<p>My First Article for DFO. My name is Morgan; I am excited to be here. I win some, I lose some, but like everyone I try to win more than I lose!</p>



<p>Thursday, December 4th, NHL slate. Let’s make some educated guesses for tonight and get to it.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Top Stack of the Day</strong></h2>



<p><strong>Carolina Power Play 1 (Svechnikov, Staal, Aho, Jarvis, Gostisbehere)</strong></p>



<p>I was on Florida on Tuesday versus Toronto, and they failed as Joseph “Wall” made the Panthers look silly in a 4-1 win.</p>



<p>The point remains, however, and I’m going back to the well, the Leafs’ defence stinks. They are the 4th-worst 5v5 defence tonight and the 3rd-worst PP defence, while dealing with injuries to three of their top 6 defensemen.</p>



<p>Carolina has quietly come on offensively in their last 10 games, and if you play Staal, he can offer significant salary savings for exposure to a top Power Play. Carolina’s Power Play itself hasn’t been great lately as they have done most of their damage 5v5, but because Carolina’s Power Play hasn’t been great, I love this spot as a get right versus the Leafs.</p><div class="injected-ad injected-video" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="0" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="183"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Top Value Stack of the Day</strong></h2>



<p><strong>Minnesota 1 (Hartman 4.0k DK, Zuccarello 5.2k DK, Kaprizov 8.6k DK)</strong></p>



<p>I mentioned CAR3 when discussing CAR PP1, and I think they are in a great spot today. In the interest of not being redundant, however, let’s stretch the definition of value and go for MIN1 today (normally I will highlight a cheaper stack, but the pricing is pretty tight today).</p>



<p>Calgary has a decent defence overall, but a terrible penalty-kill, and with Marco Rossi, Marcus Foligno and Vinnie Hinostroza out, we get MIN1 at a pretty big discount, especially Hartman and Zucarello. If you skip Kaprizov and plug in one of the defensemen for a 3-man stack like Zeev Buium, Brock Faber or Jonas Brodin, you can get a great 3-man at a low price.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>TOP C Value</strong></h2>



<p><strong>Nick Paul, Tampa Bay Lightning (3.5k DK)</strong></p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="1" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="133"></div>



<p>This would also be Staal if I hadn’t already mentioned him 20 times. Hartman I also prefer over Paul, but I highlighted him with MIN1. Paul might be the highest-owned cheap option at C on the slate, but he deserves it. He will be skating with TB PP1 tonight, which makes for a decent stack with TB2 flanked by Jake Guentzel and Oliver Bjorkstrand. NSH isn’t going to scare anyone, so this is a great spot overall.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Top W Value</strong></h2>



<p><strong>Trevor Moore, Los Angeles Kings (3.2k DK)</strong></p>



<p>The Kings get a cake home matchup vs. the Blackhawks, and even though the total is only 5.5, Trevor Moore specifically is far too cheap. He is priced like the 3rd-line winger he has been this year, not the 1st-line winger he will be tonight. His time on ice should be 3-5 minutes higher than it was, and he doesn’t even have to be involved with putting the puck in the net to make value.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="2" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="159"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Top D Value</strong></h2>



<p><strong>Hampus Lindholm, Boston Bruins (3.8k DK)</strong></p>



<p>Boston is missing Pastrnak again tonight, and McAvoy isn’t due back for a while. They are a heavily injured team that is battling and not quite finishing in the end. Lindholm tonight gets to do his best McAvoy impersonation, quarterbacking PP1 for Boston. Hampus isn’t as spry as he used to be, but he should get a decent amount of ice time in what should be a high-event game overall.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Top G Value</strong></h2>



<p><strong>Filip Gustavsson, Minnesota Wild (7.8k DK)</strong></p>



<p>There are some great spots at goalie tonight, but for value, Gustavsson really stands out. He probably should be priced at least $400 more, in the Sergey Bobrovsky, Stuart Skinner, Darcy Kuemper range, and is instead priced with Elvis Merzlikins and Cam Talbot. Calgary is legitimately one of the worse offenses in the league (even if they have been getting a little unlucky). This is just a misprice by DraftKings that you can take advantage of.</p><div class="injected-ad" data-nn-ad-tech-injection-count="3" data-nn-ad-tech-max-gap="130" data-nn-ad-tech-current-gap="158"></div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Bonus G Value</strong></h2>



<p><strong>Juuse Saros, Nashville Predators (7.2k DK)</strong></p>



<p>Saros will take the away-ice tonight against the Florida Panthers as the second-highest money line dogs on the night. Low-priced Woll stood on his head on Tuesday and put in a great result in the same spot. If Saros can replicate that, and he likely won’t, he has slate-breaking potential if you are fading the Panthers anyway (for whatever reason). Look here for a cheap goalie with GPP-winning upside.</p>
