Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Tuesday’s matchup between the Montreal Canadiens and Utah Hockey Club.
Canadiens vs. Utah Odds
- Montreal Canadiens Moneyline: +135
- Utah Hockey Club Moneyline: -160
- Puck Line: Montreal +1.5 (-190), Utah -1.5 (+155)
- Game Total: 5.5 (Over –120, Under +100)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping Montreal (20-22 SU, 25-17 ATS, 20-18-4 O/U)
Patrik Laine returned after a four-game absence and scored Montreal’s only goal in a shootout loss to Dallas, extending their points streak to four games. Since Dec. 17, the Canadiens have posted the league’s best win percentage, earning points in 10 of their last 12 games with a 9-2-1 run.
Over their last eight games, Montreal has defeated top teams like Florida, Tampa Bay, Vegas, Colorado, and Washington. However, they’ve gone to overtime or a shootout in four straight games.
Montreal’s success isn’t due to luck. Per Evolving Hockey, they rank 13th in expected goals percentage and eighth in shots (for and against) since Dec. 17. Offensively, only two teams have scored more goals per 60 minutes during this stretch. Defensively, the Canadiens rank third in goals against per 60 and are also top 10 in expected goals against.
Strong goaltending has played a key role. Jakub Dobes, in just three games, has saved nearly four goals above expected and leads the league with a .959 save percentage. Meanwhile, Sam Montembeault ranks seventh in goals saved above expected among goaltenders who’ve faced at least 1,000 unblocked shot attempts.
Handicapping Utah (18-24 SU, 25-16 ATS, 19-19-3 O/U)
Tuesday’s game marks the fourth in a seven-game homestand for Utah, which is 6-9-4 at the Delta Center this season, including 1-2 in its last three games. Utah’s biggest loss of the season came in its first home game when leading scorer Dylan Guenther suffered a lower-body injury. Guenther, one of Utah’s top offensive drivers, is out indefinitely, and the team hasn’t scored more than two goals in a game since his injury.
The timing couldn’t be worse for Utah, which has lost eight of its last 10 games. On Dec. 20, the team was just one point out of a wild card spot after a four-game win streak but has since fallen to fifth, six points behind the Calgary Flames, who hold the second wild card position.
According to Evolving Hockey, Utah ranks 24th in expected goals and shots (for and against) in all situations, which reflects in its scoring rates. The team sits 25th in goals for and 20th in goals against this season. However, Connor Ingram looked sharp in his return from a two-month hiatus, and if both he and Karel Vejmelka provide solid goaltending, Utah might still turn things around. Vejmelka has already been confirmed as the starter for Tuesday’s game.
There is some good news on the injury front, however, as defenseman John Marino has been working his way back from injury and is now considered day-to-day. Marino has been sidelined since the start of the season due to a back injury that required surgery, but he practiced in a regular jersey on Monday.
Best bet for Montreal vs. Utah
- Montreal Canadiens Moneyline (+135) at Sports Interaction
With Laine back for the Canadiens and Guenther sidelined for Utah, it’s hard to justify Utah as a -160 favorite. The team has struggled at home this season, winning just four of 10 games as a home favorite. Meanwhile, Montreal has won nine of 20 games as a road underdog, making it the third-most profitable road underdog this season. The Canadiens are also the second-most profitable moneyline bet overall, earning 9.17 units year-to-date. Utah won the first meeting in overtime (3-2), but at +135 odds, I’m willing to bet that Montreal can even things up on Tuesday.