The NHL is a league on the rise.

Franchise values are exploding. The salary cap is set to continue to skyrocket annually. Record-breaking contracts have arrived. Attendance is at an all-time high. Expansion fees are up to $2 billion.

When it comes to the fastest game on Earth, everything is soaring. Well, almost everything.

League-wide scoring has experienced its biggest two-year drop in nearly 20 years. It would be premature to say the sky is falling, but something will need to change soon or the NHL’s recent run of 120-point seasons and 50-goal scorers could go the way of the wooden stick.

As the NHL embarks on its 108th season, we’re exploring the trend, understanding the reasons why scoring is down, assessing the impact, and searching for a cure for the offensive power outage.

📉 The Trend

At first glance of the visual above, the trend doesn’t appear all that alarming. In fact, 2024-25 featured the fifth most goals per game (6.02) of the cap era’s 20 seasons. Relax, pal, you may be thinking.

But let’s look a little closer…

You’ll notice the two logos representing the NHL’s only two expansion teams since 2000: Vegas Golden Knights (2017) and Seattle Kraken (2021). What you’ll also notice is a significant spike in offense in the seasons that each new franchise entered the league.

Aside from 2005-06 — when the league instituted a gauntlet of goal-friendly rule changes and awarded the most power plays in NHL history — the 2017-18 and 2021-22 seasons represent the biggest one-year offensive bumps in 44 years. Expansion has masked a dirty little secret: diluting the talent pool has provided the league’s only meaningful scoring infusions of the last two decades.

Without those two expansion seasons temporarily inflating offense, how low might scoring be today?

🔎 The Reasons

Earlier this year, I identified a handful of offense-friendly trends playing out to the extreme in the NHL. The trends held up over the course of the full season. Incredibly, goals per game have gone down despite the following developments in 2024-25:

By far the most empty-net goals in league history were scored. There were 519 empty net goals scored last season, nearly three times as many as 20 years ago.
A record 72% of games tied after regulation were decided in overtime. That’s 107 fewer shootouts than the league’s peak number of shootouts in 2009-10.
Power plays converted at 21.4% — the highest rate in 39 years. The last time power plays were this successful, NHL goalies rocked an .874 save percentage and Wayne Gretzky scored a record 215 points. The effectiveness, however, is negated by the fewest power plays on record.
League-wide save percentage fell to .900, its lowest in nearly 30 years. The decline in save percentage is offset by the fewest shots on goal per game (28.1) of the cap era.

So, what does it all mean?

These trends tell us that expansion, evolving power play tactics, early goalie pulls to enhance the odds of tying close games, and the 2015 shift to 3-on-3 overtime have collectively kept offense from total collapse in the last decade.

The NHL has been unable to organically sustain 5-on-5 offense — its most common game state.

With the effects of expansion fading and little room left to squeeze out goals from existing power plays, empty net situations, and overtime, it’s 5-on-5 goals that need to hold their own. But it’s not happening: the two-year drop in 5-on-5 scoring rates above is the biggest in 18 seasons.

👊🏻 The Impact

A logical next question might be: Who cares?

After all, the NHL has survived previous offensive dips. There are always ebbs and flows to any sport as part of its evolution. The league has star power and continues to grow its global footprint. It’s thriving economically, and labor peace is secured through 2030.

But a low-scoring NHL is like movie popcorn without butter. It’s still great and all, but imagine how much better it would be… with butter. When offense goes sleepy, the superstars don’t stand out as much. Game-breaking talent doesn’t break games as often. Lead changes and comebacks are rarer. That star power? It doesn’t shine as brightly because goals are less frequent.

Consider Alex Ovechkin, the greatest goal scorer of all-time. In a 13-season stretch of his career, the NHL only had a dozen 50-goal seasons… Ovechkin had six and everyone else had six. So, the criteria to score 50? Either be the greatest sniper ever or have a near-perfect season. When NHL scoring drops near or below six goals per game, 50-goal seasons all but disappear.

Check out the last three seasons compared to two past extreme scoring years. Which look more fun?

	2024-25	2023-24	2022-23	2014-15	1992-93
Goals per Game	6.02	6.16	6.29	5.32	7.25
Most Points, Individual	121	144	153	87	160
10th-Place in Points	91	98	102	73	123
100-Point Seasons	6	9	11	0	21
Most Goals, Individual	52	69	64	53	76
10th-Place in Goals	39	44	42	33	54
50-Goal Seasons	1	4	5	1	14

Since 2022-23, the quiet downward shift in goals has had a significant impact. 100-point seasons dropped from 11 to six. 50-goal seasons shrunk from five to one. The league doesn’t need 21 players to hit 100 points like the offensive palooza of 1992-93, but 87-point Art Ross Trophies like in 2014-15 aren’t good for business. We’ve enjoyed a happy medium in the post-pandemic NHL. But it’s evaporating in front of us.

Nikita Kucherov’s Art Ross-winning 121 points last year? If scoring drops to the levels of a decade earlier, that’s only 107 points. Leon Draisaitl’s Rocket-winning 52 goals? That’s 46 goals 10 seasons ago. Unremarkable totals for the world’s best.

