<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Handicapping the Central Division Standings</h2>



<p>Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps the wide-open Central Division standings.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Winnipeg Jets (18-5)</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><em>Projected Points: 111</em></li>



<li><em>Playoff Odds: 99%</em></li>
</ul>



<p><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/line-combinations">Winnipeg </a>has dropped four of its last seven games, which isn’t surprising given their stretch of 11 road games in 13 outings. While the <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/news">Jets</a> boast the league’s best goal share, their underlying metrics are less impressive. According to Evolving Hockey, they rank 15th in expected goal share and barely control play with a 50% shot share.</p>



<p>That said, their success is built on a sustainable foundation of strong defense and elite goaltending. <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/players/news/connor-hellebuyck/2465">Connor Hellebuyck</a> leads the league in goals saved above expected for the second straight season. Meanwhile, their offense hasn’t suffered prolonged slumps, rarely going cold for more than a couple of games. Though they may not be the best team in the Central Division, their hot start has raised their odds of winning the division to 44%.</p><div class="injected-ad injected-video" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="0" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="143"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Minnesota Wild (14-4-4)</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><em>Projected Points: 106</em></li>



<li><em>Playoff Odds: 97%</em></li>
</ul>



<p><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations">Minnesota</a> boasts the league’s second-best goal share, driven by <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/players/news/filip-gustavsson/4565">Filip Gustavsson</a>’s stellar play—ranking seventh in goals saved above expected and second in save percentage. Unlike Winnipeg, the <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/news">Wild</a> excel defensively, ranking second in expected goals against per 60 minutes and allowing the fewest goals per 60.</p>



<p>However, there are concerns about their ceiling. Even with an MVP-caliber season from <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/players/news/kirill-kaprizov/26611">Kirill Kaprizov</a>, it’s unclear if the Wild can rise to the top of the standings. Kaprizov and Gustavsson have often carried the team, as seen in Wednesday’s 1-0 win over the Sabres, where Kaprizov scored the lone goal. The Wild have been cruising, but no team is as dominant as they seem during a hot streak.</p>



<p>Still, I think the Wild are more of a contender than the betting market suggests. Minnesota’s regular season point total is currently sitting at 101.5, which is considerably lower than what I’m now forecasting for the team. Minnesota currently has the best expected goals percentage (all situations) in the division, according to Evolving Hockey. There’s also quite a bit of value in their +450 division odds. My projections suggest Minnesota will win the Central Division approximately 25 percent of the time.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="1" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="196"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Dallas Stars (13-8)</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><em>Projected Points: 103</em></li>



<li><em>Playoff Odds: 93%</em></li>
</ul>



<p><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations">Dallas</a> currently ranks as the fifth-best team in expected goals at five-on-five, but they are neck-and-neck with the Wild in that category, and Minnesota has gotten off to a better start and Dallas only has one game in hand. The Stars have also dropped some games that they should have won, which is something they can’t afford to do if they want to finish first in the Central Division.</p>



<p>The Stars are already outperforming expected goals on offense and defense, so I’m not sure how much more they can improve unless something starts to click with <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/players/news/jason-robertson/2793">Jason Robertson</a> and <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/players/news/roope-hintz/2863">Roope Hintz</a>, who have been massive disappointments.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Robertson and Hintz have 13 points in 21 and 20 games, respectively. <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/players/news/wyatt-johnston/30835">Wyatt Johnston</a> is also on pace to score just 12 goals this season after scoring 24 and 32 in the two previous campaigns and 10 goals in 19 playoff games last spring. Fortunately, for Dallas, it has solid scoring depth and the offense should start to balance out more going forward. However, I don’t think there’s any value in backing Dallas to exceed expectations at this point.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="2" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="185"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Colorado Avalanche (13-10)</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><em>Projected Points: 101</em></li>



<li><em>Playoff Odds: 93%</em></li>
</ul>



<p><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations">Colorado</a> is a tough team to figure out. The Avalanche have definitely been improving, going 13-6 straight-up since starting the season 0-4, but their offense, particularly at five-on-five, hasn’t been potent enough to win convincingly on most nights. Last season, only 13 of Colorado’s 50 wins were one-goal games, but this season, more than half of its wins have been one-goal games.</p>



<p>One reason for this is that Colorado is scoring almost one goal fewer per 60 minutes at five-on-five compared to last season. The Avalanche will likely improve on offense now that <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/players/news/valeri-nichushkin/2142">Valeri Nichushkin</a> is back at full speed, though. The 29-year-old has two goals and three assists in his last two games.&nbsp;</p>



<p>However, goaltending is still a concern. <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/players/news/alexandar-georgiev/4617">Alexandar Georgiev</a> hasn’t been as bad as he was to start the season, but he hasn’t really been able to string together two above average performances this season, and that’s not a good sign.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="3" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="154"></div>



