in the crease for Ottawa lately, and his workload will likely be heavier than it has been in most of his recent games. The Lightning rank fourth in shots per 60 minutes since Jan. 1st, but they rank 25th in goals per 60 during that stretch. The Lightning should control play, and outshoot the Senators, and therefore Forsberg will likely be forced to make more saves than he’s had to since returning from injury.