Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Friday’s matchup between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Buffalo Sabres.
Penguins vs. Sabres Odds
- Pittsburgh Penguins Moneyline: +110
- Buffalo Sabres Moneyline: -130
- Puck Line: Penguins +1.5 (-225), Sabres -1.5 (+185)
- Game Total: 6 (Over -120, Under +100)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Penguins (18-28 SU, 22-24 ATS, 26-18-2 O/U)
Pittsburgh will look to end a three-game slide when it visits Buffalo on Friday, but it has failed to do so on two previous occasions, so all bets are off. In fact, Pittsburgh has only won two of its past 10 games. The Penguins are still in the Wild Card race, but with a 1-3-3 record in January, they are just five points ahead of the last-place Sabres.
The Penguins waived goaltender Tristan Jarry on Thursday after another poor performance, adding to the long list of mistakes made by general manager Kyle Dubas. Jarry’s poor play is just one reason that the Penguins own an NHL-worst 3.62 goals against per 60 minutes. The Penguins also rank among the bottom-10 teams in expected goals against and the bottom-five teams when it comes to suppressing shots on goal. In other words, Friday’s starter, Alex Nedeljkovic, will have his work cut out for him.
Sidney Crosby isn’t going down without a fight, though, as he leads the Penguins with 48 points (12-36–48) in 46 games, and his effort on the power play (17 points) is one reason Pittsburgh ranks sixth on the man advantage with a 25.56 percent success rate. However, the Penguins have been a below-average offensive team overall due to their poor even-strength scoring rates. Pittsburgh ranks 19th in goals per 60 minutes at even strength, despite ranking among the top-10 teams in shot attempts and expected goals.
Handicapping the Sabres (17-27 SU, 22-22 ATS, 23-14-7 O/U)
Buffalo is looking to keep its momentum going heading into the weekend, with three victories in its last four games. The Sabres dropped their only meeting versus the Penguins so far this season, losing 6-5 in overtime in Pittsburgh on Oct. 16. Buffalo has gone 6-4 straight-up since experiencing an NHL-worst 13-game losing streak between Nov. 27 and Dec. 21.
However, while the Sabres’ 57 percent goal share indicates improved play, the team’s underlying metrics leave a lot to be desired. According to Evolving Hockey, since Buffalo ended its losing streak, the team ranks 30th in shot attempt percentage and 26th in expected goal percentage. That said, the Sabres’ special teams have been a driving force behind their turnaround. Since Dec. 23, Buffalo ranks fourth on the penalty kill (88 percent) and seventh on the power play (30.8 percent).
The Sabres will likely roll with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in goal for a fifth straight game, and believe it or not, he’s been solid this season considering how bad the Sabres have been defensively. Buffalo ranks 24th in shot attempts against and 25th in expected goals against year-to-date, but Luukkonen hasn’t been the problem. Per Evolving Hockey, the 25-year-old has performed about as well as you would expect an average goaltender to perform based on the quality of shots that he’s had to face.
Best bet for Penguins vs. Sabres
- Ryan McLeod Over 0.5 Points (+125) at Betano
Sabres head coach Lindy Ruff swapped Ryan McLeod and Dylan Cozens ahead of Wednesday’s win over the Hurricanes, and the move paid off. Both players scored in the game, but McLeod stole the show with his hat trick. Unlike Cozens, McLeod doesn’t have a spot on the power play, but at +125 odds, he’s a solid bet to register a point playing alongside Tage Thompson and Jason Zucker on the team’s top forward line. The 25-year-old has five points in his last 10 games, including four goals and one assist in his last three outings.