<p>Of course, Colorado is about to have an easier stretch of games. The Avalanche will play 12 of their next 19 games against teams that are not projected to make the playoffs, which means they could make up a lot of ground, but 10 of their next 14 games are on the road, so they won’t have the advantage of playing at a higher altitude.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Utah Hockey Club (9-10-3)</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><em>Projected Points: 85</em></li>



<li><em>Playoff Odds: 13%</em></li>
</ul>



<p>The <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-hockey-club/line-combinations">Utah Hockey Club</a> turned heads when they won their first three games in a row, but that was as far as adrenaline took them. Since then, Utah has gone 6-13 straight-up. It’s not all bad, though, and the team is probably unfortunate to be where it is. According to Evolving Hockey, Utah ranks fourth in expected goals percentage at five-on-five and 13th in shot attempt percentage.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="4" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="132"></div>



<p>In other words, the Utah Hockey Club controls play more often than not, but they just don’t seem to have enough talent to get two points on most nights. Utah is slightly above average thanks to shot suppression and goaltending, but it’s below average on offense, both in terms of scoring rates and peripherals.</p>



<p>Utah has improved since it was the Arizona Coyotes, but the Club haven’t improved the things that matter most: scoring rates for and against. The team is scoring fewer goals, and allowing more goals, than it did last season. I won’t count them out of a playoff spot, but I certainly wouldn’t bet on them to make the playoffs at +275 odds when they should be closer to +700 odds.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">St. Louis Blues (11-12-1)</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><em>Projected Points: 83</em></li>



<li><em>Playoff Odds: 8%</em></li>
</ul>



<p>New head coach <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/can-the-blues-turn-things-around-under-jim-montgomery">Jim Montgomery</a> has led the <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations">St. Louis Blues</a> to two impressive victories since taking over behind the bench, defeating the New York Rangers (5-2) and shutting out the New Jersey Devils (3-0) on the road. The Blues will return home for one game before heading out on a Western Canadian road trip that will see them visit Winnipeg, Calgary, Edmonton, and Vancouver.&nbsp;</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="5" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="189"></div>



<p>This will be a crucial trip for St. Louis, as the team has yet to string together three consecutive wins this season. However, while Montgomery has seemingly provided the team with a boost, I don’t believe&nbsp;there’s enough here to make a serious playoff push. The Blues grade out as a bottom-five team in most categories and most teams have two or three games in hand on them. That’s not to say I won’t back the Blues on a game-to-game basis, though.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Nashville Predators (7-12-4)</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><em>Projected Points: 83</em></li>



<li><em>Playoff Odds: 7%</em></li>
</ul>



<p>Historically, teams in a playoff spot by American Thanksgiving qualify more than 75% of the time. The <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations">Predators</a>, however, are nowhere near contention and lack games in hand. With just seven wins in 23 games, they sit dead last in the Western Conference.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Nashville’s chances of turning things around before it’s too late are slim, to say the least, with various models placing the Predators’ playoff odds between 15-20%, while my forecast gives them a seven percent chance.&nbsp;</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="6" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="159"></div>



<p>However, sportsbooks like Sports Interaction list <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/predators-jeremy-lauzon-out-week-to-week">Nashville</a> at +180 to make the playoffs, implying a 35% chance. For the wager to be worthwhile, they’d need closer to a 50-50 shot. Instead, the -225 odds for Nashville to miss the playoffs are far more advantageous, albeit chalky. It’s time to count the Predators out.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Chicago Blackhawks (8-12-2)</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Projected Points: 70</li>



<li>Playoff Odds: 0%</li>
</ul>



<p><a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations">Chicago</a> has shown flashes against top teams, with recent wins over the Stars, Panthers, and Wild, as well as earlier victories against Edmonton, Colorado, and Los Angeles. The <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/news">Blackhawks</a> should improve on last season’s 52-point finish; my forecast has them averaging 70 points, however, they’ve failed to meet betting market expectations and likely won’t end up doing so. Same goes for <a href="https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=186532&amp;action=edit">Connor Bedard</a> who has 16 points in 22 games, but he’s not performing at the expected point-per-game pace and ranks just eighth on the team in goals with four.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="7" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="143"></div>



<p>Chicago’s underlying numbers remain troubling. The Blackhawks rank 32nd in shot attempt percentage and 29th in expected goals percentage at five-on-five. Goaltenders <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/players/news/petr-mrazek/1834">Petr Mrazek</a> and <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/players/news/arvid-soderblom/34603">Arvid Soderblom</a> have helped keep them afloat, ranking 21st and sixth, respectively, in goals saved above expected. While the Blackhawks’ defense has been decent, it’s unlikely they’ll maintain their top-10 standing in five-on-five goals against, especially with no timetable for Laurent Brossoit’s return.</p>



<p><em>All odds via Sports Interaction.</em></p>


Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck