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NHL player prop bets (Feb. 4): Back Caufield to score against NHL’s worst defensive team
Nick Martin
Feb 4, 2025
Montreal Canadiens right wing Cole Caufield (13) waits for a face-off against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the first period at Bell Centre.
Credit: David Kirouac-Imagn Images

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player props available on Tuesday night.

Brent Burns Over 2 Shots on Goal: -105 BetVictor

Burns’ shot volume has dropped this season compared to his career averages, and also compared to where it has been previously throughout his tenure with the Carolina Hurricanes. The 39-year old is still averaging 21:28 of ice time per game, and 2.33 shots per contest.

However, he has rarely skated on the top power play unit this season, as is expected to be the case in Tuesday’s matchup with the Winnipeg Jets. While I’m not sold on the idea that he is a better power play quarterback than Shayne Gostisbehere, the Hurricanes power play has been struggling of late, and it certainly makes sense to see head coach Rod Brind’Amour try to shake things up.

Burns has attempted 16.35 shots per 60 this season, but many of those are borderline attempts from the point which do not make it on target. However, in five-on-four situations Burns averages 12.08 shots on goal per 60, which is higher than Mikko Rantanen, Sebastien Aho, and Seth Jarvis, who are also on the top unit.

The Jets have allowed 27.49 shots against per 60 this season. In terms of shot volume allowed, they are better than league average, but not elite.

Burns’ usage on the top power play should boost his shot volume considerably, and at -105, I see value backing him to record over two shots on goal.

Cole Caufield Anytime Goalscorer: +140 Sports Interaction

After a surprisingly dominant stretch of play throughout late December and early January, the Montreal Canadiens enter their matchup versus the lowly San Jose Sharks in the midst of a five-game losing streak.

Part of the problem recently has been a lack of productivity from their leading goal-scorer in Caufield, who has scored just two goals over the last 10 games.

Caufield is still generating plenty of chances, however, as during that span he has 35 shots on goal from 48 attempts on goal, and 4.32 expected goals.

A matchup versus Alexandar Georgiev should provide Caufield a great opportunity to snap his skid and get one past arguably the league’s worst full-time goaltender. Georgiev holds a save percentage of just .877, and has allowed 3.64 goals against per game.

Vitek Vanecek could potentially get the start for the Sharks, which would not be all that much of an upgrade. Vanecek holds an .885 save percentage and 3.84 GAA in 11 appearances at the NHL level this season.

Since January 1st, San Jose has allowed 4.17 xGA/60, which is the worst mark in the NHL by a wide margin. The Sharks have also allowed 4.00 goals against per game in that span.

It still seems entirely fair to view Caufield as one of the best finishers in the league, and at +140, I believe we are getting a good price to back him getting right versus the league’s worst defensive side.

You can follow all of Nick’s hockey bets on the Action Network app!