Hey, maybe you love watching Nick Seeler block shots. Or dream of 3-1 games where your favorite star chipped in one assist. No judgment. As a writer and fan, it’s not for me. In an NHL where top goalies are playing less and less, the star equilibrium is best tilted today toward the mitts of sniping forwards and not the shin pads of defensive defensemen or the chest protectors of goaltending tandems.

🔨 The Fix

But enough complaining. If we’re not part of the solution, we’re part of the problem. What can be done?

From the team perspective, it would be easy to preach offense and lean further into available data on how goals are scored. If goal count is fading, prioritize offense. But that’s shortsighted. Any credible NHL organization is already doing that. And not only are they doing that, they are spending an equal amount of time on goal prevention. Teams don’t care how they win… they just want to win.

So, what can the Commissioner’s Office and the NHL/NHLPA Competition Committee do?

🚪 Door #1: Expand

It’s the easiest answer because expansion has historically boosted offense and because it’s already in the works — Austin, Atlanta, Houston, Indianapolis, and New Orleans are reportedly among cities considering prospective bids. Owners are drooling at the thought of two new franchises lining their pockets with a total of $4 billion to be split 32 ways, or $125 million per owner. That’s serious cheddar. The NHL Players’ Association would take a few dozen more job openings too.

But it’s not foolproof.

The NHL does not have 32 franchises in exceptional financial health. The rising salary cap isn’t a welcome development for teams that can’t spend to the ceiling, either. It’s just creates payroll parity. And expansion doesn’t always lead to more scoring — the dual additions of the Columbus Blue Jackets and Minnesota Wild in 2000-01 led to nearly 5% fewer goals over two seasons. Even if future expansion bumps goal rates, the Vegas and Seattle additions have proven it’s only a temporary band-aid.

🚪 Door #2: Call more penalties.

Easier said than done. Many fans feel there are already a lot of flimsy calls right now. Publicly, the league has expressed that its officials aren’t missing calls — the players simply aren’t committing infractions. 2024-25 was the least penalized season on record as teams averaged 2.7 chances per game. For perspective, the post-lockout 2005-06 season featured 5.9. That’s not combined. That’s 5.9 power plays each. It was mayhem but it briefly generated the much-needed goodwill and goal injection at the time.

Even if more penalties are called, there should be real fear that power play success cools off soon. If there have never been fewer penalties and power plays are scoring at prolific rates, what happens if penalty killing pushes back in the special teams battle? In a league where every fifth penalty is a goal, calling more penalties is logical. But it risks further eliminating physicality once the players adapt.

🚪 Door #3: Overhaul power play dynamics.

Serving the full two minutes of a minor penalty was the norm until the 1950s Montreal Canadiens‘ power play broke hockey. But in an era where teams get only two or three power plays per game, it’s an easy measure to adopt. It might lead to coaches leaving their first units on longer, resulting in aggressive, desperate play to score multiple goals, further adding to ‘shorties.’ Pairing the change with the PWHL’s exciting jailbreak rule could lead to a much more aggressive approach to special teams. After all, high-risk hockey drives goals.

It wouldn’t meaningfully change 5-on-5 play but it would lead to less of it, with power plays consuming a greater slice of a game. The potential downside? With refs having little to call these days and players practising discipline, power plays might become rarer given they could create multiple goals. But if taking penalties became a game-changing dagger, perhaps that opens up the game further to help 5-on-5 play, all but eliminating obstruction. A lot of maybes, but the ideas are worth exploring, or at least experimenting with in the AHL.

🚪 Doors #4 to 100… Get creative.

The first three doors might not be big enough or permanent enough changes to stop the offensive skid. Bigger nets? A one-minute window per game where a trailing team can add a player without pulling their goalie (a ‘Power Surge’™️)? Designating the last minute of each period as three-on-three action? Certain contact penalties becoming penalty shots instead of power plays?

Maybe you have your own creative ideas. They all might seem radical, but so did the forward pass, the designated hitter, and the three-point shot. Major League Baseball is a sport of extreme tradition, but its bold rule changes in 2023 have been celebrated improvements despite initial pushback.

Reminder: Sports are meant to be entertaining. Goals drive entertainment.

🥅 Closing Thoughts

Poke holes as you see fit in all of the above. But the NHL’s scoring rates, its superstar stat lines, and its action levels are quietly moving the wrong way for fan experience. It’s clear that after expansion settles, the league can’t sustain 5-on-5 offense. Record empty-net goals, overtime format tweaks and lethal power plays are maxing out. Something has to give.

Ovechkin had one 60-goal season. Evgeni Malkin had one 50-goal season. Patrick Kane peaked at 66 assists. We never saw Sidney Crosby break 120 points. It’s been electric seeing 60 goals, 100 assists and 140 points become attainable targets for Connor McDavid’s generation. The NHL needs to preserve this level of offense or it will all but ensure Connor Bedard, Macklin Celebrini, and Ivan Demidov never get the chance to reach such heights.

This isn’t a call for 1980s hockey with 40 goals being unremarkable and 10 power plays per game. But the NHL needs to reverse its scoring slide or risk stifling the talents of its most marketable teams and superstars. In a sport where everything is moving upward, goals can’t afford to go downward.

Data from Hockey-Reference, Natural Stat Trick, and NHL.com

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