Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Wednesday’s Metropolitan Division matchup between the Philadelphia Flyers and New Jersey Devils.
Flyers vs. Devils Odds
- Philadelphia Flyers Moneyline: +155
- New Jersey Devils Moneyline: -190
- Puck Line: Flyers +1.5 (-160), Devils -1.5 (+135)
- Game Total: 5.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Flyers (22-28 SU, 26-25 ATS, 25-24-2 O/U)
The Flyers defeated the Devils 4-2 on Monday in New Jersey and now return home to complete the home-and-home series. Philadelphia has won three straight and four of the last five meetings against New Jersey. The Flyers are 7-5-1 against the Devils since the start of the 2021-22 season.
Philadelphia’s underlying metrics are strong, ranking fifth in even-strength expected goals percentage and ninth in shot share. However, goaltending has been the team’s biggest weakness this season. The Flyers rank last in the league in on-ice save percentage (.875), with Samuel Ersson’s early struggles contributing to the issue.
Ersson went 6-5-2 in his first 15 games with a 3.03 goals against average and an .884 save percentage. Since Dec. 21, though, he has turned things around, going 9-3-1 with a .904 save percentage and a 2.45 GAA. Over the past month, the Flyers rank among the top 10 in goals against per 60 minutes, suggesting their goaltending has finally caught up with their strong overall play.
Since Nov. 6, Philadelphia has posted the league’s best even-strength expected goals percentage, and only four teams have a better shot share. While the Flyers remain mediocre on special teams, both the power play and penalty kill have shown improvement over the last month.
On the injury front, several Flyers players are listed as day-to-day heading into Wednesday’s game. Defenseman Egor Zamula and forward Ryan Poehling are both dealing with injuries, while forward Sean Couturier is sidelined with an illness.
Handicapping the Devils (28-24 SU, 21-31 ATS, 18-32-2 O/U)
New Jersey also has injury concerns, as captain Nico Hischier missed Monday’s game in Philadelphia due to an undisclosed injury, and goaltender Jacob Markstrom is sidelined until early March. However, what’s more concerning is that in terms of five-on-five play, the Devils’ two worst performances have come against the Flyers this season.
On Jan. 18, New Jersey controlled just 13.5 percent of the expected goals and just 37.5 percent of the shots at five-on-five in a 3-1 home loss against Philadelphia. Then, on Monday, the Devils owned just 46 percent of the shots and 34 percent of the expected goals.
The two teams have nearly identical even strength metrics over the last month, but despite the fact that New Jersey has better underlying metrics year-to-date, the Flyers seem to be a big problem for this team.
With Hischier banged up, Jack Hughes reportedly less than 100 percent, and Markstrom out of the lineup altogether, it’s strange that New Jersey is such a big favorite. Not to mention, the Devils rank 15tth in both even strength expected goals percentage and shot attempt percentage over the last month.
The Devils are 14-8-4 at home this season, and 8-5-4 versus Eastern Conference teams. Meanwhile, goaltender Jake Allen is 7-9-1 with a .900 Sv% and a 2.70 GAA, but according to Evolving Hockey, he has saved the team approximately five goals above expected.
Best bet for Devils vs. Flyers
- Philadelphia Flyers Moneyline (+155) at Sports Interaction
Philadelphia hasn’t been a profitable underdog bet on the moneyline this season, but the Devils haven’t been good as home favorites. In fact, New Jersey is the third-least profitable home favorite year-to-date. So, while neither team has lived up to expectations this season, the Flyers are at least playing well, and New Jersey’s current form is not that of a -190 moneyline favorite. Not to mention, Jake Allen has lost both games against the Flyers so far.